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RWAY

BEARISH
$6.77 Live
Runway Growth Finance Corp. · NASDAQ
Target $8.89 (+31.4%)
$6.37 52W Range $11.4

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Apr 19, 2026
Market cap
$287.49M
P/E
7.28
ROE
6.8%
Profit margin
24.8%
Debt/Equity
0.93
Dividend yield
20.24%

AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence
85%
RWAY presents as a classic 'value trap' with a stable Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 but severe fundamental deterioration. While the stock trades at a significant discount to book value (P/B 0.50) and the Graham Number ($16.76), these metrics are offset by a collapsing earnings profile (-72.9% YoY) and an unsustainable dividend payout ratio of 150.54%. The combination of bearish insider selling ($15M) and a 0/100 technical trend suggests a lack of confidence in a near-term recovery despite analyst 'buy' ratings.

Key Strengths

Very low P/E ratio (7.28) and Forward P/E (4.70)
Trading at a deep discount to book value (P/B 0.50)
Strong operating margins (71.97%)
Current price is well below the Graham Number defensive value
Positive profit margins (24.79%)

Key Risks

Unsustainable dividend payout ratio (150.54%) indicating a likely dividend cut
Severe earnings collapse (-72.9% YoY and -73.9% Q/Q)
Negative revenue growth (-11.1% YoY)
Strong bearish insider sentiment with $15M in recent sales
Technical trend is completely bearish (0/100)
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$6.51
-3.8% below current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
37
Weak
Value
70
Future
15
Past
40
Health
50
Dividend
10
AI Verdict
Value Trap
Key drivers: Earnings collapse, Dividend sustainability risk, Insider liquidation
Confidence
90%
Value
70/100

Strong Graham Number support, but growth-based intrinsic value suggests the stock is fairly valued or slightly overvalued.

Positives
  • P/B of 0.50
  • P/E of 7.28
Watchpoints
  • Intrinsic value ($6.51) is below current price
Future
15/100

Growth metrics are in a state of freefall, contradicting the 'Buy' analyst consensus.

Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
  • YoY Earnings Growth -72.9%
  • Q/Q Revenue Growth -66.76%
Past
40/100

The company has transitioned from a consistent beat-performer to a consistent miss-performer.

Positives
  • Historical track record of beating estimates in 2022-2023
Watchpoints
  • Recent 4 quarters show only 1 beat
  • Average surprise of -14.7%
Health
50/100

Financial health is mediocre; not in immediate distress but lacking strength.

Positives
  • Piotroski F-Score of 4 (Stable)
Watchpoints
  • Debt/Equity near 1.0
  • Low ROE (6.81%)
Dividend
10/100

The dividend is likely being paid out of capital or debt rather than earnings.

Positives
  • Extremely high yield (20.24%)
Watchpoints
  • Payout ratio of 150.54% is mathematically unsustainable

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$6.77
Analyst Target
$8.89
Upside/Downside
+31.4%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for RWAY and closest competitors.

Updated 2026-04-17
RWA
Runway Growth Finance Corp.
Primary
5Y
-4.8%
3Y
-8.1%
1Y
-14.8%
6M
-26.1%
1M
-3.8%
1W
+2.7%
CHM
Chemung Financial Corporation
Peer
5Y
+58.0%
3Y
+56.3%
1Y
+43.6%
6M
+20.1%
1M
+15.4%
1W
-1.2%
ACV
Virtus Diversified Income & Convertible Fund
Peer
5Y
+58.2%
3Y
+76.3%
1Y
+36.2%
6M
+30.3%
1M
+7.0%
1W
+2.3%
JRV
James River Group Holdings, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-86.2%
3Y
-67.5%
1Y
+49.7%
6M
+19.6%
1M
-3.1%
1W
+1.3%
HCA
Hall Chadwick Acquisition Corp.
Peer
5Y
0.0%
3Y
0.0%
1Y
0.0%
6M
0.0%
1M
-0.4%
1W
-0.1%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
7.28
Forward P/E
4.7
PEG Ratio
1.16
P/B Ratio
0.5
P/S Ratio
2.09
EV/Revenue
4.92
EV/EBITDA
N/A
Market Cap
$287.49M

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 24.79%
Operating Margin 71.97%
Gross Margin 100.0%
ROE 6.81%
ROA 6.07%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth -11.1%
Earnings Growth -72.9%
Q/Q Revenue Growth -66.76%
Q/Q Earnings Growth -73.9%

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
0.93
Moderate
Current Ratio
1.19
Good
Quick Ratio
1.02
Good
Cash/Share
$0.5

Financial Statement Flow

Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025

Revenue
$0.0B
Net Margin
70.9%
Total Assets
$1.0B
Liabilities
$0.5B
Equity
$0.5B
Debt/Equity
0.98x
Operating CF
$0.0B
Free Cash Flow
$0.0B
FCF Yield
100%

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-05-07
$N/A
2026-03-12
$0.2
-52.9% surprise
2025-11-06
$0.43
+10.4% surprise
2025-08-07
$0.38
-1.6% surprise

Financial Services Sector Comparison

Comparing RWAY against 525 companies in the Financial Services sector (96 bullish, 216 neutral, 213 bearish)
P/E Ratio
7.28
This Stock
vs
43.93
Sector Avg
-83.4% (Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
6.81%
This Stock
vs
0.14%
Sector Avg
+4671.3% (Excellent)
Profit Margin
24.79%
This Stock
vs
46.8%
Sector Avg
-47.0% (Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.93
This Stock
vs
1.41
Sector Avg
-34.3% (Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
-11.1%
This Stock
vs
40.4%
Sector Avg
-127.5% (Slower)
Current Ratio
1.19
This Stock
vs
3.36
Sector Avg
-64.7% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

CARLSON CAPITAL, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
Sell
2026-04-09
560,105 shares · $3,691,092
OCM GROWTH HOLDINGS, L.L.C.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
Sell
2025-11-17
1,250,000 shares · $11,312,500
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
BUY
7 analysts
B. Riley Securities
2026-03-17
Maintains
Buy Buy
Wells Fargo
2026-03-16
Maintains
Equal-Weight Equal-Weight
JP Morgan
2026-03-13
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
UBS
2025-11-19
Maintains
Buy Buy

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning RWAY from our newsroom.

Newest → oldest
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