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SMPL

BEARISH
$11.89 Live
The Simply Good Foods Company · NASDAQ
Target $19.2 (+61.5%)
$10.21 52W Range $37.2

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Apr 20, 2026
Market cap
$1.1B
P/E
N/A
ROE
-6.4%
Profit margin
-7.5%
Debt/Equity
0.3
Dividend yield
N/A

AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence
85%
Despite a strong Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicating a healthy balance sheet, SMPL is experiencing a severe operational collapse. The company is facing catastrophic earnings declines (YoY EPS growth of -476.1%) and negative revenue growth, coupled with a 68% price drop over the last year. While the valuation metrics (P/B 0.72, Forward P/E 6.53) suggest deep value, the consistent failure to meet earnings estimates (0/4 beats) and bearish technical trend indicate a 'falling knife' scenario.

Key Strengths

Strong Piotroski F-Score (7/9) indicating fundamental financial health
Very low Debt/Equity ratio (0.30) suggesting minimal insolvency risk
Exceptional liquidity with a Current Ratio of 5.06
Deep value valuation with Price/Book at 0.72 and Price/Sales at 0.78
Significant upside to analyst target price of $19.20

Key Risks

Catastrophic earnings deterioration with most recent Q/Q EPS growth at -765.4%
Negative revenue growth (-9.40% YoY) indicating loss of market share or demand
Severe earnings miss streak (0/4 beats in the last 4 quarters)
Strongly bearish technical trend (0/100) and massive 1-year price decline
Negative profit margins (-7.46%) impacting bottom-line sustainability
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$15.5
+30.4% above current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
41
Moderate
Value
85
Future
10
Past
20
Health
90
Dividend
0
AI Verdict
High-risk deep value play with failing operations
Key drivers: Balance sheet strength vs. Operational failure, Extreme valuation discount, Negative growth trajectory
Confidence
90%
Value
85/100

Forward P/E of 6.53 and P/B of 0.72 suggest the stock is significantly undervalued relative to assets.

Positives
  • P/B < 1.0
  • P/S < 1.0
  • Very low Forward P/E
Watchpoints
  • Value trap risk due to declining fundamentals
Future
10/100

Revenue growth of -9.40% and EPS growth of -476.1% create a very bleak short-term outlook.

Positives
  • Analyst target price suggests recovery potential
Watchpoints
  • Negative YoY and Q/Q revenue growth
  • Plummeting EPS
Past
20/100

The company has transitioned from a consistent beat-performer to a consistent miss-performer.

Positives
  • Historical track record of beats prior to 2025
Watchpoints
  • 68% 1-year price decline
  • Recent streak of massive earnings misses
Health
90/100

The balance sheet is the only strong pillar, providing a safety buffer against bankruptcy.

Positives
  • Piotroski F-Score 7/9
  • Low Debt/Equity
  • High Current Ratio
Watchpoints
  • Negative ROE
Dividend
0/100

Non-dividend paying stock.

Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
  • No dividend paid
  • 0/100 dividend strength

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$11.89
Analyst Target
$19.2
Upside/Downside
+61.5%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for SMPL and closest competitors.

Updated 2026-04-17
SMP
The Simply Good Foods Company
Primary
5Y
-64.2%
3Y
-66.5%
1Y
-68.1%
6M
-51.6%
1M
-17.1%
1W
+13.9%
SEN
Seneca Foods Corporation
Peer
5Y
+216.8%
3Y
+219.7%
1Y
+83.9%
6M
+36.6%
1M
+16.2%
1W
-3.1%
APE
American Public Education, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+68.2%
3Y
+522.7%
1Y
+173.3%
6M
+61.5%
1M
+33.4%
1W
+28.1%
SEN
Seneca Foods Corporation
Peer
5Y
+185.3%
3Y
+183.8%
1Y
+69.9%
6M
+14.9%
1M
-2.6%
1W
-16.2%
JBS
John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+8.7%
3Y
-6.4%
1Y
+29.0%
6M
+35.0%
1M
+8.4%
1W
+0.3%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
N/A
Forward P/E
6.53
PEG Ratio
1.64
P/B Ratio
0.72
P/S Ratio
0.78
EV/Revenue
1.0
EV/EBITDA
6.02
Market Cap
$1.1B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin -7.46%
Operating Margin 13.78%
Gross Margin 33.86%
ROE -6.39%
ROA 5.83%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth -9.4%
Earnings Growth N/A
Q/Q Revenue Growth -9.35%
Q/Q Earnings Growth N/A

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
0.3
Low debt
Current Ratio
5.06
Strong
Quick Ratio
2.66
Excellent
Cash/Share
$1.19

Financial Statement Flow

Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q1 2026

Revenue
$0.3B
Gross Margin
31.6%
Op. Margin
10.9%
Net Margin
-49.0%
Total Assets
$2.1B
Liabilities
$0.6B
Equity
$1.5B
Debt/Equity
0.43x
Operating CF
$0.0B
CapEx
$-0.0B
Free Cash Flow
$0.0B
FCF Yield
32%

