APEI American Public Education, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
BEARISH
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APEI Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NASDAQ
Consumer Defensive
Education & Training Services
Current Price
Live
$57.66
Analyst Target
$48.0
-16.8%
Downside
52W High
$58.69
52W Low
$20.75
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Mar 14, 2026
Market cap
$1.04B
P/E
44.02
ROE
10.5%
Profit margin
4.9%
Debt/Equity
0.55
Dividend yield
N/A
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
85%
Analysis Accuracy
APEI's deterministic health scores signal significant concerns: a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 indicates weak financial health, while the absence of an Altman Z-Score raises red flags for potential distress risk. Despite strong earnings surprises and robust historical EPS growth, the stock trades at a rich forward P/E of 15.44 and a current P/E of 44.02, well above sector averages and its intrinsic value of $24.30. The company shows deteriorating revenue growth (-3.5% YoY) and negative insider sentiment with two recent sell transactions. Although profitability metrics remain positive, the combination of weak financial strength, overvaluation, and declining top-line performance suggests a high-risk profile.
Key Strengths
Strong historical earnings surprise performance (average +270% over last 4 quarters)
High gross margin of 54.22% indicates pricing power and operational efficiency
Solid operating margin of 12.03% and ROE of 10.54% reflect effective capital utilization
Low debt/equity ratio of 0.55 and strong liquidity (current ratio 3.46) suggest manageable leverage
Significant past price appreciation (1Y return +173.3%, 3Y +522.7%) indicates strong investor momentum
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 indicates severe financial distress risk and weak operational health
Negative revenue growth (-3.5% YoY) and Q/Q earnings decline (-2.7%) signal top-line contraction
Stock trades at a premium to intrinsic value ($57.66 vs $24.30) and Graham Number ($21.89)
Insider selling activity (2 transactions, $0.55M) with no buys suggests internal skepticism
Forward P/E of 15.44 is misleadingly low due to one-time earnings spikes; underlying growth is not sustainable
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$24.3
-57.9% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
38
Weak
35
50
78
25
0
AI Verdict
cautious
Key drivers: High earnings surprise history and strong margins, Weak Piotroski F-Score and declining revenue, Overvaluation relative to intrinsic value, Negative insider sentiment, Lack of Altman Z-Score raises distress risk
Confidence
88%
Value
35/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Graham Number of $21.89 provides a defensive floor
- Intrinsic value estimate of $24.30 based on growth assumptions
Watchpoints
- Current price of $57.66 is 137% above Graham Number
- Forward P/E of 15.44 is inflated by one-time earnings spikes
- Price/Book of 3.55 indicates premium valuation
Future
50/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Recent Q/Q EPS growth of +193.3% and YoY EPS growth of +39.7%
- Strong earnings surprise history suggests potential for continued beat momentum
Watchpoints
- Revenue growth is negative (-3.5% YoY)
- Q/Q earnings growth is declining (-2.7%)
- No clear path to sustained top-line expansion
Past
78/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Consistent earnings beat rate (3/4 in last 4 quarters)
- Average earnings surprise of +270.07% over last 4 quarters
- Historical EPS growth of +39.7% YoY
Watchpoints
- Significant earnings misses in prior quarters (e.g., -261.7% surprise in 2023-11)
- High volatility in earnings performance
Health
25/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Low debt/equity (0.55) and strong liquidity (current ratio 3.46)
- Positive ROE (10.54%) and ROA (6.16%)
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 indicates severe financial weakness
- No Altman Z-Score available, raising bankruptcy risk concerns
- Declining revenue and earnings momentum
Dividend
0/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
- No dividend paid (dividend yield and payout ratio both 0)
- Dividend strength score of 0/100
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$57.66
Analyst Target
$48.0
Upside/Downside
-16.8%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for APEI and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-03-13
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
APEI
American Public Education, Inc.
Primary
|
+68.2% | +522.7% | +173.3% | +61.5% | +33.4% | +28.1% |
|
AVO
Mission Produce, Inc.
Peer
|
-17.1% | +10.2% | +11.6% | +11.7% | +14.5% | +8.2% |
|
AFYA
Afya Limited
Peer
|
-35.4% | +25.8% | -14.1% | -11.8% | -11.3% | -0.7% |
|
AGRO
Adecoagro S.A.
