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ULTA

NEUTRAL
$570.16 Live
Ulta Beauty, Inc. · NASDAQ
Target $676.21 (+18.6%)
$375.01 52W Range $714.97
Overview AI Snowflake Price Valuation Profitability Growth Health Statements Peers Insiders SEC Filings

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Apr 22, 2026
Market cap
$25.29B
P/E
22.32
ROE
43.6%
Profit margin
9.3%
Debt/Equity
0.78
Dividend yield
N/A

AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence
85%
Ulta Beauty presents a dichotomy between operational excellence and valuation extremes. While the Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates stable financial health, the stock is trading at a massive premium compared to its Graham Number ($190.99) and Intrinsic Value ($178.78). Despite strong revenue growth of 11.8%, the company is experiencing earnings contraction (-5.4% YoY), suggesting margin compression. The stellar ROE of 43.59% supports a premium, but the bearish technical trend and insider sentiment suggest a lack of immediate conviction at current price levels.

Key Strengths

Exceptional Return on Equity (ROE) of 43.59%
Strong revenue growth (11.8% YoY) indicating continued market demand
Dominant market position as the largest specialty beauty retailer in the U.S.
Robust historical track record of earnings beats over 25 quarters
Effective omnichannel strategy and loyalty program integration

Key Risks

Severe overvaluation relative to deterministic fair value models
Negative earnings growth (-5.4% YoY) despite rising revenues
Low Quick Ratio (0.35) indicating high reliance on inventory liquidity
Exposure to macroeconomic pressures on discretionary consumer spending
Bearish technical trend (0/100) and negative insider sentiment
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$215.5
-62.2% below current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
44
Moderate
Value
20
Future
55
Past
85
Health
60
Dividend
0
AI Verdict
Operational Powerhouse / Valuation Risk
Key drivers: High ROE, Earnings contraction, Extreme Price-to-Book ratio, Revenue growth
Confidence
90%
Value
20/100

Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number

Positives
  • Forward P/E (18.07) is lower than current P/E
Watchpoints
  • Price is ~3x the Graham Number
  • Price/Book of 8.98 is excessively high
  • PEG ratio of 2.10 suggests overvaluation relative to growth
Future
55/100

Ref Growth rates

Positives
  • Consistent revenue growth
  • International expansion (Space NK, Mexico, Middle East)
Watchpoints
  • Negative Q/Q and YoY earnings growth
  • Inflationary pressures on labor and shipping
Past
85/100

Ref Historical trends

Positives
  • Long-term 5Y price change of +76.1%
  • Consistent history of beating EPS estimates
Watchpoints
  • Recent trend of missing or barely hitting estimates (2/4 last 4 quarters)
Health
60/100

Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score

Positives
  • Manageable Debt/Equity (0.78)
  • Healthy Current Ratio (1.41)
Watchpoints
  • Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 is only marginally stable
  • Very low Quick Ratio (0.35)
Dividend
0/100

Ref Yield, Payout

Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
  • No dividend paid
  • 0% payout ratio

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$570.16
Analyst Target
$676.21
Upside/Downside
+18.6%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for ULTA and closest competitors.

Updated 2026-04-21
ULT
Ulta Beauty, Inc.
Primary
5Y
+76.1%
3Y
+5.3%
1Y
+55.9%
6M
+8.4%
1M
+10.5%
1W
+7.0%
TSC
Tractor Supply Company
Peer
5Y
+35.1%
3Y
-5.0%
1Y
-8.1%
6M
-18.2%
1M
-2.1%
1W
-1.4%
PSN
Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC
Peer
5Y
-44.9%
3Y
-44.9%
1Y
-44.9%
6M
-60.1%
1M
-22.5%
1W
-8.7%
EXP
Expedia Group, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+36.8%
3Y
+166.5%
1Y
+74.8%
6M
+12.0%
1M
-1.9%
1W
+4.0%
AS
Amer Sports, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+181.5%
3Y
+181.5%
1Y
+22.2%
6M
+0.2%
1M
-0.3%
1W
+1.9%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
22.32
Forward P/E
18.07
PEG Ratio
2.1
P/B Ratio
8.98
P/S Ratio
2.04
EV/Revenue
2.15
EV/EBITDA
14.52
Market Cap
$25.29B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 9.31%
Operating Margin 12.23%
Gross Margin 43.05%
ROE 43.59%
ROA 14.74%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth +11.8%
Earnings Growth -5.4%
Q/Q Revenue Growth +11.78%
Q/Q Earnings Growth -9.3%

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
0.78
Moderate
Current Ratio
1.41
Good
Quick Ratio
0.35
Poor
Cash/Share
$11.3

Financial Statement Flow

Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q1 2026

Revenue
$3.9B
Gross Margin
38.1%
Op. Margin
12.3%
Net Margin
9.1%
Total Assets
$7.0B
Liabilities
$4.2B
Equity
$2.8B
Debt/Equity
1.50x
Operating CF
$1.2B
CapEx
$-0.2B
Free Cash Flow
$1.0B
FCF Yield
84%

