MGPI
NEUTRAL
$19.33
Live
MGP Ingredients, Inc. · NASDAQ
Target $28.8
(+49.0%)
$16.45
52W Range
$34.99
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Apr 14, 2026
Market cap
$413.07M
P/E
N/A
ROE
-13.9%
Profit margin
-20.1%
Debt/Equity
0.37
Dividend yield
2.49%
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
80%
MGPI presents a classic 'value trap' profile: fundamentally healthy but operationally declining. While the Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicates strong financial health and the balance sheet is robust (Debt/Equity 0.37), the company is facing a severe growth crisis with revenue down 23.5% and EPS down 59.9% YoY. The stock is deeply undervalued on a Price-to-Book (0.57) and Price-to-Sales (0.77) basis, but this is offset by bearish insider activity and a nearly unsustainable dividend payout ratio of 96%.
Key Strengths
Strong Piotroski F-Score (7/9) indicating high financial quality
Deep value valuation with P/B of 0.57 and P/S of 0.77
Low leverage with a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.37
Strong short-term liquidity (Current Ratio 2.61)
Consistent track record of beating earnings estimates (3/4 last quarters)
Key Risks
Severe revenue contraction (-23.5% YoY)
Unsustainable dividend payout ratio (96%)
Heavy insider selling totaling $8.92M in the last 6 months
Negative net profit margin (-20.10%)
Extreme long-term price decay (5Y Change: -68.9%)
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$26.5
+37.1% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
52
Moderate
90
25
30
85
30
AI Verdict
Deep Value / High Risk
Key drivers: Strong balance sheet, Severe revenue decline, Extreme valuation discount
Confidence
85%
Value
90/100
Trading significantly below book value and historical multiples.
Positives
- P/B 0.57
- P/S 0.77
- Forward P/E 9.49
Watchpoints
- Price momentum is strongly bearish
Future
25/100
Growth metrics are in a steep decline, contradicting analyst optimism.
Positives
- Analyst target price of $28.80
Watchpoints
- Revenue growth -23.5%
- EPS growth -59.9%
Past
30/100
Long-term shareholders have suffered massive capital erosion.
Positives
- Consistent earnings beats
Watchpoints
- 5Y return -68.9%
- 3Y return -79.4%
Health
85/100
The company is financially stable and not at risk of insolvency.
Positives
- Piotroski 7/9
- Low Debt/Equity
- High Current Ratio
Watchpoints
- Negative profit margin
Dividend
30/100
Dividend is at high risk of a cut given the payout ratio and earnings decline.
Positives
- Yield of 2.49%
Watchpoints
- Payout ratio 96%
- Low dividend strength score (20/100)
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$19.33
Analyst Target
$28.8
Upside/Downside
+49.0%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for MGPI and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-04-13
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
MGPI
MGP Ingredients, Inc.
Primary
|
-68.9% | -79.4% | -27.4% | -18.3% | +8.1% | +0.8% |
|
HELE
Helen of Troy Limited
Peer
|
-92.3% | -81.5% | -52.5% | -18.8% | +2.1% | +14.6% |
|
LWAY
Lifeway Foods, Inc.
Peer
|
+343.6% | +305.3% | +3.4% | -7.7% | +16.7% | +7.2% |
|
BGS
B&G Foods, Inc.
Peer
|
-79.7% | -56.7% | -21.4% | +6.6% | +1.4% | +0.5% |
|
CVGW
Calavo Growers, Inc.
Peer
|
-60.4% | +2.5% | +20.8% | +10.1% | +7.3% | +7.5% |
MGP
MGP Ingredients, Inc.
