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HTLD

BEARISH
$11.01 Live
Heartland Express, Inc. · NASDAQ
Target $10.0 (-9.2%)
$7.0 52W Range $12.13

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Apr 11, 2026
Market cap
$852.78M
P/E
N/A
ROE
-6.6%
Profit margin
-6.5%
Debt/Equity
0.21
Dividend yield
0.73%

AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence
85%
HTLD presents a concerning fundamental profile characterized by a stable Piotroski F-Score (6/9) that masks a severe operational collapse. While the balance sheet remains clean with very low debt (D/E 0.21), the company is suffering from catastrophic revenue contraction (-26.10% YoY) and consistent earnings misses. The recent short-term price rally is disconnected from the underlying business reality, as the company has transitioned from a profitable entity to one with negative margins and plummeting EPS. With a current price ($11.01) exceeding the analyst target price ($10.00), the risk-reward profile is unfavorable.

Key Strengths

Very low Debt/Equity ratio (0.21) indicating minimal leverage risk
Stable Piotroski F-Score (6/9) suggesting basic financial health is maintained
Low Price-to-Book ratio (1.13) providing some asset-based floor
Manageable dividend payout ratio (42.11%)
Positive short-term price momentum (6M Change +39.1%)

Key Risks

Severe revenue decline (-26.10% YoY and Q/Q)
Negative profitability across Profit, Operating, and ROE metrics
Catastrophic YoY EPS growth (-1150%)
Consistent failure to meet earnings estimates (Average surprise -88.22%)
Bearish long-term price trend (5Y Change -41.2%)
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$9.5
-13.7% below current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
40
Moderate
Value
40
Future
15
Past
30
Health
70
Dividend
45
AI Verdict
Underperform
Key drivers: Revenue collapse, Negative margins, Strong balance sheet (low debt), Price/Value disconnect
Confidence
90%
Value
40/100

P/E is N/A due to losses; Forward P/E is expensive for the trucking sector given the growth trajectory.

Positives
  • Low P/S (1.06)
  • Low P/B (1.13)
Watchpoints
  • High Forward P/E (27.47) relative to negative current earnings
  • Trading above analyst target price
Future
15/100

Revenue growth of -26% is a critical red flag for a logistics company.

Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
  • Revenue growth is deeply negative
  • EPS growth is in freefall
  • Operating margins are negative
Past
30/100

The company has shifted from a consistent beat/profit cycle to a consistent miss/loss cycle.

Positives
  • Strong performance in 2020-2022
Watchpoints
  • 5-year price decline of 41.2%
  • Recent trend of missing earnings estimates by wide margins
Health
70/100

The balance sheet is the strongest part of the company, preventing immediate distress despite operational failure.

Positives
  • Low Debt/Equity (0.21)
  • Piotroski F-Score of 6/9
Watchpoints
  • Quick ratio below 1.0 (0.85)
  • Negative ROA and ROE
Dividend
45/100

Dividend is nominal and provides little incentive for investors.

Positives
  • Sustainable payout ratio (42.11%)
Watchpoints
  • Very low yield (0.73%)
  • Dividend strength score is low (40/100)

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$11.01
Analyst Target
$10.0
Upside/Downside
-9.2%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for HTLD and closest competitors.

Updated 2026-04-10
HTL
Heartland Express, Inc.
Primary
5Y
-41.2%
3Y
-28.9%
1Y
+28.7%
6M
+39.1%
1M
+13.3%
1W
+3.5%
EH
EHang Holdings Limited
Peer
5Y
-67.8%
3Y
+9.7%
1Y
-28.4%
6M
-40.9%
1M
-6.1%
1W
+9.2%
BBS
Barrett Business Services, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+137.1%
3Y
+61.7%
1Y
-13.4%
6M
-17.5%
1M
+3.9%
1W
-3.8%
BKS
BlackSky Technology Inc.
Peer
5Y
-68.5%
3Y
+95.7%
1Y
+126.8%
6M
+36.9%
1M
+27.6%
1W
-1.6%
BLD
Ballard Power Systems Inc.
Peer
5Y
-91.0%
3Y
-55.3%
1Y
+86.7%
6M
+15.5%
1M
+10.7%
1W
+18.9%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
N/A
Forward P/E
27.47
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
1.13
P/S Ratio
1.06
EV/Revenue
1.24
EV/EBITDA
10.23
Market Cap
$852.78M

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin -6.51%
Operating Margin -8.95%
Gross Margin 27.08%
ROE -6.65%
ROA -3.06%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth -26.1%
Earnings Growth N/A
Q/Q Revenue Growth -26.06%
Q/Q Earnings Growth N/A

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
0.21
Low debt
Current Ratio
1.04
Good
Quick Ratio
0.85
Poor
Cash/Share
$0.24

Financial Statement Flow

Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025

Revenue
$0.2B
Gross Margin
9.1%
Op. Margin
-8.9%
Net Margin
-10.8%
Total Assets
$1.2B
Liabilities
$0.4B
Equity
$0.8B
Debt/Equity
0.58x
Operating CF
$0.0B
CapEx
$-0.1B
Free Cash Flow
$-0.0B
FCF Yield
-296%

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-05-06
$N/A
2026-02-03
$-0.25
-181.1% surprise
2025-10-31
$-0.11
+9.4% surprise
2025-07-24
$-0.14
-92.9% surprise

Industrials Sector Comparison

Comparing HTLD against 199 companies in the Industrials sector (16 bullish, 81 neutral, 102 bearish)
Return on Equity (ROE)
-6.65%
This Stock
vs
-4.57%
Sector Avg
+45.6% (Excellent)
Profit Margin
-6.51%
This Stock
vs
26.28%
Sector Avg
-124.8% (Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.21
This Stock
vs
3.99
Sector Avg
-94.6% (Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
-26.1%
This Stock
vs
30.91%
Sector Avg
-184.4% (Slower)
Current Ratio
1.04
This Stock
vs
3.11
Sector Avg
-66.6% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

GERDIN MICHAEL J
Chief Executive Officer
Gift
2025-12-01
10,000,000 shares
ANN S. GERDIN REVOCABLE TRUST
Trustee
Gift
2025-12-01
10,000,000 shares
MILLIS DAVID PAUL
Officer and Director
Stock Award
2025-10-22
11,947 shares
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
HOLD
5 analysts
Barclays
2026-03-03
Maintains
Underweight Underweight
UBS
2026-02-05
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
Barclays
2026-01-15
Maintains
Underweight Underweight
Baird
2026-01-05
up
Neutral Outperform
Morgan Stanley
2025-12-08
Maintains
Equal-Weight Equal-Weight
Baird
2025-11-03
Maintains
Neutral Neutral

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning HTLD from our newsroom.

Newest → oldest
TradingGPT V2 Copilot
Fundamentals • Valuation • Risk
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