GSHD
BEARISH
$40.49
Live
Goosehead Insurance, Inc. · NASDAQ
Target $70.58
(+74.3%)
$39.64
52W Range
$114.76
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Apr 11, 2026
Market cap
$1.48B
P/E
38.93
ROE
N/A
Profit margin
7.6%
Debt/Equity
N/A
Dividend yield
N/A
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
85%
GSHD presents a precarious profile with a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, indicating only stable financial health. The stock is experiencing a severe valuation crisis, trading at $40.49 despite a growth-based intrinsic value of $7.28 and a negative Price-to-Book ratio (-10.45). While revenue continues to grow at 12.2%, earnings growth has turned negative (-15.7% YoY), and the price has collapsed by 63.5% over the last year. The massive divergence between the current price and intrinsic value, coupled with negative equity, outweighs the optimistic analyst target prices.
Key Strengths
Consistent revenue growth (12.2% YoY)
Strong operating margin of 29.26%
Healthy current ratio (1.60) and quick ratio (1.41)
Strong historical track record of beating earnings estimates
Significant forward P/E compression (15.27 vs 38.93 current)
Key Risks
Negative earnings growth (-15.7% YoY)
Negative book value (P/B -10.45) indicating potential equity deficits
Severe bearish price momentum (-63.5% 1Y change)
Extreme overvaluation relative to intrinsic value ($7.28)
Insider selling activity totaling $5.13M
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$12.5
-69.1% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
26
Weak
15
45
20
50
0
AI Verdict
High Risk / Overvalued
Key drivers: Negative earnings growth, Negative book value, Catastrophic 1-year price performance, Intrinsic value gap
Confidence
90%
Value
15/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Forward P/E is relatively low at 15.27
Watchpoints
- P/B is -10.45
- Current price is >5x the intrinsic value of $7.28
- P/E of 38.93 is high for declining earnings
Future
45/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Revenue growth remains positive at 12.2%
- Analyst target price of $70.58 suggests recovery potential
Watchpoints
- Earnings growth is trending downward (-15.7% YoY)
- Q/Q earnings growth is also negative (-16.3%)
Past
20/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- History of earnings surprises
Watchpoints
- 1Y return of -63.5%
- 6M return of -41.0%
- 5Y return of -56.0%
Health
50/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 is stable
- Current ratio of 1.60 shows adequate short-term liquidity
Watchpoints
- Negative book value is a major red flag for financial stability
Dividend
0/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
- No dividend yield
- 0% payout ratio
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$40.49
Analyst Target
$70.58
Upside/Downside
+74.3%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for GSHD and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-04-10
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
GSHD
Goosehead Insurance, Inc.
Primary
|
-56.0% | -19.3% | -63.5% | -41.0% | -8.3% | -4.6% |
|
BTT
Blackrock Municipal 2030 Target Term Trust
Peer
|
+1.3% | +10.1% | +11.1% | +3.8% | +1.3% | -0.8% |
|
DCOM
Dime Community Bancshares, Inc.
Peer
|
+29.1% | +80.4% | +42.2% | +14.2% | +7.7% | +4.0% |
|
BTX
BlackRock Innovation and Growth Term Trust
Peer
|
-44.5% | +26.4% | -6.8% | -2.8% | +1.2% | -1.6% |
|
BCAT
BlackRock Capital Allocation Term Trust
Peer
|
+28.2% | +62.6% | +16.7% | +9.3% | +5.2% | +0.9% |
GSH
Goosehead Insurance, Inc.
