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EPM

BEARISH
$4.75 Live
Evolution Petroleum Corporation · AMEX
Target $5.06 (+6.6%)
$3.19 52W Range $5.7
Overview AI Snowflake Price Valuation Profitability Growth Health Statements Peers Insiders SEC Filings

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Apr 27, 2026
Market cap
$166.27M
P/E
59.38
ROE
4.3%
Profit margin
3.6%
Debt/Equity
0.81
Dividend yield
10.11%

AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence
85%
EPM presents as a classic yield trap, characterized by a stable Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 but severe valuation disconnects. The stock trades at $4.75, significantly exceeding its Graham Number ($1.89) and Intrinsic Value ($0.56). Most alarming is the 600% dividend payout ratio, which renders the 10.11% yield unsustainable. Combined with a current ratio below 1.0, the company faces significant liquidity and solvency risks despite bullish analyst sentiment.

Key Strengths

High current dividend yield of 10.11%
Stable Piotroski F-Score (5/9) indicating moderate financial health
Strong 1-year price appreciation (+24.1%)
Low PEG ratio (0.69) suggesting potential growth relative to current price
Strong Buy consensus from covering analysts

Key Risks

Unsustainable dividend payout ratio of 600%
Severe overvaluation relative to Graham and Intrinsic value models
Liquidity risk with a Current Ratio of 0.90 and Quick Ratio of 0.69
Stagnant revenue growth (2.00% YoY)
Extreme Forward P/E (593.75) indicating a projected collapse in earnings
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$1.89
-60.2% below current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
33
Weak
Value
15
Future
30
Past
65
Health
45
Dividend
10
AI Verdict
Overvalued Yield Trap
Key drivers: Unsustainable payout ratio, Liquidity deficit, Price-to-Intrinsic gap
Confidence
90%
Value
15/100

Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number

Positives
  • Low PEG ratio
Watchpoints
  • P/E of 59.38 is high for Energy sector
  • Price is 2.5x the Graham Number
  • Intrinsic value is only $0.56
Future
30/100

Ref Growth rates

Positives
  • Positive analyst target price ($5.06)
Watchpoints
  • Revenue growth is nearly flat at 2%
  • Forward P/E suggests massive earnings decline
Past
65/100

Ref Historical trends

Positives
  • Strong 5-year return (+116.5%)
  • Recent 1-week momentum (+15%)
Watchpoints
  • Inconsistent quarterly earnings beats
Health
45/100

Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score

Positives
  • Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 is stable
Watchpoints
  • Current Ratio < 1.0 indicates inability to cover short-term liabilities
  • Quick Ratio of 0.69 is critically low
Dividend
10/100

Ref Yield, Payout

Positives
  • Double-digit yield (10.11%)
Watchpoints
  • Payout ratio of 600% is fundamentally broken

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$4.75
Analyst Target
$5.06
Upside/Downside
+6.6%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for EPM and closest competitors.

Updated 2026-04-24
EPM
Evolution Petroleum Corporation
Primary
5Y
+116.5%
3Y
-4.1%
1Y
+24.1%
6M
+10.4%
1M
+6.3%
1W
+15.0%
NFE
New Fortress Energy Inc.
Peer
5Y
-98.4%
3Y
-97.9%
1Y
-89.1%
6M
-69.2%
1M
-43.3%
1W
+4.6%
IMP
Imperial Petroleum Inc.
Peer
5Y
-96.2%
3Y
+31.2%
1Y
+80.1%
6M
-2.8%
1M
-11.5%
1W
-5.8%
KGE
Kolibri Global Energy Inc.
Peer
5Y
+620.0%
3Y
+30.6%
1Y
-26.6%
6M
-2.7%
1M
+1.6%
1W
-4.7%
NCS
NCS Multistage Holdings, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+174.8%
3Y
+202.1%
1Y
+162.7%
6M
+73.7%
1M
+10.3%
1W
+8.7%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
59.38
Forward P/E
593.75
PEG Ratio
0.69
P/B Ratio
2.4
P/S Ratio
N/A
EV/Revenue
2.49
EV/EBITDA
6.99
Market Cap
$166.27M

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 3.65%
Operating Margin 13.99%
Gross Margin 42.37%
ROE 4.34%
ROA 2.96%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth +2.0%
Earnings Growth N/A
Q/Q Revenue Growth +1.99%
Q/Q Earnings Growth N/A

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
0.81
Moderate
Current Ratio
0.9
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.69
Poor
Cash/Share
$0.11

