ASTH Astrana Health, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
BEARISH
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ASTH Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NASDAQ
Healthcare
Medical Care Facilities
Current Price
Live
$20.33
Analyst Target
$35.67
+75.4%
Upside
52W High
$34.8
52W Low
$18.08
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Feb 28, 2026
Market cap
$1.02B
P/E
107.0
ROE
1.8%
Profit margin
0.3%
Debt/Equity
1.96
Dividend yield
N/A
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
85%
Analysis Accuracy
ASTH's Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicates a stable but not strong financial foundation, with notable weaknesses in profitability and cash flow generation. The absence of an Altman Z-Score raises concern about default risk, particularly given a high debt/equity ratio of 1.96 and negative earnings growth of -97.7% YoY. While the company exhibits explosive revenue growth (99.7% YoY) and strong earnings surprises in recent quarters, these are not sustainable without improving margins and profitability. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 9.64 but a current P/E of 107.00, suggesting a massive valuation disconnect that reflects overpricing relative to current earnings. The Graham Number of $8.19 and intrinsic value of $1.33 imply severe overvaluation, with the current price of $20.33 trading at a significant premium.
Key Strengths
Explosive revenue growth of 99.7% YoY
Strong recent earnings surprise history (average +21.43% over last 4 quarters)
Positive recent quarterly EPS growth (Q/Q +15.5%, YoY +103.0%)
High analyst coverage (9 analysts) with a target price of $35.67
Improving technical trend (1W change +2.4%) and recent price recovery from 52-week low
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicates financial stability but not strength, with red flags in profitability and cash flow
Negative earnings growth of -97.7% YoY despite revenue growth, signaling unsustainable business model
Extremely high current P/E of 107.00 vs. forward P/E of 9.64, indicating overvaluation based on current earnings
Debt/Equity ratio of 1.96 is elevated, especially for a healthcare facility with low ROE (1.83%) and ROA (2.88%)
No Altman Z-Score available, and the lack of financial health metrics raises bankruptcy risk concerns
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$8.19
-59.7% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
39
Weak
30
75
50
40
0
AI Verdict
cautious
Key drivers: High revenue growth and earnings surprises, Overvalued current P/E and low profitability, Weak financial health indicators, Lack of Altman Z-Score and high leverage
Confidence
80%
Value
30/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Forward P/E of 9.64 appears attractive
- Graham Number of $8.19 suggests undervaluation based on conservative metrics
Watchpoints
- Current P/E of 107.00 is extremely high and unsustainable
- Intrinsic value of $1.33 is far below current price
- Stock trades at a premium due to high growth expectations, not fundamentals
Future
75/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- 99.7% YoY revenue growth indicates strong market expansion
- Recent EPS growth (Q/Q +15.5%, YoY +103.0%) shows momentum
- High earnings surprise average (+21.43%) suggests strong execution
Watchpoints
- Negative earnings growth (-97.7% YoY) undermines sustainability
- No PEG ratio available, limiting growth-adjusted valuation analysis
Past
50/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Consistent earnings beat history (3/4 last quarters)
- Multiple quarters with surprise above 20% (+32.5%, +120.1%, +237.1%)
Watchpoints
- Historical earnings volatility with large negative surprises (-236.4%, -19.6%, -32.6%)
- Persistent negative margins (Profit Margin 0.33%, ROE 1.83%)
Health
40/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicates stable financials
- Current and quick ratios above 1.3, suggesting short-term liquidity
Watchpoints
- No Altman Z-Score available, raising default risk concerns
- Debt/Equity of 1.96 is high for a healthcare facility
- Negative earnings and low ROE/ROA suggest poor capital efficiency
Dividend
0/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
- No dividend yield or payout ratio
- Dividend strength of 0/100 indicates no income generation
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$20.33
Analyst Target
$35.67
Upside/Downside
+75.4%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for ASTH and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-02-27
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ASTH
Astrana Health, Inc.
