MSBI
BEARISH
$23.71
Live
Midland States Bancorp, Inc. · NASDAQ
Target $23.62
(-0.4%)
$14.24
52W Range
$24.72
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Apr 15, 2026
Market cap
$508.96M
P/E
N/A
ROE
-19.5%
Profit margin
-46.9%
Debt/Equity
N/A
Dividend yield
5.36%
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
85%
MSBI exhibits severe fundamental deterioration, highlighted by a weak Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 and negative profitability metrics (ROE -19.47%, ROA -1.77%). While the stock has seen strong 1-year price appreciation, the underlying financial health is precarious, evidenced by a dividend payout ratio of 124.75% which is fundamentally unsustainable. The combination of a bearish technical trend (10/100), consistent earnings misses (0/4 in the last year), and negative profit margins suggests the current price is detached from the company's operational reality.
Key Strengths
Strong 1-year price performance (+67.8%)
Low Forward P/E ratio (8.63)
Price-to-Book ratio near 1.10, suggesting fair asset valuation
High nominal dividend yield (5.36%)
Significant YoY revenue growth (278.70%), though likely inorganic
Key Risks
Unsustainable dividend payout ratio (124.75%)
Severe fundamental weakness (Piotroski F-Score 2/9)
Negative profit margins (-46.88%) and negative ROE
Consistent earnings misses with an average surprise of -40.57%
Sharp Q/Q revenue decline (-56.51%) indicating volatility
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$17.24
-27.3% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
32
Weak
45
30
50
15
20
AI Verdict
Value Trap
Key drivers: Piotroski F-Score 2/9, Negative ROE/ROA, Unsustainable Payout Ratio, Bearish Technical Trend
Confidence
90%
Value
45/100
Forward P/E of 8.63 looks attractive, but negative margins suggest a value trap.
Positives
- Low Forward P/E
- P/B near 1.0
Watchpoints
- Negative earnings make P/E misleading
- Lack of Graham Number support
Future
30/100
Growth is inconsistent and not translating to bottom-line profitability.
Positives
- High YoY revenue growth
Watchpoints
- Severe Q/Q revenue drop
- Consistent earnings misses
Past
50/100
Price action has been bullish despite deteriorating fundamentals.
Positives
- Strong 1Y and 6M price returns
Watchpoints
- Poor earnings track record over last 4 quarters
Health
15/100
F-Score of 2 indicates a high risk of financial distress or operational failure.
Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score 2/9
- Negative ROA/ROE
Dividend
20/100
Dividend is being paid out of capital or debt rather than earnings.
Positives
- High yield (5.36%)
Watchpoints
- Payout ratio > 100%
- Negative earnings
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$23.71
Analyst Target
$23.62
Upside/Downside
-0.4%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for MSBI and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-04-14
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
MSBI
Midland States Bancorp, Inc.
Primary
|
+9.0% | +40.8% | +67.8% | +48.0% | +13.6% | +0.7% |
|
HBCP
Home Bancorp, Inc.
Peer
|
+94.1% | +110.8% | +57.2% | +26.4% | +11.7% | +5.7% |
|
BWB
Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc.
Peer
|
+12.0% | +73.5% | +43.8% | +4.0% | +5.0% | +3.5% |
|
KRNY
Kearny Financial Corp.
Peer
|
-15.3% | +19.8% | +50.1% | +27.4% | +9.4% | +4.4% |
|
BLE
BlackRock Municipal Income Trust II
Peer
|
-10.7% | +12.5% | +5.4% | +11.2% | +2.6% | -0.2% |
MSB
Midland States Bancorp, Inc.
Primary
5Y
+9.0%
3Y
+40.8%
1Y
+67.8%
6M
+48.0%
1M
+13.6%
1W
+0.7%
HBC
Home Bancorp, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+94.1%
3Y
+110.8%
1Y
+57.2%
6M
+26.4%
1M
+11.7%
1W
+5.7%
BWB
Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+12.0%
3Y
+73.5%
1Y
+43.8%
6M
+4.0%
1M
+5.0%
1W
+3.5%
KRN
Kearny Financial Corp.
Peer
5Y
-15.3%
3Y
+19.8%
1Y
+50.1%
6M
+27.4%
1M
+9.4%
1W
+4.4%
BLE
BlackRock Municipal Income Trust II
Peer
5Y
-10.7%
3Y
+12.5%
1Y
+5.4%
6M
+11.2%
1M
+2.6%
1W
-0.2%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
N/A
Forward P/E
8.63
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
1.1
P/S Ratio
1.92
EV/Revenue
3.48
EV/EBITDA
N/A
Market Cap
$508.96M
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
-46.88%
Operating Margin
34.15%
Gross Margin
N/A
ROE
-19.47%
ROA
-1.77%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+278.7%
Earnings Growth
N/A
Q/Q Revenue Growth
-56.51%
Q/Q Earnings Growth
N/A
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
N/A
Current Ratio
N/A
Quick Ratio
N/A
Cash/Share
$6.25
Financial Statement Flow
Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025
Revenue
$0.1B
Net Margin
-4.9%
Total Assets
$6.5B
Liabilities
$5.9B
Equity
$0.6B
Debt/Equity
10.52x
Operating CF
$-0.0B
CapEx
$-0.0B
Free Cash Flow
$-0.0B
FCF Yield
110%
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-04-23
$N/A
2026-01-22
$0.53
-29.3% surprise
2025-10-30
$0.24
-62.5% surprise
2025-07-24
$0.44
-29.9% surprise
Financial Services Sector Comparison
Comparing MSBI against 484 companies in the Financial Services sector
(87 bullish, 202 neutral, 195 bearish)
Return on Equity (ROE)
-19.47%
This Stock
vs
0.23%
Sector Avg
-8613.1%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
-46.88%
This Stock
vs
50.44%
Sector Avg
-192.9%
(Weaker)
Revenue Growth
278.7%
This Stock
vs
37.35%
Sector Avg
+646.2%
(Fast Growth)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
MSBI
Midland States Bancorp, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $508.96M | - | -19.5% | -46.9% | $23.71 | |
|
HBCP
Home Bancorp, Inc.