Financial Statement Flow

Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025

Revenue
$0.0B
Gross Margin
15.7%
Op. Margin
3.2%
Net Margin
5.2%
Total Assets
$0.2B
Liabilities
$0.1B
Equity
$0.1B
Debt/Equity
1.51x
Operating CF
$0.0B
CapEx
$-0.0B
Free Cash Flow
$0.0B
FCF Yield
89%

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-05-15
$N/A
2026-02-10
$0.03
+800.9% surprise
2025-11-11
$N/A
-100.0% surprise
2025-09-16
$0.03
+125.1% surprise

Energy Sector Comparison

Comparing EPM against 100 companies in the Energy sector (8 bullish, 35 neutral, 57 bearish)
P/E Ratio
59.38
This Stock
vs
31.25
Sector Avg
+90.0% (Expensive)
Return on Equity (ROE)
4.34%
This Stock
vs
3.46%
Sector Avg
+25.6% (Excellent)
Profit Margin
3.65%
This Stock
vs
5.54%
Sector Avg
-34.1% (Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.81
This Stock
vs
1.37
Sector Avg
-40.8% (Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
2.0%
This Stock
vs
21.95%
Sector Avg
-90.9% (Slower)
Current Ratio
0.9
This Stock
vs
2.13
Sector Avg
-57.8% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

EPM Evolution...
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$166M
P/E
59.4
ROE
4.3%
Price
$4.75
NFE New Fortress...
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$177M
P/E
-
ROE
-152.7%
Price
$0.62
 Compare with EPM
IMPP Imperial Petroleum Inc.
BULLISH
Mkt Cap
$154M
P/E
3.3
ROE
10.5%
Price
$4.25
 Compare with EPM
KGEI Kolibri Global...
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$179M
P/E
11.7
ROE
7.9%
Price
$5.04
 Compare with EPM
NCSM NCS Multistage...
NEUTRAL
Mkt Cap
$182M
P/E
8.0
ROE
20.1%
Price
$69.48
 Compare with EPM

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

DOZIER WILLIAM E
Director
Stock Award
2025-12-04
24,214 shares
HERLIN ROBERT STEVENS
Director
Stock Award
2025-12-04
24,214 shares
DIPAOLO EDWARD JOHN JED
Director
Stock Award
2025-12-04
24,214 shares
HARGRAVE MARJORIE ANNE
Director
Stock Award
2025-12-04
24,214 shares
BIERRIA MYRA COLEMAN
Director
Stock Award
2025-12-04
24,214 shares
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

SEC Filings

Recent regulatory filings from the SEC EDGAR database

10-Q
10-Q
2026-02-11

EPM filed its 10-Q on February 11, 2026, which includes a section dedicated to risk factors under Item 1A. Due to the limited information provided, specific financial highlights and detailed risk assessments are unavailable.

8-K
FORM 8-K
2026-02-11

EPM filed an 8-K on February 11, 2026, likely to announce its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results.

8-K
8-K
2026-02-10

EPM filed an 8-K on February 10, 2026, likely to announce its annual financial results for the preceding fiscal year.

8-K
8-K
2025-12-09
10-Q
10-Q
2025-11-12

EPM filed its 10-Q on November 12, 2025. While specific financial highlights were not provided in the excerpt, the filing includes a dedicated section for Risk Factors under Item 1A.

8-K
8-K
2025-11-12

EPM filed an 8-K on November 12, 2025, likely to announce its third-quarter financial results.

DEF 14A
DEF 14A
2025-10-23

EPM filed a Definitive Proxy Statement on October 23, 2025, providing shareholders with necessary information to vote on corporate matters at the upcoming annual meeting.

10-K
10-K
2025-09-17

EPM filed its annual 10-K on September 17, 2025, which includes comprehensive disclosures on its business operations and financial condition. The filing contains dedicated sections for risk factors and management's discussion and analysis, although specific financial metrics and risk details were not provided in the available excerpts.

8-K
8-K
2025-09-16
8-K
8-K
2025-08-06

EPM filed an 8-K on August 6, 2025, likely to announce its second-quarter financial results.

8-K
8-K
2025-07-02
8-K
8-K
2025-06-05
10-Q
10-Q
2025-05-14
8-K
8-K
2025-05-13
10-Q
10-Q
2025-02-12
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR. AI summaries generated automatically.

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
STRONG_BUY
4 analysts
Freedom Broker
2026-02-24
Maintains
Buy Buy
Freedom Broker
2025-12-23
init
Buy

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning EPM from our newsroom.

Newest → oldest
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