Primary
5Y
-56.0%
3Y
-19.3%
1Y
-63.5%
6M
-41.0%
1M
-8.3%
1W
-4.6%
BTT
Blackrock Municipal 2030 Target Term Trust
Peer
5Y
+1.3%
3Y
+10.1%
1Y
+11.1%
6M
+3.8%
1M
+1.3%
1W
-0.8%
DCO
Dime Community Bancshares, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+29.1%
3Y
+80.4%
1Y
+42.2%
6M
+14.2%
1M
+7.7%
1W
+4.0%
BTX
BlackRock Innovation and Growth Term Trust
Peer
5Y
-44.5%
3Y
+26.4%
1Y
-6.8%
6M
-2.8%
1M
+1.2%
1W
-1.6%
BCA
BlackRock Capital Allocation Term Trust
Peer
5Y
+28.2%
3Y
+62.6%
1Y
+16.7%
6M
+9.3%
1M
+5.2%
1W
+0.9%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
38.93
Forward P/E
15.27
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
-10.45
P/S Ratio
4.06
EV/Revenue
3.42
EV/EBITDA
13.92
Market Cap
$1.48B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
7.63%
Operating Margin
29.26%
Gross Margin
46.15%
ROE
N/A
ROA
12.07%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+12.2%
Earnings Growth
-15.7%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
+12.07%
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-16.3%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
N/A
Current Ratio
1.6
Good
Quick Ratio
1.41
Good
Cash/Share
$1.4
Financial Statement Flow
Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025
Revenue
$0.1B
Net Margin
11.8%
Total Assets
$0.4B
Liabilities
$0.6B
Equity
$-0.1B
Debt/Equity
-6.05x
Operating CF
$0.0B
CapEx
$-0.0B
Free Cash Flow
$0.0B
FCF Yield
72%
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-04-22
$N/A
2026-02-17
$0.64
+12.3% surprise
2025-10-22
$0.46
+0.5% surprise
2025-07-23
$0.49
-1.4% surprise
Financial Services Sector Comparison
Comparing GSHD against 341 companies in the Financial Services sector
(60 bullish, 147 neutral, 134 bearish)
P/E Ratio
38.93
This Stock
vs
54.09
Sector Avg
-28.0%
(Discount)
Profit Margin
7.63%
This Stock
vs
63.27%
Sector Avg
-87.9%
(Weaker)
Revenue Growth
12.2%
This Stock
vs
44.9%
Sector Avg
-72.8%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
1.6
This Stock
vs
3.26
Sector Avg
-51.0%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
GSHD
Goosehead Insurance, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $1.48B | 38.93 | -% | 7.6% | $40.49 | |
|
BTT
Blackrock Municipal 2030...
|
NEUTRAL | $1.48B | 24.82 | 3.5% | 66.0% | $22.59 | Compare |
|
DCOM
Dime Community Bancshares, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $1.51B | 14.58 | 7.7% | 27.0% | $34.41 | Compare |
|
BTX
BlackRock Innovation and...
|
BEARISH | $1.44B | 56.17 | -% | -% | $6.74 | Compare |
|
BCAT
BlackRock Capital...
|
BEARISH | $1.54B | 9.72 | -% | -% | $14.67 | Compare |
GSHD
Goosehead Insurance, Inc.
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$1.5B
P/E
38.9
ROE
-%
Price
$40.49
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 | GOLDBERG LOUIS | Director | Purchase | 5,575 | $250,039 |
| 2025-12-01 | MCCONNON THOMAS E. | Director | Sale | 69,686 | $5,130,522 |
| 2025-11-28 | MILLER MARK | Chief Executive Officer | Purchase | 5,000 | $361,700 |
| 2025-11-26 | O'CONNOR JOHN TERRY | General Counsel | Purchase | 2,100 | $150,801 |
| 2025-10-27 | JONES MARK EVAN JR. | Chief Operating Officer | Purchase | 873 | $64,986 |
GOLDBERG LOUIS
Director
2026-02-20
5,575 shares
·
$250,039
MCCONNON THOMAS E.
Director
2025-12-01
69,686 shares
·
$5,130,522
MILLER MARK
Chief Executive Officer
2025-11-28
5,000 shares
·
$361,700
O'CONNOR JOHN TERRY
General Counsel
2025-11-26
2,100 shares
·
$150,801
JONES MARK EVAN JR.
Chief Operating Officer
2025-10-27
873 shares
·
$64,986
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
12 analysts
JP Morgan
2026-04-09
Neutral
Neutral
Cantor Fitzgerald
2026-04-09
Overweight
Overweight
UBS
2026-04-08
Buy
Buy
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
2026-04-07
Outperform
Outperform
UBS
2026-02-23
Buy
Buy
JP Morgan
2026-02-23
Neutral
Neutral
BMO Capital
2026-02-18
Market Perform
Market Perform
Truist Securities
2026-02-18
Hold
Hold
Citizens
2026-02-18
Market Outperform
Market Outperform
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
2026-02-18
Outperform
Outperform
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning GSHD from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.