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Citi Revamps AI Forecasting Model After Snowflake's Strong Q4 AI Revenue Surge

Mar 02, 2026 16:24 UTC
SNOW, MSFT, NVDA

Citi has updated its quantitative model for technology equities following Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) reporting a 68% year-over-year increase in AI-driven data cloud revenue during Q4 2025. The adjustment reflects growing confidence in AI-infused data infrastructure as a core growth engine.

  • Snowflake (SNOW) generated $378 million in AI-related revenue in Q4 2025, up 68% YoY.
  • Citi revised its tech model to reflect AI-driven data infrastructure as a primary growth vector.
  • SNOW’s enterprise customer acquisition rose 31% in Q4 2025, with AI use cases as a major driver.
  • Citi upgraded SNOW from Neutral to Buy based on improved margin and retention metrics.
  • Microsoft (MSFT) and NVIDIA (NVDA) received 5% and 7% revenue forecast increases, respectively.
  • AI-optimized data platforms now projected to contribute 42% of cloud revenue growth in 2026.

Citi has revised its predictive framework for cloud and AI stocks, citing Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) as a pivotal indicator of sector-wide momentum. The investment bank noted that SNOW recorded $378 million in AI-related revenue in the fourth quarter of 2025, up from $226 million in the same period the prior year, marking a 68% year-over-year growth. This performance, driven by expanded adoption of Snowpark and Snowflake’s AI Data Cloud, exceeded internal expectations and prompted a reevaluation of AI infrastructure valuations. The bank’s updated model now assigns a higher weight to companies with integrated AI data platforms, particularly within the cloud infrastructure and analytics space. SNOW’s 31% increase in enterprise customer acquisition during Q4—driven largely by AI use cases—has been factored into the new framework. Citi now projects that AI-optimized data platforms will account for 42% of total cloud revenue growth in 2026, up from 28% in 2024. As a result, Citi has upgraded its rating on Snowflake from Neutral to Buy, citing improved margin expansion potential and stronger customer retention in AI-heavy verticals. The update also influenced the firm’s outlook for Microsoft (MSFT) and NVIDIA (NVDA), where Citi raised near-term revenue forecasts by 5% and 7%, respectively, due to their deep integration with AI data ecosystems. These changes are expected to impact asset allocation strategies across institutional portfolios focused on cloud and AI innovation.

This article is based on publicly available information and reflects a financial institution’s model update following company performance metrics and strategic assessments. No third-party data providers or proprietary sources are cited.
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