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PZZA

BEARISH
$37.46 Live
Papa John's International, Inc. · NASDAQ
Target $37.91 (+1.2%)
$29.55 52W Range $55.74

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Apr 18, 2026
Market cap
$1.23B
P/E
41.62
ROE
N/A
Profit margin
1.5%
Debt/Equity
N/A
Dividend yield
4.91%

AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence
90%
PZZA exhibits significant financial distress, anchored by a mediocre Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 and a massive disconnect between its current price ($37.46) and growth-based intrinsic value ($6.30). The company is operating with negative equity (Price/Book: -2.76) and a critically unsustainable dividend payout ratio of 204.44%. With revenue and earnings growth both in steep decline (-6.10% and -53.50% YoY respectively), the current valuation is unsupported by fundamental performance. The technical trend is completely bearish (0/100), suggesting a lack of market confidence despite analyst 'buy' recommendations.

Key Strengths

Low Price-to-Sales ratio (0.60) relative to revenue
Positive Return on Assets (7.93%)
Consistent history of meeting or beating EPS estimates in several quarters
Strong brand recognition within the restaurant industry
Forward P/E (20.41) suggests analysts expect a recovery in earnings

Key Risks

Negative shareholder equity (Price/Book -2.76) indicating liabilities exceed assets
Unsustainable dividend payout ratio (204.44%) which risks a dividend cut
Severe earnings contraction (-53.50% YoY)
Poor liquidity with a Current Ratio of 0.82 and Quick Ratio of 0.50
Negative revenue growth indicating loss of market share or pricing power
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$8.5
-77.3% below current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
24
Weak
Value
20
Future
15
Past
30
Health
35
Dividend
20
AI Verdict
High Risk / Overvalued
Key drivers: Negative Equity, Earnings Collapse, Dividend Instability, Liquidity Shortfall
Confidence
90%
Value
20/100

Trades at a massive premium to intrinsic value ($6.30) and Graham baseline.

Positives
  • Low P/S ratio
Watchpoints
  • P/E of 41.62 is high for declining growth
  • PEG ratio of 2.40 indicates overvaluation
  • Negative Price/Book ratio
Future
15/100

Growth metrics are trending sharply downward across all timeframes.

Positives
  • Forward P/E is lower than trailing P/E
Watchpoints
  • YoY Revenue growth -6.10%
  • YoY Earnings growth -53.50%
  • Q/Q Earnings growth -52.20%
Past
30/100

Long-term value destruction despite a short-term 1-year bounce.

Positives
  • 1Y price change is positive (+25.9%)
Watchpoints
  • 5Y change is -54.3%
  • 3Y change is -45.9%
  • Recent 6M trend is -26.2%
Health
35/100

Liquidity is tight and the balance sheet is structurally compromised.

Positives
  • Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 is 'Stable' (barely)
Watchpoints
  • Current Ratio < 1.0
  • Quick Ratio 0.50
  • Negative Equity
Dividend
20/100

Dividend is being paid out of capital or debt rather than earnings.

Positives
  • Relatively high yield of 4.91%
Watchpoints
  • Payout ratio of 204.44% is fundamentally broken

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$37.46
Analyst Target
$37.91
Upside/Downside
+1.2%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for PZZA and closest competitors.

Updated 2026-04-17
PZZ
Papa John's International, Inc.
Primary
5Y
-54.3%
3Y
-45.9%
1Y
+25.9%
6M
-26.2%
1M
+9.1%
1W
+5.1%
LIN
Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+10.0%
3Y
+107.0%
1Y
+137.9%
6M
+62.7%
1M
+8.4%
1W
+12.1%
GII
G-III Apparel Group, Ltd.
Peer
5Y
-4.6%
3Y
+94.0%
1Y
+19.4%
6M
+14.6%
1M
+1.0%
1W
+6.5%
OLP
Olaplex Holdings, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-91.7%
3Y
-47.8%
1Y
+63.2%
6M
+65.8%
1M
+63.2%
1W
+0.5%
MLK
MillerKnoll, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-59.0%
3Y
-3.3%
1Y
-0.1%
6M
-3.3%
1M
-17.6%
1W
+8.9%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
41.62
Forward P/E
20.41
PEG Ratio
2.4
P/B Ratio
-2.76
P/S Ratio
0.6
EV/Revenue
1.04
EV/EBITDA
10.61
Market Cap
$1.23B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 1.49%
Operating Margin 6.78%
Gross Margin 20.73%
ROE N/A
ROA 7.93%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth -6.1%
Earnings Growth -53.5%
Q/Q Revenue Growth -6.14%
Q/Q Earnings Growth -52.2%

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
N/A
Current Ratio
0.82
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.5
Poor
Cash/Share
$1.13

Financial Statement Flow

Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025

Revenue
$0.5B
Gross Margin
-4.5%
Op. Margin
3.1%
Net Margin
1.4%
Total Assets
$0.8B
Liabilities
$1.3B
Equity
$-0.4B
Debt/Equity
-2.86x
Operating CF
$0.0B
CapEx
$-0.0B
Free Cash Flow
$-0.0B
FCF Yield
-13%