Peer
|
+28.7% | +16.0% | -4.0% | -5.6% | +12.5% | +9.2% |
|
BGS
B&G Foods, Inc.
Peer
|
-79.7% | -56.7% | -21.4% | +6.6% | +1.4% | +0.5% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
44.02
Forward P/E
15.44
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
3.55
P/S Ratio
1.61
EV/Revenue
1.59
EV/EBITDA
14.78
Market Cap
$1.04B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
4.86%
Operating Margin
12.03%
Gross Margin
54.22%
ROE
10.54%
ROA
6.16%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
-3.5%
Earnings Growth
+7.7%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-2.7%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.55
Moderate
Current Ratio
3.46
Strong
Quick Ratio
3.27
Excellent
Cash/Share
$9.74
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-05-11
$N/A
2026-03-12
$0.88
+63.3% surprise
2025-11-10
$0.3
+452.9% surprise
2025-08-06
$0.2
+294.0% surprise
Consumer Defensive Sector Comparison
Comparing APEI against 48 companies in the Consumer Defensive sector
(2 bullish, 27 neutral, 19 bearish)
P/E Ratio
44.02
This Stock
vs
33.4
Sector Avg
+31.8%
(Expensive)
Return on Equity (ROE)
10.54%
This Stock
vs
4.7%
Sector Avg
+124.2%
(Excellent)
Profit Margin
4.86%
This Stock
vs
-1.11%
Sector Avg
-538.2%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.55
This Stock
vs
1.71
Sector Avg
-67.7%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
-3.5%
This Stock
vs
8.8%
Sector Avg
-139.8%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
3.46
This Stock
vs
1.98
Sector Avg
+74.5%
(Stronger)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
APEI
American Public Education, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $1.04B | 44.02 | 10.5% | 4.9% | $57.66 | |
|
AVO
Mission Produce, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $953.5M | 25.4 | 6.8% | 2.7% | $13.46 | |
|
AFYA
Afya Limited
|
NEUTRAL | $1.25B | 8.94 | 16.7% | 20.1% | $13.76 | |
|
AGRO
Adecoagro S.A.
|
BEARISH | $1.26B | 38.83 | 1.7% | 1.7% | $8.93 | |
|
BGS
B&G Foods, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $352.82M | - | -40.9% | -13.6% | $4.41 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-02 | AXENSON TANYA JOY | Officer | Stock Award | 4,617 | - |
| 2026-02-02 | FERNANDES NUNO S | Officer | Stock Award | 7,256 | - |
| 2026-02-02 | GAFFNEY KARMELA | Officer | Stock Award | 5,277 | - |
| 2026-02-02 | ARNOLD MARK L | Officer | Stock Award | 4,617 | - |
| 2026-02-02 | BECKETT THOMAS A | General Counsel | Stock Award | 5,277 | - |
| 2026-02-02 | SELDEN ANGELA K. | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 44,855 | - |
| 2026-01-02 | PIANKO DANIEL S | Director | Stock Award | 1,556 | $56,249 |
| 2025-11-12 | AXENSON TANYA JOY | Officer | Sale | 10,363 | $360,305 |
| 2025-11-12 | FERNANDES NUNO S | Officer | Sale | 5,500 | $190,740 |
| 2025-11-12 | AXENSON TANYA JOY | Officer | Option Exercise | 10,363 | $163,114 |
| 2025-11-12 | FERNANDES NUNO S | Officer | Option Exercise | 5,500 | $58,630 |
| 2025-10-20 | CODISPOTI EDWARD H | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 8,477 | - |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
STRONG_BUY
6 analysts
Barrington Research
2026-03-13
Outperform
Outperform
Lake Street
2026-03-13
Buy
Buy
B. Riley Securities
2026-03-13
Buy
Buy
Barrington Research
2026-03-04
Outperform
Outperform
DA Davidson
2026-02-04
Buy
Buy
B. Riley Securities
2026-01-27
Buy
Buy
DA Davidson
2025-11-24
Buy
Buy
Lake Street
2025-11-21
Buy
Buy
Truist Securities
2025-11-21
Hold
Hold
Truist Securities
2025-11-12
Hold
Hold
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning APEI from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.