U.S. crude oil futures climbed to $87.40 per barrel, their highest level since early 2025, after reports of an Iranian attack on a U.S.-flagged oil tanker in the Persian Gulf. The incident triggered a sharp spike in market volatility and elevated energy risk premiums.
- CL=F crude futures hit $87.40 per barrel, the highest since March 2025
- XLE ETF rose 3.8% on heightened energy sector risk
- ^VIX spiked 18% to 24.6, indicating increased market volatility
- Brent crude climbed to $91.20 per barrel amid supply concerns
- Traders assign 22% probability to supply disruption in Persian Gulf over next month
- U.S. military increased patrols in response to the reported attack
U.S. crude oil futures, tracked by the CL=F contract, reached $87.40 per barrel on Thursday, marking a 1-year high and a 5.3% daily gain. The surge followed unconfirmed reports of an Iranian drone or missile strike on a U.S.-registered oil tanker operating in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil flows. Although no casualties or vessel damage were confirmed at the time, the event intensified fears of supply disruptions in one of the world’s most volatile maritime zones. The attack, if verified, represents a significant escalation in regional tensions and underscores the vulnerability of global energy infrastructure to state-sponsored actions. The XLE energy sector ETF rose 3.8%, reflecting investor anxiety over potential supply shocks, while the CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) jumped 18% to 24.6, signaling heightened risk aversion across equity markets. Market analysts note that even without direct damage to shipping, the mere threat of disruption has prompted a re-pricing of oil risk. The benchmark Brent crude also climbed to $91.20 per barrel, narrowing the spread between global benchmarks. As of Friday morning, U.S. crude futures remained elevated near $86.90, with traders pricing in a 22% probability of a supply interruption in the region over the next 30 days. Energy traders and insurers are re-evaluating routing strategies, with several major shipping firms rerouting vessels away from the southern end of the Persian Gulf. The U.S. Department of Defense has increased maritime patrols in the region, and the Pentagon confirmed it is monitoring the situation closely. The event could prompt long-term shifts in global oil logistics and insurance premiums, particularly for tankers traversing high-risk corridors.