TSCO
BEARISH
$44.81
Live
Tractor Supply Company · NASDAQ
Target $56.15
(+25.3%)
$43.23
52W Range
$63.99
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Apr 21, 2026
Market cap
$23.59B
P/E
21.75
ROE
45.2%
Profit margin
7.1%
Debt/Equity
2.3
Dividend yield
2.14%
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
85%
TSCO exhibits a stable deterministic health profile with a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, yet it is severely overvalued relative to its Graham Number ($15.07) and Intrinsic Value ($14.42). While the company maintains an exceptional ROE of 45.18%, this is offset by negative earnings growth (-2.20% YoY) and a dangerously low Quick Ratio of 0.09, indicating heavy reliance on inventory for liquidity. The combination of a 0/100 technical trend, aggressive insider selling ($11.96M), and a price trading at a massive premium to defensive fair value suggests significant downside risk.
Key Strengths
Exceptional Return on Equity (ROE) of 45.18%
Stable Piotroski F-Score (6/9) indicating consistent financial health
Strong gross margins (36.42%) reflecting pricing power in rural niche
Sustainable dividend payout ratio (44.66%)
Dominant market position as the largest rural lifestyle retailer in the U.S.
Key Risks
Severe overvaluation relative to Graham and Intrinsic value models
Negative earnings growth (-2.20% YoY and -3.80% Q/Q)
Critical liquidity risk evidenced by a Quick Ratio of 0.09
High leverage with a Debt/Equity ratio of 2.30
Strong bearish technical trend (0/100) and negative 6-month price action (-18.2%)
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$22.5
-49.8% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
47
Moderate
20
35
60
55
65
AI Verdict
Overvalued Growth Stall
Key drivers: Valuation gap vs Graham Number, Negative EPS growth, Poor liquidity (Quick Ratio), Bearish insider sentiment
Confidence
90%
Value
20/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Forward P/E (18.69) is lower than current P/E
Watchpoints
- Price ($44.81) is ~3x the Graham Number ($15.07)
- Price/Book ratio is extremely high at 9.15
- PEG ratio of 1.82 suggests overpayment for growth
Future
35/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Slight positive revenue growth (3.30%)
- Strategic expansion via Allivet acquisition
Watchpoints
- Negative YoY earnings growth (-2.20%)
- Recent Q/Q EPS growth decline of -12.2%
Past
60/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Strong historical ROE
- Consistent track record of meeting/beating estimates over 25 quarters
Watchpoints
- Poor 1-year (-8.1%) and 6-month (-18.2%) price performance
Health
55/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 (Stable)
Watchpoints
- Quick Ratio of 0.09 is a major red flag for immediate liquidity
- Debt/Equity of 2.30 is high for the sector
Dividend
65/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Sustainable payout ratio (44.66%)
- Consistent dividend rate
Watchpoints
- Modest yield (2.14%) compared to risk profile
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$44.81
Analyst Target
$56.15
Upside/Downside
+25.3%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for TSCO and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-04-20
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
TSCO
Tractor Supply Company
Primary
|
+35.1% | -5.0% | -8.1% | -18.2% | -2.1% | -1.4% |
|
PSNYW
Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC
Peer
|
-44.9% | -44.9% | -44.9% | -60.1% | -22.5% | -8.7% |
|
AS
Amer Sports, Inc.
Peer
|
+181.5% | +181.5% | +22.2% | +0.2% | -0.3% | +1.9% |
|
AMCR
Amcor plc
Peer
|
-0.8% | -14.4% | -6.9% | -9.1% | +7.2% | +8.2% |
|
BURL
Burlington Stores, Inc.
Peer
|
+18.0% | +32.7% | +2.1% | +6.6% | +3.4% | -2.7% |
TSC
Tractor Supply Company
Primary
5Y
+35.1%
3Y
-5.0%
1Y
-8.1%
6M
-18.2%
1M
-2.1%
1W
-1.4%
PSN
Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC
Peer
5Y
-44.9%
3Y
-44.9%
1Y
-44.9%
6M
-60.1%
1M
-22.5%
1W
-8.7%
AS
Amer Sports, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+181.5%
3Y
+181.5%
1Y
+22.2%
6M
+0.2%
1M
-0.3%
1W
+1.9%
AMC
Amcor plc
Peer
5Y
-0.8%
3Y
-14.4%
1Y
-6.9%
6M
-9.1%
1M
+7.2%
1W
+8.2%
BUR
Burlington Stores, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+18.0%
3Y
+32.7%
1Y
+2.1%
6M
+6.6%
1M
+3.4%
1W
-2.7%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
21.75
Forward P/E
18.69
PEG Ratio
1.82
P/B Ratio
9.15
P/S Ratio
1.52
EV/Revenue
1.89
EV/EBITDA
14.96
Market Cap
$23.59B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
7.06%
Operating Margin
7.64%
Gross Margin
36.42%
ROE
45.18%
ROA
8.84%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+3.3%
Earnings Growth
-2.2%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
+3.31%
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-3.8%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
2.3
High debt
Current Ratio
1.34
Good
Quick Ratio
0.09
Poor
Cash/Share
$0.37
Financial Statement Flow
Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025
Revenue
$3.9B
Gross Margin
35.1%
Op. Margin
