ASTH
BEARISH
$20.33
Live
Astrana Health, Inc. · NASDAQ
Target $35.67
(+75.4%)
$18.08
52W Range
$34.8
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Feb 28, 2026
Market cap
$1.02B
P/E
107.0
ROE
1.8%
Profit margin
0.3%
Debt/Equity
1.96
Dividend yield
N/A
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
85%
ASTH's Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicates a stable but not strong financial foundation, with notable weaknesses in profitability and cash flow generation. The absence of an Altman Z-Score raises concern about default risk, particularly given a high debt/equity ratio of 1.96 and negative earnings growth of -97.7% YoY. While the company exhibits explosive revenue growth (99.7% YoY) and strong earnings surprises in recent quarters, these are not sustainable without improving margins and profitability. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 9.64 but a current P/E of 107.00, suggesting a massive valuation disconnect that reflects overpricing relative to current earnings. The Graham Number of $8.19 and intrinsic value of $1.33 imply severe overvaluation, with the current price of $20.33 trading at a significant premium.
Key Strengths
Explosive revenue growth of 99.7% YoY
Strong recent earnings surprise history (average +21.43% over last 4 quarters)
Positive recent quarterly EPS growth (Q/Q +15.5%, YoY +103.0%)
High analyst coverage (9 analysts) with a target price of $35.67
Improving technical trend (1W change +2.4%) and recent price recovery from 52-week low
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicates financial stability but not strength, with red flags in profitability and cash flow
Negative earnings growth of -97.7% YoY despite revenue growth, signaling unsustainable business model
Extremely high current P/E of 107.00 vs. forward P/E of 9.64, indicating overvaluation based on current earnings
Debt/Equity ratio of 1.96 is elevated, especially for a healthcare facility with low ROE (1.83%) and ROA (2.88%)
No Altman Z-Score available, and the lack of financial health metrics raises bankruptcy risk concerns
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$8.19
-59.7% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
39
Weak
30
75
50
40
0
AI Verdict
cautious
Key drivers: High revenue growth and earnings surprises, Overvalued current P/E and low profitability, Weak financial health indicators, Lack of Altman Z-Score and high leverage
Confidence
80%
Value
30/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Forward P/E of 9.64 appears attractive
- Graham Number of $8.19 suggests undervaluation based on conservative metrics
Watchpoints
- Current P/E of 107.00 is extremely high and unsustainable
- Intrinsic value of $1.33 is far below current price
- Stock trades at a premium due to high growth expectations, not fundamentals
Future
75/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- 99.7% YoY revenue growth indicates strong market expansion
- Recent EPS growth (Q/Q +15.5%, YoY +103.0%) shows momentum
- High earnings surprise average (+21.43%) suggests strong execution
Watchpoints
- Negative earnings growth (-97.7% YoY) undermines sustainability
- No PEG ratio available, limiting growth-adjusted valuation analysis
Past
50/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Consistent earnings beat history (3/4 last quarters)
- Multiple quarters with surprise above 20% (+32.5%, +120.1%, +237.1%)
Watchpoints
- Historical earnings volatility with large negative surprises (-236.4%, -19.6%, -32.6%)
- Persistent negative margins (Profit Margin 0.33%, ROE 1.83%)
Health
40/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicates stable financials
- Current and quick ratios above 1.3, suggesting short-term liquidity
Watchpoints
- No Altman Z-Score available, raising default risk concerns
- Debt/Equity of 1.96 is high for a healthcare facility
- Negative earnings and low ROE/ROA suggest poor capital efficiency
Dividend
0/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
- No dividend yield or payout ratio
- Dividend strength of 0/100 indicates no income generation
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$20.33
Analyst Target
$35.67
Upside/Downside
+75.4%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for ASTH and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-02-27
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ASTH
Astrana Health, Inc.
Primary
|
-19.7% | -41.8% | -41.4% | -36.4% | -7.6% | +2.4% |
|
PCRX
Pacira BioSciences, Inc.
Peer
|
-62.4% | -44.9% | -2.5% | +4.8% | +8.8% | +0.2% |
|
PHAT
Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Peer
|
-65.2% | +21.0% | +198.5% | -5.3% | +16.2% | -0.2% |
|
CLOV
Clover Health Investments, Corp.
Peer
|
-78.5% | +126.7% | -40.8% | -29.6% | -5.0% | +8.0% |
|
KMTS
Kestra Medical Technologies, Ltd.
Peer
|
-18.2% | -18.2% | -26.2% | -18.8% | -19.3% | -9.9% |
AST
Astrana Health, Inc.
Primary
5Y
-19.7%
3Y
-41.8%
1Y
-41.4%
6M
-36.4%
1M
-7.6%
1W
+2.4%
PCR
Pacira BioSciences, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-62.4%
3Y
-44.9%
1Y
-2.5%
6M
+4.8%
1M
+8.8%
1W
+0.2%
PHA
Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-65.2%
3Y
+21.0%
1Y
+198.5%
6M
-5.3%
1M
+16.2%
1W
-0.2%
CLO
Clover Health Investments, Corp.
