AMCR Amcor plc - Fundamental Analysis
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AMCR Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Consumer Cyclical
Packaging & Containers
Current Price
Live
$44.28
Analyst Target
$55.01
+24.2%
Upside
52W High
$52.25
52W Low
$38.35
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$20.44B
P/E
28.38
ROE
7.5%
Profit margin
3.3%
Debt/Equity
1.35
Dividend yield
6.08%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
72%
Analysis Accuracy
AMCR's deterministic health score is stable with a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, indicating moderate financial strength, though the absence of an Altman Z-Score limits distress risk assessment. The stock trades at a significant premium to its Graham Number ($29.87) and intrinsic value ($10.92), supported by a high forward P/E of 9.96 despite a trailing P/E of 28.38, suggesting optimism around earnings recovery. While revenue growth is robust (71.3% YoY), earnings growth is negative (-14.4% YoY), and the dividend payout ratio is dangerously high at 169.44%, raising sustainability concerns. Analysts are strongly bullish with a $55.01 target price, but weak recent earnings beats (1 of last 4) and bearish technicals (0/100) create conflicting signals.
Key Strengths
Strong revenue growth of 71.3% YoY, significantly outpacing sector average of 6.78%
Attractive forward P/E of 9.96, implying strong earnings recovery expectations
Dividend yield of 6.08% is well above market average and appealing in current rate environment
Analyst recommendation is strong_buy with a $55.01 average target, implying ~24% upside
Piotroski F-Score of 6 indicates stable financial health with solid operational performance
Key Risks
Extremely high payout ratio of 169.44% threatens dividend sustainability and signals earnings pressure
Negative earnings growth of -14.4% YoY despite strong revenue growth, indicating margin or cost issues
Technical trend score of 0/100 suggests strong bearish momentum in price action
Current price of $44.28 is 48% above Graham Number ($29.87), indicating significant overvaluation on defensive metrics
Weak insider sentiment (40/100) and low dividend strength (40/100) signal lack of internal confidence
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$35.5
-19.8% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
55
Moderate
42
70
58
65
38
AI Verdict
Neutral with upside potential if earnings recovery materializes
Key drivers: High forward growth expectations, Strong revenue momentum, Elevated valuation and dividend risk, Mixed earnings surprise record, Stable Piotroski score
Confidence
75%
Value
42/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Forward P/E of 9.96 is reasonable for a recovery story
Watchpoints
- Trailing P/E of 28.38 is high for a low-growth earnings profile
- Price/Sales of 1.17 is modest but not compelling
- Current price trades at 48% premium to Graham Number
Future
70/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Exceptional YoY revenue growth of 71.3%
- Q/Q earnings growth of 37.2% indicates recent improvement
- Forward P/E implies strong earnings rebound
Watchpoints
- Earnings growth YoY is negative at -14.4%
- PEG Ratio unavailable, limiting growth-adjusted valuation
Past
58/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Consistent history of positive earnings surprises over 25 quarters
- Only 4 negative surprises in last 25 quarters
Watchpoints
- Only 1 earnings beat in last 4 quarters
- Average surprise in last 4 quarters is -1.2%
- 1Y, 3Y, and 5Y price returns are negative
Health
65/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Piotroski F-Score of 6 indicates stable financial condition
- Debt/Equity of 1.35 is below sector average of 1.60
Watchpoints
- Quick ratio of 0.52 indicates liquidity risk
- Current ratio of 1.04 is barely above 1, signaling tight working capital
- Altman Z-Score not available, limiting distress risk analysis
Dividend
38/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- High dividend yield of 6.08% is attractive
Watchpoints
- Payout ratio of 169.44% is unsustainable long-term
- Dividend strength score of 40/100 indicates structural risk
- No 5-year average yield for trend context
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$44.28
Analyst Target
$55.01
Upside/Downside
+24.2%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for AMCR and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-23
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AMCR
Amcor plc
Primary
|
-0.8% | -14.4% | -6.9% | -9.1% | +7.2% | +8.2% |
|
RIVN
Rivian Automotive, Inc.
Peer
|
-83.5% | -1.5% | +15.4% | +21.7% | -5.5% | -13.3% |
|
AS
Amer Sports, Inc.
Peer
|
+181.5% | +181.5% | +22.2% | +0.2% | -0.3% | +1.9% |
|
XPEV
XPeng Inc.
Peer
|
-61.6% | +120.6% | +48.9% | +12.8% | +14.2% | +3.1% |
|
BURL
Burlington Stores, Inc.
Peer
|
+18.0% | +32.7% | +2.1% | +6.6% | +3.4% | -2.7% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
28.38
Forward P/E
9.96
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
1.74
P/S Ratio
1.17
EV/Revenue
2.03
EV/EBITDA
14.19
Market Cap
$20.44B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
3.35%
Operating Margin
9.71%
Gross Margin
18.96%
ROE
7.47%
ROA
3.59%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+71.3%
Earnings Growth
-14.4%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+37.2%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
1.35
Moderate
Current Ratio
1.04
Good
Quick Ratio
0.52
Poor
Cash/Share
$1.79
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-03
$N/A
2025-11-05
$0.97
+4.9% surprise
2025-08-14
$1.0
-7.2% surprise
2025-04-30
$0.9
-1.3% surprise
Consumer Cyclical Sector Comparison
Comparing AMCR against 94 companies in the Consumer Cyclical sector
(5 bullish, 49 neutral, 40 bearish)
P/E Ratio
28.38
This Stock
vs
42.97
Sector Avg
-33.9%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
7.47%
This Stock
vs
6.02%
Sector Avg
+24.0%
(Excellent)
Profit Margin
3.35%
This Stock
vs
0.78%
Sector Avg
+329.0%
(Superior)
Debt to Equity
1.35
This Stock
vs
1.65
Sector Avg
-18.3%
(Lower)
Revenue Growth
71.3%
This Stock
vs
7.65%
Sector Avg
+832.5%
(Fast Growth)
Current Ratio
1.04
This Stock
vs
1.88
Sector Avg
-44.6%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AMCR
Amcor plc
|
NEUTRAL | $20.44B | 28.38 | 7.5% | 3.3% | $44.28 | |
|
RIVN
Rivian Automotive, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $20.44B | - | -64.9% | -61.3% | $16.67 | |
|
AS
Amer Sports, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $20.92B | 66.18 | 6.6% | 5.1% | $37.72 | |
|
XPEV
XPeng Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $19.7B | - | -9.2% | -4.0% | $20.65 | |
|
BURL
Burlington Stores, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $18.75B | 34.25 | 41.9% | 5.0% | $297.96 |
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
STRONG_BUY
11 analysts
Wells Fargo
2026-01-20
Overweight
Overweight
Baird
2026-01-07
Neutral
Outperform
Truist Securities
2026-01-06
Buy
Buy
Wells Fargo
2025-10-15
Overweight
Overweight
Baird
2025-08-15
Neutral
Neutral
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning AMCR from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.