Primary
|
-19.7% | -41.8% | -41.4% | -36.4% | -7.6% | +2.4% |
|
AKTS
Aktis Oncology, Inc.
Peer
|
-15.2% | -15.2% | -15.2% | -15.2% | +5.2% | +1.0% |
|
ABCL
AbCellera Biologics Inc.
Peer
|
-90.7% | -53.9% | +45.4% | -21.9% | +11.5% | +1.2% |
|
ALVO
Alvotech
Peer
|
-69.0% | -74.3% | -69.0% | -56.8% | -28.4% | -13.5% |
|
BFLY
Butterfly Network, Inc.
Peer
|
-76.9% | +59.4% | +8.9% | +128.9% | +14.2% | +8.4% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
107.0
Forward P/E
9.64
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
1.29
P/S Ratio
0.35
EV/Revenue
0.49
EV/EBITDA
11.98
Market Cap
$1.02B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
0.33%
Operating Margin
3.09%
Gross Margin
10.25%
ROE
1.83%
ROA
2.88%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+99.7%
Earnings Growth
-97.7%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-97.7%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
1.96
High debt
Current Ratio
1.4
Good
Quick Ratio
1.36
Good
Cash/Share
$9.24
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-03-02
$N/A
2025-11-06
$0.67
+10.7% surprise
2025-08-07
$0.58
+21.1% surprise
2025-05-08
$0.44
+32.5% surprise
Healthcare Sector Comparison
Comparing ASTH against 147 companies in the Healthcare sector
(10 bullish, 55 neutral, 82 bearish)
P/E Ratio
107.0
This Stock
vs
164.56
Sector Avg
-35.0%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
1.83%
This Stock
vs
-52.77%
Sector Avg
-103.5%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
0.33%
This Stock
vs
-20.78%
Sector Avg
-101.6%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
1.96
This Stock
vs
6.16
Sector Avg
-68.2%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
99.7%
This Stock
vs
137.39%
Sector Avg
-27.4%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
1.4
This Stock
vs
3.36
Sector Avg
-58.2%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ASTH
Astrana Health, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $1.02B | 107.0 | 1.8% | 0.3% | $20.33 | |
|
AKTS
Aktis Oncology, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $1.05B | - | -26.5% | -% | $18.99 | |
|
ABCL
AbCellera Biologics Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $1.06B | - | -14.5% | -194.9% | $3.49 | |
|
ALVO
Alvotech
|
BEARISH | $1.08B | 15.09 | -% | 12.1% | $3.47 | |
|
BFLY
Butterfly Network, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $1.14B | - | -41.4% | -90.3% | $4.51 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-02 | SIM BRANDON | Chief Executive Officer | Option Exercise | 21,334 | $495,802 |
| 2026-01-13 | SCHMIDT DAVID | Director | Option Exercise | 20,000 | $115,800 |
| 2025-12-08 | LAM THOMAS S | Director | Option Exercise | 29,502 | $524,546 |
| 2025-11-10 | SIM KENNETH T | Officer and Director | Option Exercise | 29,502 | $524,546 |
| 2025-11-10 | MAZDYASNI MATTHEW | Director | Option Exercise | 20,000 | $364,000 |
| 2025-11-07 | KITAYAMA MITCHELL W | Director | Option Exercise | 12,000 | $218,400 |
| 2025-11-03 | MARSH LINDA | Director | Option Exercise | 20,000 | $364,000 |
| 2025-09-15 | KITAYAMA MITCHELL W | Director | Option Exercise | 8,000 | $145,600 |
| 2025-09-02 | SCHMIDT DAVID | Director | Option Exercise | 20,000 | $364,000 |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
NONE
9 analysts
BTIG
2026-02-02
Buy
Buy
Needham
2025-12-12
Buy
Jefferies
2025-11-25
Buy
Buy
Barclays
2025-11-24
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
TD Cowen
2025-11-10
Buy
Buy
BTIG
2025-11-07
Buy
Buy
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning ASTH from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.