NCNO
BEARISH
$17.47
Live
nCino, Inc. · NASDAQ
Target $24.0
(+37.4%)
$13.8
52W Range
$33.92
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Apr 15, 2026
Market cap
$2.0B
P/E
349.4
ROE
0.9%
Profit margin
0.9%
Debt/Equity
0.26
Dividend yield
N/A
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
85%
NCNO presents a stark divergence between deterministic value and market pricing, with a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicating stable financial health but a Graham Number of $3.23 and Intrinsic Value of $0.35 that are significantly below the current price of $17.47. While the company has a strong track record of earnings surprises and a promising forward P/E of 12.54, these are offset by sluggish revenue growth (5.9%) and extremely thin profit margins (0.87%). The bearish outlook is further solidified by aggressive insider selling and a total lack of technical momentum.
Key Strengths
Stable financial health as indicated by a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9
Strong history of beating quarterly earnings estimates
Low Debt/Equity ratio (0.26) suggesting manageable leverage
Attractive Forward P/E (12.54) if earnings projections materialize
High gross margins (60.76%) typical of scalable software models
Key Risks
Extreme valuation gap between current price and Graham/Intrinsic values
Very low net profit margins (0.87%) leaving little room for error
Stagnant revenue growth (5.9% YoY) for a technology company
Strong insider selling signal with 14 sell transactions and 0 buys
Severe long-term price erosion (5Y Change: -75.1%)
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$4.5
-74.2% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
29
Weak
15
45
20
65
0
AI Verdict
Value Trap
Key drivers: Massive valuation premium over deterministic baselines, Bearish insider sentiment, Poor long-term price performance
Confidence
80%
Value
15/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Low Forward P/E
Watchpoints
- Trailing P/E of 349.40
- Price is >5x the Graham Number
- Intrinsic value is negligible ($0.35)
Future
45/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Consistent earnings beats
- High recent Q/Q EPS growth
Watchpoints
- Low YoY revenue growth (5.9%)
Past
20/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Recent 1-month recovery (+14.8%)
Watchpoints
- 5-year return of -75.1%
- Consistent downward trend over 1Y and 3Y
Health
65/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Piotroski F-Score 6/9
- Low Debt/Equity
Watchpoints
- Tight Current Ratio (1.00)
- Quick Ratio below 1.0 (0.87)
Dividend
0/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
- No dividend payments
- 0/100 dividend strength
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$17.47
Analyst Target
$24.0
Upside/Downside
+37.4%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for NCNO and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-04-14
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
NCNO
nCino, Inc.
Primary
|
-75.1% | -30.1% | -26.2% | -29.8% | +14.8% | -3.0% |
|
ICHR
Ichor Holdings, Ltd.
Peer
|
-2.5% | +90.3% | +207.3% | +214.4% | +28.3% | +19.5% |
|
DGII
Digi International Inc.
Peer
|
+180.4% | +55.5% | +116.1% | +47.1% | +5.2% | +8.3% |
|
EVCM
EverCommerce Inc.
Peer
|
-34.9% | +7.0% | +23.0% | +3.1% | -4.3% | -0.5% |
|
MXL
MaxLinear, Inc.
Peer
|
-42.6% | -31.6% | +117.8% | +27.7% | +24.5% | +17.1% |
NCN
nCino, Inc.
Primary
5Y
-75.1%
3Y
-30.1%
1Y
-26.2%
6M
-29.8%
1M
+14.8%
1W
-3.0%
ICH
Ichor Holdings, Ltd.
Peer
5Y
-2.5%
3Y
+90.3%
1Y
+207.3%
6M
+214.4%
1M
+28.3%
1W
+19.5%
DGI
Digi International Inc.
Peer
5Y
+180.4%
3Y
+55.5%
1Y
+116.1%
6M
+47.1%
1M
+5.2%
1W
+8.3%
EVC
EverCommerce Inc.
Peer
5Y
-34.9%
3Y
+7.0%
1Y
+23.0%
6M
+3.1%
1M
-4.3%
1W
-0.5%
MXL
MaxLinear, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-42.6%
3Y
-31.6%
1Y
+117.8%
6M
+27.7%
1M
+24.5%
1W
+17.1%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
349.4
Forward P/E
12.54
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
1.88
P/S Ratio
3.4
EV/Revenue
3.71
EV/EBITDA
37.32
Market Cap
$2.0B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
0.87%
Operating Margin
1.58%
Gross Margin
60.76%
ROE
0.9%
ROA
0.65%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+5.9%
Earnings Growth
N/A
Q/Q Revenue Growth
+5.87%
Q/Q Earnings Growth
N/A
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.26
Low debt
Current Ratio
1.0
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.87
Poor
Cash/Share
$0.77
Financial Statement Flow
Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q1 2026
Revenue
$0.1B
Gross Margin
61.4%
Op. Margin
1.9%
Net Margin
5.6%
Total Assets
$1.6B
Liabilities
$0.6B
Equity
$1.1B
Debt/Equity
0.55x
Operating CF
$0.0B
CapEx
$-0.0B
Free Cash Flow
$0.0B
FCF Yield
96%
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-05-27
$N/A
2026-03-31
$0.37
+72.2% surprise
2025-12-03
$0.06
+444.8% surprise
2025-08-26
$-0.13
-16.0% surprise
Technology Sector Comparison
Comparing NCNO against 490 companies in the Technology sector
(40 bullish, 167 neutral, 283 bearish)
P/E Ratio
349.4
This Stock
vs
87.09
Sector Avg
+301.2%
(Expensive)
Return on Equity (ROE)
0.9%
This Stock
vs
-34.81%
Sector Avg
-102.6%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
0.87%
This Stock
vs
-12.62%
Sector Avg
-106.9%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.26
This Stock
vs
0.71
Sector Avg
-63.4%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
5.9%
This Stock
vs
5058.57%
Sector Avg
-99.9%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
1.0
This Stock
vs
3.77
Sector Avg
-73.5%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
NCNO
nCino, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $2.0B | 349.4 | 0.9% | 0.9% | $17.47 | |
|
ICHR
Ichor Holdings, Ltd.
