Manulife’s Thooft Cites U.S. Dollar as Top Haven Amid Volatile 'Pogo Stick' Markets

Manulife’s Thooft has declared the U.S. dollar the most compelling investment choice amid persistently turbulent market dynamics, describing recent price action as 'pogo stick' behavior—marked by abrupt swings up and down with little stability. This volatility has intensified across major asset classes, particularly in commodities and equities, as uncertainty around inflation, central bank policy, and geopolitical tensions mounts. The benchmark VIX index, a key measure of market fear, climbed to 28.4 by mid-March 2026, up from 19.2 in early February, signaling heightened investor anxiety. Concurrently, crude oil futures (CL=F) experienced a 12% intra-month swing, with prices fluctuating between $78 and $88 per barrel. These sharp moves underscore the instability in both commodity and equity markets, reinforcing the preference for safe-haven assets. Thooft emphasized that the U.S. dollar’s strength is not only a result of relative monetary stability but also its role as a global reserve currency during periods of stress. As risk-off sentiment grows, demand for dollar-denominated instruments—including Treasuries and dollar-indexed derivatives—has increased, supporting a 4.3% year-to-date rise in the ICE U.S. Dollar Index. This trend is pressuring emerging market currencies and commodities priced in dollars. Financial institutions and institutional investors are adjusting portfolios to reflect this shift, increasing allocations to long U.S. dollar positions while reducing exposure to equities and volatile commodities. The move underscores a broader repositioning in response to unpredictability, where liquidity and stability are prioritized over growth potential.