AVAV AeroVironment, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
BEARISH
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AVAV Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NASDAQ
Industrials
Aerospace & Defense
Current Price
Live
$307.75
Analyst Target
$388.62
+26.3%
Upside
52W High
$417.86
52W Low
$102.25
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
78%
Analysis Accuracy
The Advanced Deterministic Scorecard reveals a critically weak financial health profile with a Piotroski F-Score of just 0/9, indicating severe deterioration in core profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency. Despite explosive 150.7% year-over-year revenue growth and a bullish analyst consensus of 'strong_buy', the company is unprofitable (negative net and operating margins), burning equity (ROE of -2.64%), and trading at an elevated Forward P/E of 66.71. Persistent earnings misses over the last four quarters, declining YoY EPS, insider selling, and technical weakness in the short term (-21.7% weekly drop) further undermine valuation. While strong liquidity ratios suggest no immediate solvency risk, the lack of earnings quality and deteriorating fundamentals present substantial downside risk.
Key Strengths
Exceptional revenue growth of 150.7% YoY, significantly outpacing sector average of 16.5%
Exceptionally strong liquidity position with a Current Ratio of 5.08 and Quick Ratio of 4.15
Low leverage with Debt/Equity ratio of 0.19, well below sector average of 1.78
Bullish analyst consensus with a strong_buy rating from 16 analysts and a mean target price of $388.62
Strong historical price performance: +259% over 3 years and +69.5% over 1 year
Key Risks
Critically low Piotroski F-Score of 0/9, signaling severe financial distress and deteriorating fundamentals
Negative profitability across all metrics: profit margin (-5.08%), operating margin (-6.40%), and ROE (-2.64%)
Earnings volatility and consistent misses: 3 out of last 4 quarters missed estimates with an average surprise of -11.74%
Insider selling trend: $2.15M in insider sales over the last 6 months with zero buy transactions
Sharp technical reversal: -21.7% weekly price drop despite strong long-term returns, suggesting weakening momentum
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$215.43
-30.0% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional AI analysis across 5 key categories
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
Profitability, Growth & Financial Health
Detailed profit margins, ROE, debt ratios, and liquidity metrics
Sector Comparison & Peer Analysis
Compare AVAV against industry averages and similar companies
Insider Trading & Analyst Ratings
Track insider transactions and Wall Street analyst recommendations
Past News Coverage
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