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-06-02
$N/A
2026-03-12
$8.01
-0.4% surprise
2025-12-04
$5.14
+11.5% surprise
2025-08-28
$5.78
+13.2% surprise

Consumer Cyclical Sector Comparison

Comparing ULTA against 295 companies in the Consumer Cyclical sector (17 bullish, 97 neutral, 181 bearish)
P/E Ratio
22.32
This Stock
vs
33.55
Sector Avg
-33.5% (Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
43.59%
This Stock
vs
-35.97%
Sector Avg
-221.2% (Below Avg)
Profit Margin
9.31%
This Stock
vs
-5.65%
Sector Avg
-264.9% (Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.78
This Stock
vs
1.37
Sector Avg
-43.0% (Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
11.8%
This Stock
vs
14.32%
Sector Avg
-17.6% (Slower)
Current Ratio
1.41
This Stock
vs
2.45
Sector Avg
-42.3% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

ULTA Ulta Beauty, Inc.
NEUTRAL
Mkt Cap
$25.3B
P/E
22.3
ROE
43.6%
Price
$570.16
TSCO Tractor Supply Company
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$23.6B
P/E
21.8
ROE
45.2%
Price
$44.81
 Compare with ULTA
PSNYW Polestar...
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$22.8B
P/E
-
ROE
-%
Price
$3.47
 Compare with ULTA
EXPE Expedia Group, Inc.
NEUTRAL
Mkt Cap
$29.0B
P/E
22.9
ROE
48.7%
Price
$236.9
 Compare with ULTA
AS Amer Sports, Inc.
NEUTRAL
Mkt Cap
$20.9B
P/E
66.2
ROE
6.6%
Price
$37.72
 Compare with ULTA

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

MRKONIC GEORGE R JR
Director
Sell
2026-04-07
452 shares · $243,759
CASARES RENE GABRIEL
Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-31
1,263 shares
STEELMAN KECIA
Chief Executive Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-31
10,889 shares
DELOREFICE CHRISTOPHER
Chief Financial Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-31
4,219 shares
RYAN ANITA JANE
Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-31
1,443 shares
LIALIOS CHRISTOPHER
Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-31
519 shares
STEELMAN KECIA
Chief Executive Officer
Stock Award
2026-02-12
3,416 shares
RYAN ANITA JANE
Officer
Stock Award
2026-02-12
644 shares
HALLIGAN CATHERINE ANN
Director
Gift
2025-12-15
340 shares
DELOREFICE CHRISTOPHER
Chief Financial Officer
Stock Award
2025-12-09
5,474 shares
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

SEC Filings

Recent regulatory filings from the SEC EDGAR database

10-K
10-K
2026-03-26

Ulta Beauty is the largest specialty beauty retailer in the U.S. and is expanding its international presence through Space NK and ventures in Mexico and the Middle East. The company faces material risks from macroeconomic pressures, including inflation, elevated interest rates, and rising labor and shipping costs. Additionally, global trade volatility and tariffs may adversely impact input costs and supply chain stability.

8-K
8-K
2026-03-12

Ulta Beauty likely reported its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results.

8-K
8-K
2025-12-18
10-Q
10-Q
2025-12-04

ULTA filed its 10-Q quarterly report on December 4, 2025. Due to the limited content provided in the excerpts, specific financial highlights and risk factors are not available for summary.

8-K
8-K
2025-12-04

Ulta Beauty, Inc. announced its third-quarter financial results.

8-K
FORM 8-K
2025-10-16

Ulta Beauty, Inc. filed an 8-K likely to announce its third-quarter financial results.

10-Q
10-Q
2025-08-28

ULTA filed its quarterly 10-Q report on August 28, 2025. Due to the limited content provided in the excerpts, specific financial highlights and detailed risk factors are unavailable for analysis.

8-K
8-K
2025-08-28

Ulta Beauty reported its second-quarter financial results.

8-K
8-K
2025-08-21

Ulta Beauty filed an 8-K to announce its second-quarter financial results.

8-K
FORM 8-K
2025-08-14

Ulta Beauty, Inc. filed an 8-K on August 14, 2025, likely to announce its second-quarter financial results.

8-K
8-K
2025-07-25
8-K
8-K
2025-06-30
8-K
8-K
2025-06-13
8-K
8-K
2025-05-29
10-Q
10-Q
2025-05-29
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR. AI summaries generated automatically.

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
BUY
24 analysts
Jefferies
2026-04-20
up
Hold Buy
DA Davidson
2026-04-14
Maintains
Buy Buy
Canaccord Genuity
2026-03-13
Maintains
Buy Buy
Oppenheimer
2026-03-13
Maintains
Outperform Outperform
JP Morgan
2026-03-13
Maintains
Overweight Overweight
Piper Sandler
2026-03-13
reit
Overweight Overweight
Morgan Stanley
2026-03-13
Maintains
Overweight Overweight
Wells Fargo
2026-03-13
Maintains
Underweight Underweight
TD Cowen
2026-03-13
Maintains
Buy Buy
Telsey Advisory Group
2026-03-13
Maintains
Outperform Outperform

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning ULTA from our newsroom.

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