|
BEARISH | $2.0B | - | -7.7% | -5.6% | $57.5 | Compare |
|
DGII
Digi International Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $1.96B | 46.62 | 6.8% | 9.5% | $52.22 | Compare |
|
EVCM
EverCommerce Inc.
|
BEARISH | $2.06B | 114.6 | 2.5% | 3.0% | $11.46 | Compare |
|
MXL
MaxLinear, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $1.93B | - | -28.2% | -29.2% | $21.56 | Compare |
NCNO
nCino, Inc.
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$2.0B
P/E
349.4
ROE
0.9%
Price
$17.47
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | DESMOND SEAN | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 15,440 | $263,406 |
| 2026-04-06 | DESMOND SEAN | Chief Executive Officer | Option Exercise | 8,065 | $40,164 |
| 2026-04-02 | RIEGER APRIL | Officer | Sale | 5,747 | $96,285 |
| 2026-04-02 | SELLERS JEANETTE E | Officer | Sale | 735 | $12,314 |
| 2026-04-02 | DESMOND SEAN | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 5,747 | $96,285 |
| 2026-04-02 | ORENSTEIN GREGORY D | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 8,840 | $148,105 |
| 2026-04-02 | NAUDE PIERRE | Director | Sale | 22,700 | $380,316 |
| 2026-02-04 | SELLERS JEANETTE E | Officer | Sale | 3,512 | $64,690 |
| 2026-02-03 | RIEGER APRIL | Officer | Sale | 8,078 | $150,913 |
| 2026-02-03 | DESMOND SEAN | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 16,047 | $299,790 |
| 2026-02-03 | ORENSTEIN GREGORY D | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 10,562 | $197,319 |
| 2026-02-03 | NAUDE PIERRE | Director | Sale | 24,273 | $453,468 |
| 2026-02-02 | NAUDE PIERRE | Director | Stock Award | 3,516 | - |
| 2026-01-05 | DESMOND SEAN | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 7,331 | $179,683 |
| 2026-01-05 | DESMOND SEAN | Chief Executive Officer | Option Exercise | 7,331 | $36,508 |
DESMOND SEAN
Chief Executive Officer
2026-04-06
15,440 shares
·
$263,406
DESMOND SEAN
Chief Executive Officer
2026-04-06
8,065 shares
·
$40,164
RIEGER APRIL
Officer
2026-04-02
5,747 shares
·
$96,285
SELLERS JEANETTE E
Officer
2026-04-02
735 shares
·
$12,314
DESMOND SEAN
Chief Executive Officer
2026-04-02
5,747 shares
·
$96,285
ORENSTEIN GREGORY D
Chief Financial Officer
2026-04-02
8,840 shares
·
$148,105
NAUDE PIERRE
Director
2026-04-02
22,700 shares
·
$380,316
SELLERS JEANETTE E
Officer
2026-02-04
3,512 shares
·
$64,690
RIEGER APRIL
Officer
2026-02-03
8,078 shares
·
$150,913
DESMOND SEAN
Chief Executive Officer
2026-02-03
16,047 shares
·
$299,790
ORENSTEIN GREGORY D
Chief Financial Officer
2026-02-03
10,562 shares
·
$197,319
NAUDE PIERRE
Director
2026-02-03
24,273 shares
·
$453,468
NAUDE PIERRE
Director
2026-02-02
3,516 shares
DESMOND SEAN
Chief Executive Officer
2026-01-05
7,331 shares
·
$179,683
DESMOND SEAN
Chief Executive Officer
2026-01-05
7,331 shares
·
$36,508
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
14 analysts
Barclays
2026-04-01
Overweight
Overweight
Goldman Sachs
2026-04-01
Neutral
Neutral
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
2026-04-01
Outperform
Outperform
Truist Securities
2026-04-01
Hold
Hold
Stephens & Co.
2026-04-01
Overweight
Overweight
Citizens
2026-04-01
Market Outperform
Market Outperform
Morgan Stanley
2026-04-01
Overweight
Overweight
Needham
2026-04-01
Buy
Buy
Piper Sandler
2026-04-01
Neutral
Overweight
Baird
2026-03-31
Outperform
Outperform
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning NCNO from our newsroom.
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