Fertilizer Tankers Continue Loading in Middle East Amid Strait of Hormuz Disruption

Fertilizer shipments from key Middle Eastern producers remain underway despite a sharp decline in outbound tanker movements since the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Only one vessel has departed the region since the conflict escalated, yet multiple tankers are still being loaded at terminals in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE. This divergence between loading and departure rates indicates either deferred exports or strategic stockpiling in anticipation of further constraints. The activity underscores the region's critical role in global nitrogen fertilizer supply. Ammonia and urea production, which rely heavily on natural gas feedstocks, remain operational, with output levels at 92% of capacity across major facilities in the Gulf. This sustained production is supported by stable domestic energy inputs, though logistical bottlenecks persist. The continued loading suggests market participants are either hedging against supply volatility or preparing for a potential surge in demand ahead of the Northern Hemisphere’s planting season. Data from shipping trackers show that 14 fertilizer tankers are currently in various stages of loading at Gulf terminals, representing a 31% increase from the same period last year. Key commodities affected include urea and ammonia, with futures contracts for GA=F up 8.4% month-over-month and CL=F (WTI crude) rising 5.2% amid elevated risk premiums. ZC=F (corn) has also seen a 3.7% uptick, reflecting concerns over potential feedstock shortages that could ripple through agricultural markets. The resilience in loading operations could delay the full market impact of the Hormuz disruption, but if shipping remains blocked, a sudden surge in supply tightness is possible. Market participants are monitoring vessel movements closely, particularly at key chokepoints near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, where delays could further disrupt global trade routes.