RBC Capital Lowers Price Target on Autodesk (ADSK) to $420 Amid Mixed Growth Outlook

RBC Capital Markets has adjusted its price target for Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) to $420, down from a previous $480, citing cautious near-term visibility in the company’s subscription-based growth model. The firm maintains a 'Sector Perform' rating, suggesting modest outperformance relative to the broader software sector but not significant upside. The revision reflects updated projections for Autodesk’s fiscal 2026 revenue, now estimated at $2.8 billion, down from earlier forecasts of $2.9 billion, driven by slower-than-expected uptake in its AEC (Architecture, Engineering, and Construction) cloud offerings. Additionally, RBC notes elevated competition from firms like Trimble Inc. and Bentley Systems in key verticals, pressuring pricing power and renewal rates. ADSK’s adjusted earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2026 has been trimmed to $5.80 from $6.10, reflecting higher-than-anticipated operating expenses tied to AI-enhanced product development and infrastructure scaling. Despite this, the company continues to report strong cash flow generation, with operating cash flow of $1.1 billion in the last fiscal year, up 9% year-over-year. The price target adjustment has prompted limited trading activity in ADSK shares, with a 0.7% decline in after-hours trading. Institutional investors are closely monitoring the company’s ability to maintain cloud subscription growth, particularly in emerging markets such as Southeast Asia and India, where adoption of digital design tools remains uneven.