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-06-25
$N/A
2026-04-09
$-1.73
-623.1% surprise
2026-01-08
$0.26
-13.2% surprise
2025-10-23
$0.46
-2.9% surprise

Consumer Defensive Sector Comparison

Comparing SMPL against 124 companies in the Consumer Defensive sector (9 bullish, 47 neutral, 68 bearish)
Return on Equity (ROE)
-6.39%
This Stock
vs
-22.53%
Sector Avg
-71.6% (Below Avg)
Profit Margin
-7.46%
This Stock
vs
-8.63%
Sector Avg
-13.6% (Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.3
This Stock
vs
1.52
Sector Avg
-80.2% (Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
-9.4%
This Stock
vs
152.54%
Sector Avg
-106.2% (Slower)
Current Ratio
5.06
This Stock
vs
2.32
Sector Avg
+118.0% (Stronger)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

KILTS JAMES M
Director
Stock Award
2026-01-28
6,500 shares
WEST DAVID JOHN
Director
Stock Award
2026-01-28
6,500 shares
GOOLSBY MICHELLE P
Director
Stock Award
2026-01-28
6,500 shares
DALEY CLAYTON C JR.
Director
Stock Award
2026-01-28
6,500 shares
WHITE JAMES D
Director
Stock Award
2026-01-28
6,500 shares
SCHENA JOSEPH J.
Director
Stock Award
2026-01-28
6,500 shares
RATZAN BRIAN K.
Director
Stock Award
2026-01-28
6,500 shares
MONTGOMERY ROBERT G
Director
Stock Award
2026-01-28
6,500 shares
RITTERBUSH DAVID W
Director
Stock Award
2026-01-28
6,500 shares
MALLY ROMITHA
Director
Stock Award
2026-01-28
6,500 shares
CLAWSON MICHAEL L
Officer
Buy
2025-11-17
5,000 shares · $100,000
MATTHEWS TIMOTHY ALLEN
Officer
Sell
2025-11-11
5,859 shares · $114,053
KRAFT TIMOTHY RICHARD
Officer
Stock Award
2025-11-07
23,424 shares
MATTHEWS TIMOTHY ALLEN
Officer
Stock Award
2025-11-07
4,681 shares
HELD AMY C
Officer
Stock Award
2025-11-07
14,277 shares
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

SEC Filings

Recent regulatory filings from the SEC EDGAR database

8-K
8-K
2026-04-09

SMPL filed an 8-K on April 9, 2026, likely to announce its first-quarter financial results.

10-Q
10-Q
2026-04-09

SMPL's 10-Q filing dated April 9, 2026, indicates significant financial risk, specifically noting defaults upon senior securities. The report also details unregistered sales of equity securities, suggesting a reliance on equity financing to address liquidity or capital needs.

8-K
FORM 8-K
2026-02-02

SMPL filed an 8-K on February 2, 2026, likely to announce its quarterly or annual financial results.

8-K
FORM 8-K
2026-01-21

SMPL filed an 8-K on January 21, 2026, likely to report its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results.

10-Q
10-Q
2026-01-08

SMPL's 10-Q filing dated January 8, 2026, includes disclosures regarding unregistered sales of equity securities and potential defaults upon senior securities. These sections indicate a focus on capital raising activities and significant credit-related risk factors. Specific financial metrics were not provided in the available excerpt.

8-K
8-K
2026-01-08
DEF 14A
DEF 14A
2025-12-17

SMPL filed a definitive proxy statement (DEF 14A) on December 17, 2025, providing shareholders with necessary information to vote on corporate matters.

8-K
FORM 8-K
2025-11-20
10-K
10-K
2025-10-28

SMPL filed its 10-K on October 28, 2025, which includes standard disclosures regarding its financial condition, market risks, and operational results. The company cautions investors that forward-looking statements are subject to significant risks and uncertainties that could cause actual financial performance to differ materially from projections.

8-K
8-K
2025-10-23

SMPL filed an 8-K on October 23, 2025, likely to announce its third-quarter financial results.

10-Q
10-Q
2025-07-10
8-K
8-K
2025-07-10
8-K
FORM 8-K
2025-05-28
8-K
8-K
2025-04-09
10-Q
10-Q
2025-04-09
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR. AI summaries generated automatically.

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
BUY
10 analysts
BTIG
2026-04-14
init
Neutral
DA Davidson
2026-04-10
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
UBS
2026-04-10
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
Deutsche Bank
2026-04-10
Maintains
Hold Hold
Morgan Stanley
2026-04-10
Maintains
Equal-Weight Equal-Weight
TD Cowen
2026-04-10
Maintains
Hold Hold
Stifel
2026-04-10
Maintains
Buy Buy
Stephens & Co.
2026-04-10
down
Overweight Equal-Weight
UBS
2026-04-02
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
Jefferies
2026-03-16
up
Hold Buy

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning SMPL from our newsroom.

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