7.6%
Net Margin
5.8%
Total Assets
$10.9B
Liabilities
$8.4B
Equity
$2.6B
Debt/Equity
3.24x
Operating CF
$0.3B
CapEx
$-0.3B
Free Cash Flow
$0.1B
FCF Yield
18%
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-04-21
$N/A
2026-01-29
$0.43
-7.2% surprise
2025-10-23
$0.49
+1.6% surprise
2025-07-24
$0.81
+1.0% surprise
Consumer Cyclical Sector Comparison
Comparing TSCO against 291 companies in the Consumer Cyclical sector
(17 bullish, 96 neutral, 178 bearish)
P/E Ratio
21.75
This Stock
vs
33.44
Sector Avg
-35.0%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
45.18%
This Stock
vs
-36.6%
Sector Avg
-223.5%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
7.06%
This Stock
vs
-5.76%
Sector Avg
-222.5%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
2.3
This Stock
vs
1.37
Sector Avg
+68.6%
(Higher)
Revenue Growth
3.3%
This Stock
vs
14.09%
Sector Avg
-76.6%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
1.34
This Stock
vs
2.46
Sector Avg
-45.3%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
TSCO
Tractor Supply Company
|
BEARISH | $23.59B | 21.75 | 45.2% | 7.1% | $44.81 | |
|
PSNYW
Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC
|
BEARISH | $22.77B | - | -% | -105.9% | $3.47 | Compare |
|
AS
Amer Sports, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $20.92B | 66.18 | 6.6% | 5.1% | $37.72 | Compare |
|
AMCR
Amcor plc
|
NEUTRAL | $20.44B | 28.38 | 7.5% | 3.3% | $44.28 | Compare |
|
BURL
Burlington Stores, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $18.75B | 34.25 | 41.9% | 5.0% | $297.96 | Compare |
TSCO
Tractor Supply Company
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$23.6B
P/E
21.8
ROE
45.2%
Price
$44.81
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | HAM MARGARET M | Director | Stock Award | 289 | $13,125 |
| 2026-04-01 | KRISHNAN RAMKUMAR | Director | Stock Award | 579 | $26,250 |
| 2026-02-13 | YANKEE COLIN | Officer | Sale | 11,170 | $618,263 |
| 2026-02-13 | YANKEE COLIN | Officer | Option Exercise | 11,170 | $520,191 |
| 2026-02-11 | MILLS ROBERT D. | Chief Technology Officer | Sale | 62,950 | $3,406,854 |
| 2026-02-11 | MILLS ROBERT D. | Chief Technology Officer | Option Exercise | 62,950 | $2,236,643 |
| 2026-02-11 | ESTEP JONATHAN S | Officer | Sale | 59,745 | $3,228,022 |
| 2026-02-11 | ESTEP JONATHAN S | Officer | Option Exercise | 59,745 | $1,711,097 |
| 2026-02-10 | SYNGAL SONIA | Director | Stock Award | 781 | - |
| 2026-02-10 | MILLS ROBERT D. | Chief Technology Officer | Stock Award | 7,235 | - |
| 2026-02-10 | LAWTON HARRY A III | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 46,547 | - |
| 2026-02-10 | BARTON KURT D. | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 10,611 | - |
| 2026-02-10 | BARTON KURT D. | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 1,884 | $101,378 |
| 2026-02-10 | ESTEP JONATHAN S | Officer | Stock Award | 7,235 | - |
| 2026-02-10 | ORDUS JOHN P | Officer | Stock Award | 6,270 | - |
HAM MARGARET M
Director
2026-04-01
289 shares
·
$13,125
KRISHNAN RAMKUMAR
Director
2026-04-01
579 shares
·
$26,250
YANKEE COLIN
Officer
2026-02-13
11,170 shares
·
$618,263
YANKEE COLIN
Officer
2026-02-13
11,170 shares
·
$520,191
MILLS ROBERT D.
Chief Technology Officer
2026-02-11
62,950 shares
·
$3,406,854
MILLS ROBERT D.
Chief Technology Officer
2026-02-11
62,950 shares
·
$2,236,643
ESTEP JONATHAN S
Officer
2026-02-11
59,745 shares
·
$3,228,022
ESTEP JONATHAN S
Officer
2026-02-11
59,745 shares
·
$1,711,097
SYNGAL SONIA
Director
2026-02-10
781 shares
MILLS ROBERT D.
Chief Technology Officer
2026-02-10
7,235 shares
LAWTON HARRY A III
Chief Executive Officer
2026-02-10
46,547 shares
BARTON KURT D.
Chief Financial Officer
2026-02-10
10,611 shares
BARTON KURT D.
Chief Financial Officer
2026-02-10
1,884 shares
·
$101,378
ESTEP JONATHAN S
Officer
2026-02-10
7,235 shares
ORDUS JOHN P
Officer
2026-02-10
6,270 shares
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
SEC Filings
Recent regulatory filings from the SEC EDGAR database
DEF 14A
10-K
Tractor Supply Company, the largest rural lifestyle retailer in the U.S., expanded its operations through the $135 million acquisition of online pet pharmacy Allivet on December 30, 2024. The company faces strategic risks related to competitive pressures and potential fluctuations or inability to increase comparable store sales at existing locations.
8-K
8-K
10-Q
8-K
8-K
10-Q
8-K
8-K
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR. AI summaries generated automatically.
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
27 analysts
Baird
2026-04-17
Outperform
Outperform
DA Davidson
2026-04-16
Buy
Buy
Wells Fargo
2026-04-14
Overweight
Overweight
Citigroup
2026-04-07
Buy
Buy
Evercore ISI Group
2026-04-07
Outperform
Outperform
Argus Research
2026-02-02
Buy
Buy
Jefferies
2026-01-30
Buy
Buy
JP Morgan
2026-01-30
Neutral
Neutral
DA Davidson
2026-01-30
Buy
Buy
TD Cowen
2026-01-30
Hold
Hold
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning TSCO from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.