Crude oil and gasoline benchmarks jumped sharply as active warfare in the Eastern Mediterranean disrupted maritime supply routes, triggering a supply shock. Futures contracts for West Texas Intermediate and gasoline surged over 8% in a single session.
- Crude oil futures (CL=F) rose 8.3% to $89.40 per barrel on March 2, 2026.
- Gasoline futures (HG=F) surged 8.7% to $2.97 per gallon amid disrupted shipments.
- Approximately 1.8 million barrels per day of crude and refined products affected.
- CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) climbed to 32.4, signaling heightened market stress.
- At least 14 tankers rerouted or canceled voyages due to conflict near the Suez Canal.
- Refineries in Italy, Greece, and Turkey reported reduced feedstock deliveries.
Global crude oil and gasoline prices surged on March 2, 2026, as ongoing military conflict in the Eastern Mediterranean led to the rerouting and suspension of several major oil shipments. The conflict, centered near the Strait of Tiran and the Suez Canal, has caused at least 14 tankers to delay or cancel voyages, affecting approximately 1.8 million barrels per day of crude and refined product throughput. As a result, the CL=F futures contract climbed to $89.40 per barrel, marking an 8.3% increase from the previous close. Concurrently, the HG=F gasoline futures index rose 8.7% to $2.97 per gallon, reflecting tight refining margins and reduced supply availability in key European and North African markets. The escalation has heightened market anxiety, with the CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) spiking to 32.4, its highest level since late 2024. Traders are now pricing in a sustained supply disruption, with energy analysts warning of potential regional shortages by mid-Q2. Refineries in Italy, Greece, and Turkey reported reduced feedstock deliveries, prompting emergency inventory drawdowns. The International Energy Agency has begun assessing contingency plans, including the release of strategic reserve volumes, though no formal decision has been made. The ripple effects extend beyond energy markets. Higher fuel costs are expected to increase transportation and logistics expenses, contributing to upward pressure on consumer prices. Inflation expectations for the eurozone and the U.S. have risen by 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively, over the past 48 hours. Major energy firms including ExxonMobil, Shell, and TotalEnergies have activated crisis response teams to monitor shipment risks and adjust trading strategies. The conflict's duration and escalation remain uncertain, but market participants are preparing for sustained volatility in energy pricing.