Primary
5Y
-68.9%
3Y
-79.4%
1Y
-27.4%
6M
-18.3%
1M
+8.1%
1W
+0.8%
HEL
Helen of Troy Limited
Peer
5Y
-92.3%
3Y
-81.5%
1Y
-52.5%
6M
-18.8%
1M
+2.1%
1W
+14.6%
LWA
Lifeway Foods, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+343.6%
3Y
+305.3%
1Y
+3.4%
6M
-7.7%
1M
+16.7%
1W
+7.2%
BGS
B&G Foods, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-79.7%
3Y
-56.7%
1Y
-21.4%
6M
+6.6%
1M
+1.4%
1W
+0.5%
CVG
Calavo Growers, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-60.4%
3Y
+2.5%
1Y
+20.8%
6M
+10.1%
1M
+7.3%
1W
+7.5%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
N/A
Forward P/E
9.49
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
0.57
P/S Ratio
0.77
EV/Revenue
1.23
EV/EBITDA
6.13
Market Cap
$413.07M
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
-20.1%
Operating Margin
12.59%
Gross Margin
37.18%
ROE
-13.92%
ROA
3.95%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
-23.5%
Earnings Growth
N/A
Q/Q Revenue Growth
-23.5%
Q/Q Earnings Growth
N/A
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.37
Low debt
Current Ratio
2.61
Strong
Quick Ratio
0.69
Poor
Cash/Share
$0.86
Financial Statement Flow
Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025
Revenue
$0.1B
Gross Margin
34.9%
Op. Margin
12.6%
Net Margin
-97.3%
Total Assets
$1.2B
Liabilities
$0.5B
Equity
$0.7B
Debt/Equity
0.72x
Operating CF
$0.0B
CapEx
$-0.0B
Free Cash Flow
$0.0B
FCF Yield
83%
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-04-30
$N/A
2026-02-25
$0.63
+26.0% surprise
2025-10-29
$0.85
+40.9% surprise
2025-07-31
$0.97
+47.3% surprise
Consumer Defensive Sector Comparison
Comparing MGPI against 91 companies in the Consumer Defensive sector
(5 bullish, 39 neutral, 47 bearish)
Return on Equity (ROE)
-13.92%
This Stock
vs
-18.83%
Sector Avg
-26.1%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
-20.1%
This Stock
vs
-6.56%
Sector Avg
+206.5%
(Superior)
Debt to Equity
0.37
This Stock
vs
1.3
Sector Avg
-71.5%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
-23.5%
This Stock
vs
4.39%
Sector Avg
-635.6%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
2.61
This Stock
vs
2.26
Sector Avg
+15.6%
(Stronger)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
MGPI
MGP Ingredients, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $413.07M | - | -13.9% | -20.1% | $19.33 | |
|
HELE
Helen of Troy Limited
|
BEARISH | $386.0M | - | -63.9% | -44.0% | $16.73 | Compare |
|
LWAY
Lifeway Foods, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $371.58M | 27.42 | 17.6% | 6.5% | $24.4 | Compare |
|
BGS
B&G Foods, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $352.82M | - | -40.9% | -13.6% | $4.41 | Compare |
|
CVGW
Calavo Growers, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $495.47M | 30.8 | 8.0% | 2.6% | $27.72 | Compare |
MGPI
MGP Ingredients, Inc.
NEUTRAL
Mkt Cap
$413M
P/E
-
ROE
-13.9%
Price
$19.33
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | ROPER MARTIN F | Director | Stock Award | 2,112 | $38,734 |
| 2026-03-05 | FRANCIS JULIE | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 30,569 | - |
| 2026-03-05 | MOLAMPHY KATHLEEN SUSAN | Officer | Stock Award | 15,816 | - |
| 2026-03-05 | GALL BRANDON | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 21,979 | - |
| 2026-02-23 | FRANCIS JULIE | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 58,674 | - |
| 2026-02-23 | MOLAMPHY KATHLEEN SUSAN | Officer | Stock Award | 5,609 | - |
| 2026-02-23 | GALL BRANDON | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 13,687 | - |
| 2025-12-31 | ROPER MARTIN F | Director | Stock Award | 1,594 | $38,734 |
| 2025-12-10 | SEABERG KAREN L | Director | Sale | 304,535 | $7,508,592 |
| 2025-11-19 | KAPLAN CAROLINE LUX | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Sale | 60,000 | $1,413,854 |
ROPER MARTIN F
Director
2026-04-02
2,112 shares
·
$38,734
FRANCIS JULIE
Chief Executive Officer
2026-03-05
30,569 shares
MOLAMPHY KATHLEEN SUSAN
Officer
2026-03-05
15,816 shares
GALL BRANDON
Chief Financial Officer
2026-03-05
21,979 shares
FRANCIS JULIE
Chief Executive Officer
2026-02-23
58,674 shares
MOLAMPHY KATHLEEN SUSAN
Officer
2026-02-23
5,609 shares
GALL BRANDON
Chief Financial Officer
2026-02-23
13,687 shares
ROPER MARTIN F
Director
2025-12-31
1,594 shares
·
$38,734
SEABERG KAREN L
Director
2025-12-10
304,535 shares
·
$7,508,592
KAPLAN CAROLINE LUX
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
2025-11-19
60,000 shares
·
$1,413,854
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
STRONG_BUY
5 analysts
Roth Capital
2026-02-26
Buy
Buy
Wells Fargo
2026-02-26
Overweight
Overweight
Benchmark
2026-01-22
Buy
TD Cowen
2026-01-08
Hold
Hold
Wells Fargo
2026-01-05
Overweight
Overweight
TD Cowen
2025-10-30
Hold
Hold
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning MGPI from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
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