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MCRI

NEUTRAL
$97.96 Live
Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. · NASDAQ
Target $107.67 (+9.9%)
$73.61 52W Range $113.88

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Apr 14, 2026
Market cap
$1.75B
P/E
18.04
ROE
19.2%
Profit margin
18.6%
Debt/Equity
0.02
Dividend yield
1.22%

AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence
85%
MCRI presents a dichotomy between strong fundamental profitability and bearish market sentiment. The Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates a stable but not strengthening financial position, while the absence of an Altman Z-Score limits bankruptcy risk assessment, though the near-zero Debt/Equity ratio (0.02) suggests exceptional solvency. While the stock trades at a premium to its Graham Number ($60.72), it remains well below its growth-based intrinsic value ($160.19). However, a 0/100 technical trend and bearish insider activity from the CEO temper the bullish outlook provided by analyst targets.

Key Strengths

Extremely low leverage with a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.02
Strong profitability metrics including an 18.60% profit margin and 19.21% ROE
Consistent earnings performance with 3 of the last 4 quarters beating estimates
Valuation is attractive relative to the Consumer Cyclical sector average P/E of 36.17
Sustainable dividend with a low payout ratio of 22.10%

Key Risks

Bearish technical trend (0/100) indicating strong downward price momentum
Insider selling by the CEO suggests a lack of confidence in near-term upside
Liquidity risk indicated by a current ratio of 0.86 (below 1.0)
Modest top-line revenue growth of 4.10% YoY
High sensitivity to consumer discretionary spending cycles
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$112.5
+14.8% above current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
65
Strong
Value
75
Future
60
Past
80
Health
65
Dividend
45
AI Verdict
Stable Value Play with Momentum Headwinds
Key drivers: Low Debt, Strong ROE, Bearish Technicals, Insider Selling
Confidence
90%
Value
75/100

Ref P/E 18.04, Graham Number $60.72, Intrinsic Value $160.19

Positives
  • P/E of 18.04 is significantly lower than sector average
  • Trades below growth-based intrinsic value
Watchpoints
  • Trades at a 61% premium to the Graham Number
Future
60/100

Ref Revenue Growth 4.10%, Earnings Growth 445.20%

Positives
  • Explosive YoY earnings growth (445%)
  • Positive analyst target price of $107.67
Watchpoints
  • Slow revenue growth (4.10%) suggests limited organic expansion
Past
80/100

Ref 5Y Change +64.6%, Earnings Surprise +14.69%

Positives
  • Strong 5-year price appreciation of 64.6%
  • Consistent history of earnings surprises
Watchpoints
  • Recent 1-month price decline
Health
65/100

Ref Piotroski F-Score 4/9, Current Ratio 0.86

Positives
  • Negligible debt levels (Debt/Equity 0.02)
Watchpoints
  • Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 is only mediocre
  • Current ratio < 1.0 indicates potential short-term liquidity pressure
Dividend
45/100

Ref Yield 1.22%, Payout 22.10%

Positives
  • Very safe payout ratio (22.10%)
Watchpoints
  • Low dividend yield (1.22%)

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$97.96
Analyst Target
$107.67
Upside/Downside
+9.9%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for MCRI and closest competitors.

Updated 2026-04-13
MCR
Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.
Primary
5Y
+64.6%
3Y
+35.7%
1Y
+34.1%
6M
+3.3%
1M
-2.4%
1W
-0.2%
ADN
Adient plc
Peer
5Y
-36.0%
3Y
-47.7%
1Y
+27.9%
6M
-4.9%
1M
+11.6%
1W
-1.9%
AIN
Albany International Corp.
Peer
5Y
-20.0%
3Y
-45.0%
1Y
-27.5%
6M
-19.5%
1M
+12.4%
1W
-0.5%
ARC
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.
Peer
5Y
+65.6%
3Y
+8.2%
1Y
-2.4%
6M
+15.5%
1M
-7.9%
1W
-3.9%
ACV
ACV Auctions Inc.
Peer
5Y
-72.8%
3Y
-8.0%
1Y
-61.5%
6M
-41.7%
1M
+2.9%
1W
-2.8%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
18.04
Forward P/E
16.51
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
3.25
P/S Ratio
3.21
EV/Revenue
3.06
EV/EBITDA
8.75
Market Cap
$1.75B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 18.6%
Operating Margin 26.0%
Gross Margin 67.96%
ROE 19.21%
ROA 12.17%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth +4.1%
Earnings Growth +445.2%
Q/Q Revenue Growth +4.08%
Q/Q Earnings Growth +444.9%

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
0.02
Low debt
Current Ratio
0.86
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.74
Poor
Cash/Share
$5.39

Financial Statement Flow

Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025

Revenue
$0.1B
Gross Margin
55.3%
Op. Margin
20.8%
Net Margin
16.4%
Total Assets
$0.7B
Liabilities
$0.2B
Equity
$0.5B
Debt/Equity
0.33x
Operating CF
$0.0B
CapEx
$-0.0B
Free Cash Flow
$0.0B
FCF Yield
84%

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-04-21
$N/A
2026-02-04
$1.55
+9.1% surprise
2025-10-21
$1.71
+9.8% surprise
2025-07-16
$1.48
+25.2% surprise

Consumer Cyclical Sector Comparison

Comparing MCRI against 205 companies in the Consumer Cyclical sector (12 bullish, 78 neutral, 115 bearish)
P/E Ratio
18.04
This Stock
vs
36.28
Sector Avg
-50.3% (Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
19.21%
This Stock
vs
-8.76%
Sector Avg
-319.4% (Below Avg)
Profit Margin
18.6%
This Stock
vs
-4.71%
Sector Avg
-494.8% (Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.02
This Stock
vs
1.37
Sector Avg
-98.2% (Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
4.1%
This Stock
vs
4.71%
Sector Avg
-13.0% (Slower)
Current Ratio
0.86
This Stock
vs
2.41
Sector Avg
-64.3% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

FARAHI JOHN
Chief Executive Officer
Sell
2026-03-16
3,000 shares · $295,430
FARAHI JOHN
Chief Executive Officer
Sell
2025-12-17
6,000 shares · $619,480
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
BUY
6 analysts
Wells Fargo
2026-02-05
Maintains
Equal-Weight Equal-Weight
Wells Fargo
2025-10-22
Maintains
Equal-Weight Equal-Weight
Stifel
2025-10-22
Maintains
Hold Hold

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning MCRI from our newsroom.

Newest → oldest
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