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-05-07
$N/A
2026-02-26
$0.34
+3.8% surprise
2025-11-06
$0.32
-21.4% surprise
2025-08-07
$0.41
+20.6% surprise

Consumer Cyclical Sector Comparison

Comparing PZZA against 258 companies in the Consumer Cyclical sector (14 bullish, 87 neutral, 157 bearish)
P/E Ratio
41.62
This Stock
vs
34.81
Sector Avg
+19.6% (Premium)
Profit Margin
1.49%
This Stock
vs
-5.5%
Sector Avg
-127.1% (Weaker)
Revenue Growth
-6.1%
This Stock
vs
15.67%
Sector Avg
-138.9% (Slower)
Current Ratio
0.82
This Stock
vs
2.42
Sector Avg
-66.3% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

VASCONI JOHN KEVIN
Chief Technology Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-02
19,568 shares
COLLINS CHRISTOPHER K
Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-02
11,155 shares
THANAWALA RAVI
Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-02
39,136 shares
PENEGOR TODD ALLAN
Chief Executive Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-02
100,188 shares
OYLER CAROLINE MILLER
Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-02
19,568 shares
MILLER JOHN CHRIS
Director
Stock Award
2026-02-20
106 shares · $3,349
KOELLNER LAURETTE T
Director
Stock Award
2026-02-20
288 shares · $9,110
COLEMAN CHRISTOPHER L
Director
Stock Award
2026-02-20
304 shares · $9,603
GIBBS STEPHEN L
Director
Stock Award
2026-02-20
103 shares · $3,254
GARRATT JOHN W
Director
Stock Award
2026-02-20
103 shares · $3,254
MEDINA SONYA E.
Director
Stock Award
2026-02-20
230 shares · $7,266
MANGAN JOCELYN C
Director
Stock Award
2026-02-20
226 shares · $7,139
MILLER JOHN CHRIS
Director
Stock Award
2025-11-28
78 shares · $3,281
KOELLNER LAURETTE T
Director
Stock Award
2025-11-28
212 shares · $8,934
COLEMAN CHRISTOPHER L
Director
Stock Award
2025-11-28
223 shares · $9,382
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

SEC Filings

Recent regulatory filings from the SEC EDGAR database

DEF 14A
DEF 14A
2026-03-26

PZZA filed a definitive proxy statement (DEF 14A) on March 26, 2026, providing shareholders with necessary information and voting materials for the upcoming annual meeting.

10-K
10-K
2026-02-26

PZZA filed its annual 10-K on February 26, 2026, including sections on business operations, risk factors, and management's discussion and analysis. Specific financial highlights and risk details were not provided in the available excerpts.

8-K
8-K
2026-02-26

PZZA filed an 8-K on February 26, 2026, likely to report its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results.

8-K
8-K
2026-01-29

PZZA filed an 8-K on January 29, 2026, likely to announce its fourth quarter and full-year financial results.

8-K
8-K
2025-11-25

PZZA filed an 8-K on November 25, 2025, likely to announce its quarterly financial results or a material corporate update.

8-K
8-K
2025-11-18

PZZA filed an 8-K on November 18, 2025, likely to announce its third-quarter financial results.

10-Q
10-Q
2025-11-06

PZZA is experiencing inflationary pressures on food commodities, labor, and energy, which are impacting profitability and gross margins across its company-owned restaurants and QC Centers. To mitigate these costs, the company is utilizing menu price increases, expense controls, and forward purchase contracts for key ingredients like cheese. Key risks include competitive pricing pressures and rising delivery aggregator fees that may reduce unit sales and franchisee royalty fees.

8-K
8-K
2025-11-06

PZZA filed an 8-K on November 6, 2025, likely to announce its third-quarter financial results.

10-Q
10-Q
2025-08-07

PZZA is experiencing inflationary pressures on food commodities, labor, and energy, which are impacting profitability and gross margins. To mitigate these costs, the company is implementing menu price increases, expense controls, and forward purchase contracts for cheese. Key risks include competitive pricing pressures and rising delivery aggregator fees that may reduce unit sales and franchisee royalty fees.

8-K
8-K
2025-08-07

PZZA filed an 8-K on August 7, 2025, likely to announce its second-quarter financial results.

8-K
8-K
2025-07-02
8-K
8-K
2025-06-05
8-K
8-K
2025-05-08
10-Q
10-Q
2025-05-08
8-K
8-K
2025-05-01
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR. AI summaries generated automatically.

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
BUY
11 analysts
Benchmark
2026-02-27
Maintains
Buy Buy
Stephens & Co.
2026-02-27
Maintains
Overweight Overweight
Mizuho
2026-02-20
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
Mizuho
2026-01-09
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
Stephens & Co.
2025-11-07
Maintains
Overweight Overweight
Mizuho
2025-10-28
init
Neutral

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning PZZA from our newsroom.

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