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Economic Score 65 Bullish

Mortgage Rates Drop Below 6% Amid Market Shifts on March 11, 2026

Mar 11, 2026 10:00 UTC
MORT, SPY, ^VIX
Short term

U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rates fell to 5.92% on March 11, 2026, marking the first time they’ve dipped below 6% since late 2024. The decline follows weaker-than-expected inflation data and reduced Fed rate hike expectations, boosting housing affordability.

  • 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped to 5.92% on March 11, 2026
  • Core PCE inflation slowed to 0.3% month-over-month in February
  • SPY gained 1.2% on the day, with real estate stocks outperforming
  • ^VIX declined 12% to 14.8, reflecting lower market volatility
  • Refinance volume projected to rise 15% in April
  • Housing affordability index shows signs of recovery

Mortgage interest rates declined sharply on March 11, 2026, with the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage settling at 5.92%, the first reading below 6% since Q4 2024. This reversal comes after rates had hovered near 6.2% in February, reflecting a shift in market sentiment driven by revised economic data. The drop is attributed to a 0.3% decline in the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index for February, which cooled inflation expectations and prompted a reassessment of Federal Reserve policy. As a result, implied Fed funds rates for 2026 shifted lower, reducing the discount rate for long-term fixed-income instruments like mortgages. Financial markets responded promptly: the S&P 500 (SPY) rose 1.2% on the day, with real estate and homebuilder stocks leading gains. The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) fell 12% to 14.8, signaling reduced risk aversion. The move also lifted the housing affordability index, which had been declining since mid-2025. The decline is expected to stimulate refinance activity and support home purchase demand, particularly in mid-tier markets. Mortgage originations are projected to increase by 15% month-over-month, with refinancing volume forecasted to return to 2023 levels in April.

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