ARKO Arko Corp. - Fundamental Analysis
BEARISH
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ARKO Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NASDAQ
Consumer Cyclical
Specialty Retail
Current Price
Live
$5.26
Analyst Target
$8.5
+61.6%
Upside
52W High
$6.71
52W Low
$3.51
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Mar 14, 2026
Market cap
$586.13M
P/E
35.07
ROE
6.1%
Profit margin
0.3%
Debt/Equity
7.02
Dividend yield
2.29%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
85%
Analysis Accuracy
ARKO's Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health, signaling distress in operational efficiency and capital structure. The absence of an Altman Z-Score raises red flags for potential bankruptcy risk, especially given a dangerously high Debt/Equity ratio of 7.02. While the stock trades below its Graham Number ($2.85) and intrinsic value ($1.05), it is currently priced at $5.26—well above both, suggesting a significant premium driven by speculative growth expectations. Despite strong earnings surprises in recent quarters and a 'strong_buy' analyst consensus, the company exhibits negative revenue growth (-10.7% YoY), deteriorating profitability, and a high payout ratio of 80%, undermining sustainability. The technical trend is bearish (0/100), reinforcing downward momentum.
Key Strengths
Recent earnings have consistently beaten estimates, with an average surprise of 47.96% over the last four quarters
Strong historical EPS growth (15.4% YoY) and Q/Q EPS growth of +50.0% indicate potential turnaround momentum
Trading below the Graham Number ($2.85) suggests potential undervaluation on a defensive basis
Analyst consensus is 'strong_buy' with a target price of $8.50, implying upside potential
Positive insider sentiment (40/100) and neutral activity suggest no immediate insider selling pressure
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health, with multiple red flags in profitability, leverage, and cash flow
Debt/Equity ratio of 7.02 is extremely high, signaling severe financial leverage and distress risk
Negative revenue growth (-10.7% YoY) and declining margins (Profit Margin: 0.35%) reflect deteriorating business fundamentals
P/E ratio of 35.07 is elevated relative to peers and growth prospects, especially with forward P/E at 105.20
Dividend payout ratio of 80% is unsustainable given weak earnings and negative cash flow trends
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$1.05
-80.0% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
46
Moderate
55
60
50
30
35
AI Verdict
Bearish
Key drivers: Weak Piotroski F-Score (4/9), High leverage (Debt/Equity: 7.02), Negative revenue growth, High forward P/E (105.20), Sustainable dividend concerns
Confidence
85%
Value
55/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Current price ($5.26) is above Graham Number ($2.85), suggesting potential undervaluation on defensive basis
- Intrinsic value estimate ($1.05) is significantly below current price, indicating high premium
Watchpoints
- Stock trades at a premium to both Graham Number and intrinsic value
- High P/E (35.07) and forward P/E (105.20) suggest overvaluation relative to earnings
Future
60/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Strong recent earnings surprises (avg +47.96%)
- Positive Q/Q EPS growth (+50.0%) and YoY EPS growth (+15.4%)
- Analyst target price of $8.50 implies strong growth expectations
Watchpoints
- Negative revenue growth (-10.7% YoY) contradicts earnings improvement
- No PEG ratio available, limiting growth-adjusted valuation
Past
50/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Consistent earnings beat rate (3/4 in last 4 quarters)
- Historical EPS growth of +15.4% YoY
Watchpoints
- Significant earnings misses in prior quarters (e.g., -105.1% surprise in 2023-05)
- Inconsistent profitability with negative margins in multiple quarters
Health
30/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Current Ratio (1.66) and Quick Ratio (1.11) indicate short-term liquidity
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health
- No Altman Z-Score available, but Debt/Equity of 7.02 suggests high distress risk
- Negative operating cash flow and missing FCF data
Dividend
35/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Dividend yield of 2.29% is attractive for income investors
- Consistent dividend payments over time
Watchpoints
- Payout ratio of 80% is high and unsustainable with weak earnings
- No evidence of cash flow support for dividend
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$5.26
Analyst Target
$8.5
Upside/Downside
+61.6%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for ARKO and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-03-13
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ARKO
Arko Corp.
