Colonial First State Adjusts US Tech Holdings Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Oil Surge

Colonial First State, one of Australia’s largest fund managers, is conducting a comprehensive review of its US tech portfolio, signaling a potential retreat from high-growth equities in favor of more defensive assets. The move follows a sharp rise in global oil prices, with crude futures (CL=F) surging past $98 per barrel in early March 2026, fueling inflation concerns and increasing risk premiums across equity markets. The fund’s internal assessments indicate that exposure to US tech firms—particularly Apple (AAPL), which represents a significant portion of its equity allocation—now carries elevated tail risks due to geopolitical instability in the Middle East and potential supply chain disruptions. The reassessment comes as the CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) climbed to 24.6, its highest level since late 2023, reflecting heightened investor anxiety. Colonial First State’s analysis suggests that a sustained oil price above $95 could trigger a broader market repricing, especially in tech and discretionary sectors. As a result, the fund is considering reducing its current US tech weighting from 22% to below 15% by mid-2026, reallocating capital toward energy and defense-related equities that have shown resilience amid regional tensions. This shift could have ripple effects across Wall Street, where tech stocks have driven market performance in recent quarters. A reduction in institutional demand for names like AAPL could pressure valuations, particularly in the Nasdaq 100, which has already shown signs of volatility following the fund’s internal disclosures. Market participants note that the move reflects a broader trend among global investors to hedge against both geopolitical shocks and commodity-driven inflation.