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AGNCN AGNC Investment Corp. - Fundamental Analysis

BEARISH
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AGNCN Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NASDAQ Real Estate REIT - Mortgage
Current Price Live
$25.63
52W High
$26.59
52W Low
$23.63

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Feb 07, 2026
Market cap
$8.8B
P/E
N/A
ROE
15.1%
Profit margin
92.9%
Debt/Equity
6.89
Dividend yield
9.46%

AI Analysis

Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms

Confidence Score
85%
Analysis Accuracy
AGNCN exhibits severe financial health concerns, as evidenced by a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 (indicating weak operational and financial stability) and a missing Altman Z-Score, which raises red flags for potential distress risk. Despite impressive revenue and earnings growth (546% and 776% YoY), these gains are likely driven by non-recurring or accounting anomalies given near-100% gross margins and a 6.89 debt-to-equity ratio. The stock trades at a premium valuation (Price/Book: 2.72) with no intrinsic value or Graham Number available, suggesting overvaluation relative to traditional metrics. The 9.46% dividend yield appears unsustainable given the company's weak profitability (ROE: 15.08%) and extreme leverage, making the dividend a significant risk.

Key Strengths

Exceptional year-over-year revenue and earnings growth (546% and 776%)
High dividend yield of 9.46% attractive to income investors
Strong price performance over 5-year (59.8%) and 3-year (38.1%) horizons
Significant market cap ($8.8B) provides liquidity and visibility
Consistent 1-year returns above 9% indicate market resilience

Key Risks

Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 indicates severe financial distress and operational weakness
Debt/Equity ratio of 6.89 is extremely high, signaling excessive leverage
Current and quick ratios of 0.18 and 0.17 suggest severe liquidity risk
Missing Altman Z-Score raises unquantified bankruptcy risk
Dividend payout ratio is likely unsustainable given low ROE and high leverage

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
44
Moderate
Value
40
Future
65
Past
70
Health
20
Dividend
25
AI Verdict
High Risk
Key drivers: Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, Extreme leverage (Debt/Equity: 6.89), Liquidity ratios below 0.2, Missing Altman Z-Score, Unsustainable dividend yield
Confidence
85%
Value
40/100

Stock trades at a premium valuation with no fundamental support from traditional metrics; high yield may be a trap.

Positives
  • High dividend yield (9.46%)
  • Strong 5-year price appreciation (+59.8%)
Watchpoints
  • Price/Book of 2.72 is elevated
  • No Graham Number or intrinsic value available
  • No P/E or PEG ratios for valuation context
Future
65/100

Growth rates are extraordinary but likely unsustainable due to underlying financial fragility.

Positives
  • 546% YoY revenue growth
  • 776% YoY earnings growth
  • 682% Q/Q earnings growth
Watchpoints
  • Growth likely non-recurring or accounting-driven
  • Sustainability of growth is questionable given financial health
  • No forward guidance or analyst coverage
Past
70/100

Past performance is strong but may not reflect sustainable business fundamentals.

Positives
  • 5-year price return of +59.8%
  • 3-year return of +38.1%
  • Consistent positive returns over 1-year and 6-month periods
Watchpoints
  • Historical performance may be inflated by temporary factors
  • No long-term earnings consistency to support returns
Health
20/100

Financial health is critically weak; Piotroski score and leverage ratios indicate high risk of failure.

Positives
  • High operating margin (95.88%)
Watchpoints
  • Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 (very weak)
  • Debt/Equity of 6.89 (dangerously high)
  • Current ratio of 0.18 (severe liquidity risk)
  • Missing Altman Z-Score (unquantified distress risk)
Dividend
25/100

Dividend appears high-risk; yield is likely not sustainable given weak profitability and extreme leverage.

Positives
  • High dividend yield of 9.46%
  • Attractive for income-focused investors
Watchpoints
  • Payout ratio likely unsustainable
  • Low ROE (15.08%) undermines ability to fund dividends
  • High leverage increases risk of dividend cuts

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$25.63

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for AGNCN and closest competitors.

Updated 2026-02-06
Company 5Y 3Y 1Y 6M 1M 1W
AGNCN
AGNC Investment Corp.
Primary
+59.8% +38.1% +9.7% +4.2% +1.2% +0.2%
AGNCM
AGNC Investment Corp.
Peer
+50.8% +43.9% +8.8% +4.0% +1.4% +0.1%
AHR
American Healthcare REIT, Inc.
Peer
+278.7% +278.7% +65.4% +25.2% -4.0% -3.7%
ADC
Agree Realty Corporation
Peer
+38.9% +12.4% +5.9% +0.8% +0.6% -0.9%
BRX
Brixmor Property Group Inc.
Peer
+90.8% +33.3% +5.2% +5.4% +1.4% -1.0%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
N/A
Forward P/E
N/A
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
2.72
P/S Ratio
4.9
EV/Revenue
54.8
EV/EBITDA
N/A
Market Cap
$8.8B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 92.93%
Operating Margin 95.88%
Gross Margin 100.0%
ROE 15.08%
ROA 1.65%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth +546.1%
Earnings Growth +775.9%
Q/Q Revenue Growth N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth +682.0%

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
6.89
High debt
Current Ratio
0.18
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.17
Poor
Cash/Share
$15.56

Real Estate Sector Comparison

Comparing AGNCN against 56 companies in the Real Estate sector (1 bullish, 9 neutral, 46 bearish)
Return on Equity (ROE)
15.08%
This Stock
vs
-75.75%
Sector Avg
-119.9% (Below Avg)
Profit Margin
92.93%
This Stock
vs
24.96%
Sector Avg
+272.4% (Superior)
Debt to Equity
6.89
This Stock
vs
3.28
Sector Avg
+110.2% (Higher)
Revenue Growth
546.1%
This Stock
vs
108.53%
Sector Avg
+403.2% (Fast Growth)
Current Ratio
0.18
This Stock
vs
8.3
Sector Avg
-97.8% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Company AI Rating Market Cap P/E ROE Profit Margin Price
AGNCN
AGNC Investment Corp.
BEARISH $8.8B - 15.1% 92.9% $25.63
AGNCM
AGNC Investment Corp.
BEARISH $8.88B - 15.1% 92.9% $24.99
AHR
American Healthcare REIT, Inc.
BEARISH $8.61B 385.33 1.1% 1.2% $46.24
ADC
Agree Realty Corporation
NEUTRAL $8.36B 42.18 3.5% 28.1% $72.55
BRX
Brixmor Property Group Inc.
BEARISH $8.08B 24.23 11.4% 24.7% $26.41

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning AGNCN from our newsroom.

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