|
BULLISH | $508.5M | 11.15 | 11.1% | 31.0% | $64.88 | Compare |
|
BWB
Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc.
|
BULLISH | $509.75M | 12.3 | 9.5% | 33.6% | $18.32 | Compare |
|
KRNY
Kearny Financial Corp.
|
NEUTRAL | $504.95M | 15.44 | 4.3% | 19.8% | $8.03 | Compare |
|
BLE
BlackRock Municipal Income Trust II
|
BEARISH | $500.66M | - | -6.6% | -90.8% | $10.49 | Compare |
MSBI
Midland States...
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$509M
P/E
-
ROE
-19.5%
Price
$23.71
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | LUDWIG JEFFREY G | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 909 | $17,316 |
| 2026-03-31 | LUDWIG JEFFREY G | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 1,312 | $24,994 |
| 2026-03-31 | JAMESON JEREMY ANDREW | Officer | Stock Award | 751 | $14,307 |
| 2026-03-31 | JAMESON JEREMY ANDREW | Officer | Stock Award | 1,311 | $24,975 |
| 2026-01-28 | MOONEY KYLE OWEN | Chief Operating Officer | Sale | 2,808 | $63,657 |
| 2025-12-31 | JAMESON JEREMY ANDREW | Officer | Stock Award | 471 | $9,971 |
| 2025-12-03 | SMITH JEFFREY C. | Director | Purchase | 500 | $8,845 |
| 2025-12-03 | BINGHAM RICHARD DEAN | Director | Purchase | 5,000 | $87,800 |
| 2025-12-03 | CASEY DANIEL EDWARD | Officer | Purchase | 5,000 | $89,443 |
| 2025-12-03 | JAMESON JEREMY ANDREW | Officer | Purchase | 5,598 | $99,029 |
| 2025-11-03 | SPRING DONALD J | Officer | Stock Award | 4,000 | $58,560 |
| 2025-11-03 | MEFFORD JEFFREY S. | President | Stock Award | 23,310 | $341,258 |
| 2025-11-03 | LUDWIG JEFFREY G | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 38,410 | $562,322 |
| 2025-11-03 | LEMKE ERIC | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 14,940 | $218,722 |
| 2025-11-03 | CASEY DANIEL EDWARD | Officer | Stock Award | 10,760 | $157,526 |
LUDWIG JEFFREY G
Chief Executive Officer
2026-03-31
909 shares
·
$17,316
LUDWIG JEFFREY G
Chief Executive Officer
2026-03-31
1,312 shares
·
$24,994
JAMESON JEREMY ANDREW
Officer
2026-03-31
751 shares
·
$14,307
JAMESON JEREMY ANDREW
Officer
2026-03-31
1,311 shares
·
$24,975
MOONEY KYLE OWEN
Chief Operating Officer
2026-01-28
2,808 shares
·
$63,657
JAMESON JEREMY ANDREW
Officer
2025-12-31
471 shares
·
$9,971
SMITH JEFFREY C.
Director
2025-12-03
500 shares
·
$8,845
BINGHAM RICHARD DEAN
Director
2025-12-03
5,000 shares
·
$87,800
CASEY DANIEL EDWARD
Officer
2025-12-03
5,000 shares
·
$89,443
JAMESON JEREMY ANDREW
Officer
2025-12-03
5,598 shares
·
$99,029
SPRING DONALD J
Officer
2025-11-03
4,000 shares
·
$58,560
MEFFORD JEFFREY S.
President
2025-11-03
23,310 shares
·
$341,258
LUDWIG JEFFREY G
Chief Executive Officer
2025-11-03
38,410 shares
·
$562,322
LEMKE ERIC
Chief Financial Officer
2025-11-03
14,940 shares
·
$218,722
CASEY DANIEL EDWARD
Officer
2025-11-03
10,760 shares
·
$157,526
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
HOLD
4 analysts
Piper Sandler
2026-01-26
Neutral
Neutral
DA Davidson
2026-01-26
Neutral
Neutral
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
2025-12-08
Market Perform
Market Perform
Piper Sandler
2025-12-02
Neutral
Neutral
Piper Sandler
2025-11-04
Neutral
Neutral
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
2025-11-03
Market Perform
Market Perform
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning MSBI from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.