Peer
5Y
-78.5%
3Y
+126.7%
1Y
-40.8%
6M
-29.6%
1M
-5.0%
1W
+8.0%
KMT
Kestra Medical Technologies, Ltd.
Peer
5Y
-18.2%
3Y
-18.2%
1Y
-26.2%
6M
-18.8%
1M
-19.3%
1W
-9.9%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
107.0
Forward P/E
9.64
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
1.29
P/S Ratio
0.35
EV/Revenue
0.49
EV/EBITDA
11.98
Market Cap
$1.02B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
0.33%
Operating Margin
3.09%
Gross Margin
10.25%
ROE
1.83%
ROA
2.88%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+99.7%
Earnings Growth
-97.7%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-97.7%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
1.96
High debt
Current Ratio
1.4
Good
Quick Ratio
1.36
Good
Cash/Share
$9.24
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-03-02
$N/A
2025-11-06
$0.67
+10.7% surprise
2025-08-07
$0.58
+21.1% surprise
2025-05-08
$0.44
+32.5% surprise
Healthcare Sector Comparison
Comparing ASTH against 560 companies in the Healthcare sector
(34 bullish, 167 neutral, 359 bearish)
P/E Ratio
107.0
This Stock
vs
75.44
Sector Avg
+41.8%
(Expensive)
Return on Equity (ROE)
1.83%
This Stock
vs
-88.14%
Sector Avg
-102.1%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
0.33%
This Stock
vs
-16.28%
Sector Avg
-102.0%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
1.96
This Stock
vs
2.66
Sector Avg
-26.4%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
99.7%
This Stock
vs
124.04%
Sector Avg
-19.6%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
1.4
This Stock
vs
4.47
Sector Avg
-68.6%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ASTH
Astrana Health, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $1.02B | 107.0 | 1.8% | 0.3% | $20.33 | |
|
PCRX
Pacira BioSciences, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $1.03B | 149.12 | 1.0% | 1.0% | $23.86 | Compare |
|
PHAT
Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
|
BULLISH | $1.0B | - | -% | -126.3% | $12.61 | Compare |
|
CLOV
Clover Health Investments, Corp.
|
BEARISH | $996.87M | - | -26.3% | -4.4% | $1.9 | Compare |
|
KMTS
Kestra Medical Technologies, Ltd.
|
BEARISH | $1.04B | - | -92.7% | -173.0% | $17.87 | Compare |
ASTH
Astrana Health, Inc.
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$1.0B
P/E
107.0
ROE
1.8%
Price
$20.33
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-02 | SIM BRANDON | Chief Executive Officer | Option Exercise | 21,334 | $495,802 |
| 2026-01-13 | SCHMIDT DAVID | Director | Option Exercise | 20,000 | $115,800 |
| 2025-12-08 | LAM THOMAS S | Director | Option Exercise | 29,502 | $524,546 |
| 2025-11-10 | SIM KENNETH T | Officer and Director | Option Exercise | 29,502 | $524,546 |
| 2025-11-10 | MAZDYASNI MATTHEW | Director | Option Exercise | 20,000 | $364,000 |
| 2025-11-07 | KITAYAMA MITCHELL W | Director | Option Exercise | 12,000 | $218,400 |
| 2025-11-03 | MARSH LINDA | Director | Option Exercise | 20,000 | $364,000 |
| 2025-09-15 | KITAYAMA MITCHELL W | Director | Option Exercise | 8,000 | $145,600 |
| 2025-09-02 | SCHMIDT DAVID | Director | Option Exercise | 20,000 | $364,000 |
SIM BRANDON
Chief Executive Officer
2026-02-02
21,334 shares
·
$495,802
SCHMIDT DAVID
Director
2026-01-13
20,000 shares
·
$115,800
LAM THOMAS S
Director
2025-12-08
29,502 shares
·
$524,546
SIM KENNETH T
Officer and Director
2025-11-10
29,502 shares
·
$524,546
MAZDYASNI MATTHEW
Director
2025-11-10
20,000 shares
·
$364,000
KITAYAMA MITCHELL W
Director
2025-11-07
12,000 shares
·
$218,400
MARSH LINDA
Director
2025-11-03
20,000 shares
·
$364,000
KITAYAMA MITCHELL W
Director
2025-09-15
8,000 shares
·
$145,600
SCHMIDT DAVID
Director
2025-09-02
20,000 shares
·
$364,000
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
NONE
9 analysts
BTIG
2026-02-02
Buy
Buy
Needham
2025-12-12
Buy
Jefferies
2025-11-25
Buy
Buy
Barclays
2025-11-24
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
TD Cowen
2025-11-10
Buy
Buy
BTIG
2025-11-07
Buy
Buy
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning ASTH from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.