Renowned investor Howard Marks advises investors to resist emotional reactions to geopolitical conflicts, emphasizing long-term strategy over short-term volatility. He highlights energy and defense stocks as structural outperformers during turbulent periods.
- Howard Marks warns against emotional reactions to war and conflict in investing decisions.
- Crude oil prices (CL=F) have remained within $78–$83 per barrel over the past 30 days.
- Defense sector equities like LMT and NOC have seen an 18% rise in average daily trading volume since 2026 began.
- The VIX has averaged 19.4 over the past 60 days, indicating elevated volatility.
- Apple (AAPL) has delivered a 7.3% year-to-date return despite macro uncertainty.
- Long-term portfolios with defensive allocations historically experience lower drawdowns during crises.
Howard Marks, co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, has reiterated his longstanding philosophy: market turbulence stemming from geopolitical conflict should not dictate investment decisions. Speaking in a recent commentary, Marks cautioned against allowing war-related headlines to sway portfolio behavior, urging investors to focus on fundamentals rather than fear-driven reactions. The current environment, marked by heightened global instability, has seen energy and defense-related assets demonstrate resilience. For instance, crude oil futures (CL=F) have traded within a narrow band of $78 to $83 per barrel over the past 30 days, reflecting supply constraints and strategic stockpiling. Meanwhile, defense sector exposure through major equities such as Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Northrop Grumman (NOC) has seen sustained institutional buying, with average daily trading volume rising 18% since the start of 2026. Market volatility indicators support Marks’ stance. The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) has averaged 19.4 over the last 60 days—above its long-term mean of 16.5—yet equity indices like the S&P 500 (SPX) have shown minimal deviation from their 2026 trendline. In contrast, technology stocks such as Apple (AAPL) have maintained a 7.3% year-to-date gain, underscoring that broader market performance remains anchored in earnings and innovation, not headlines. Investors are advised to review asset allocation regularly but avoid impulsive rebalancing. Long-term portfolios that include defensive sectors and diversified holdings have historically weathered geopolitical shocks with less drawdown compared to reactive strategies. Marks’ message is clear: emotional detachment is not passive—it’s a disciplined response to volatility.