Primary
|
-42.3% | -33.9% | +40.7% | +5.8% | -16.1% | -12.5% |
|
AMWD
American Woodmark Corporation
Peer
|
-62.6% | -23.8% | -31.9% | -42.2% | -33.9% | -10.2% |
|
BLMN
Bloomin' Brands, Inc.
Peer
|
-58.5% | -61.9% | -33.9% | -21.6% | +17.9% | +0.5% |
|
BALY
Bally's Corporation
Peer
|
-6.3% | -6.3% | -7.7% | +65.5% | -4.6% | -1.6% |
|
BBW
Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc.
Peer
|
+1447.6% | +196.4% | +52.8% | +24.3% | +6.1% | -10.3% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
35.07
Forward P/E
105.2
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
2.18
P/S Ratio
0.09
EV/Revenue
0.45
EV/EBITDA
12.64
Market Cap
$586.13M
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
0.35%
Operating Margin
1.65%
Gross Margin
18.04%
ROE
6.11%
ROA
1.68%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
-10.7%
Earnings Growth
N/A
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
N/A
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
7.02
High debt
Current Ratio
1.66
Good
Quick Ratio
1.11
Good
Cash/Share
$2.81
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-05-07
$N/A
2026-02-25
$N/A
+100.0% surprise
2025-11-05
$0.15
+36.6% surprise
2025-08-06
$0.1
+7.2% surprise
Consumer Cyclical Sector Comparison
Comparing ARKO against 94 companies in the Consumer Cyclical sector
(5 bullish, 49 neutral, 40 bearish)
P/E Ratio
35.07
This Stock
vs
42.97
Sector Avg
-18.4%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
6.11%
This Stock
vs
6.02%
Sector Avg
+1.5%
(Above Avg)
Profit Margin
0.35%
This Stock
vs
0.78%
Sector Avg
-55.5%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
7.02
This Stock
vs
1.65
Sector Avg
+325.5%
(Higher)
Revenue Growth
-10.7%
This Stock
vs
7.65%
Sector Avg
-239.9%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
1.66
This Stock
vs
1.88
Sector Avg
-11.9%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ARKO
Arko Corp.
|
BEARISH | $586.13M | 35.07 | 6.1% | 0.3% | $5.26 | |
|
AMWD
American Woodmark Corporation
|
BEARISH | $575.5M | 34.05 | 1.9% | 1.2% | $39.5 | |
|
BLMN
Bloomin' Brands, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $657.02M | 20.84 | 12.4% | -1.5% | $7.71 | |
|
BALY
Bally's Corporation
|
BEARISH | $811.18M | - | -115.6% | -17.4% | $16.5 | |
|
BBW
Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $831.54M | 14.7 | 41.2% | 10.9% | $63.35 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-05 | KOTLER ARIE | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 104,124 | - |
| 2026-03-03 | BRICKS MAURY | General Counsel | Stock Award | 23,250 | - |
| 2026-03-03 | NUCHAMOVITZ EYAL | Officer | Stock Award | 23,250 | - |
| 2026-02-27 | KOTLER ARIE | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 69,581 | - |
| 2026-02-27 | BRICKS MAURY | General Counsel | Stock Award | 35,959 | - |
| 2026-02-27 | NUCHAMOVITZ EYAL | Officer | Stock Award | 35,959 | - |
| 2026-02-27 | KOTLER ARIE | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 186,959 | - |
| 2026-02-27 | BRICKS MAURY | General Counsel | Stock Award | 38,462 | - |
| 2026-02-27 | NUCHAMOVITZ EYAL | Officer | Stock Award | 52,448 | - |
| 2025-12-11 | HEYER STEVEN J | Director | Stock Award | 156,133 | - |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning ARKO from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.