ACEL Accel Entertainment, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
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ACEL Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Consumer Cyclical
Gambling
Current Price
Live
$11.29
Analyst Target
$15.17
+34.3%
Upside
52W High
$13.28
52W Low
$9.02
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$951.68M
P/E
23.04
ROE
18.2%
Profit margin
3.3%
Debt/Equity
2.22
Dividend yield
N/A
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
68%
Analysis Accuracy
ACEL's deterministic health score is concerning with a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, indicating marginal financial stability. While the company shows strong earnings growth and beats earnings estimates consistently, high leverage (Debt/Equity: 2.22) and weak insider sentiment counterbalance these positives. Valuation is mixed—trading below analyst target of $15.17 but above the conservative Graham Number of $5.93. The stock faces headwinds from recent price underperformance and insider selling, despite solid ROE and revenue momentum.
Key Strengths
Strong earnings growth: YoY EPS growth of 13.6% and 167.3% earnings growth (YoY) reflect operational improvement.
Consistent earnings beat record: 3 out of last 4 quarters beat estimates, with an average surprise of 17.29%.
High return on equity: ROE of 18.23% exceeds sector average of 6.36%, signaling efficient equity utilization.
Solid liquidity position: Current ratio of 2.57 and quick ratio of 2.38 indicate strong short-term financial health.
Attractive valuation relative to peers: P/E of 23.04 is below sector average of 58.47 despite superior profitability.
Key Risks
Weak Piotroski F-Score: 4/9 suggests suboptimal financial health, particularly in profitability and leverage trends.
High debt burden: Debt/Equity ratio of 2.22 exceeds sector average (1.60) and increases financial risk.
Bearish insider activity: 9 sell transactions totaling $2.33M in the last 6 months signal lack of confidence from insiders.
Declining near-term momentum: 6M price return of -11.4% and bearish technical trend (0/100) indicate weak sentiment.
Missing Altman Z-Score: Inability to assess bankruptcy risk due to missing Z-Score is a critical data gap.
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$14.0
+24.0% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
54
Moderate
65
75
60
50
20
AI Verdict
Cautiously optimistic with structural risks
Key drivers: Strong earnings growth and beat rate, High ROE and improving margins, Elevated leverage and weak Piotroski score, Bearish insider activity, Valuation discount to analyst target
Confidence
70%
Value
65/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- P/E of 23.04 is below sector average of 58.47
- Price/Sales of 0.73 suggests revenue-based undervaluation
- Trading below analyst target price of $15.17
Watchpoints
- Current price ($11.29) is nearly double the Graham Number ($5.93), indicating overvaluation on defensive criteria
- Forward P/E of 12.93 not fully reflective of current risk profile
Future
75/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- YoY earnings growth of 167.30% and revenue growth of 9.10% signal strong momentum
- Q/Q earnings growth of 173.00% indicates accelerating profitability
Watchpoints
- Most recent Q/Q EPS growth is -3.8%, suggesting a potential near-term slowdown
- PEG Ratio unavailable limits growth-adjusted valuation analysis
Past
60/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Long history of earnings beat streak, especially strong in 2023–2024
- 1Y revenue growth of 9.10% outpaces sector average of 6.63%
Watchpoints
- 1Y price return of -0.2% and 6M return of -11.4% show weak price realization
- Mixed historical EPS surprises including several negative quarters in 2022
Health
50/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Current and quick ratios above 2.3 indicate strong liquidity
- ROA of 6.48% is healthy for the sector
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health
- Debt/Equity of 2.22 is high and above sector average
- Altman Z-Score missing, preventing distress risk assessment
Dividend
20/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
- Dividend Strength: 0/100
- No dividend yield or payout history
- Payout ratio is 0.00%, indicating no return to shareholders
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$11.29
Analyst Target
$15.17
Upside/Downside
+34.3%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for ACEL and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-23
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ACEL
Accel Entertainment, Inc.
Primary
|
+13.1% | +27.0% | -0.2% | -11.4% | -1.7% | -2.2% |
|
AXL
American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.
Peer
|
-9.1% | -0.5% | +44.8% | +68.0% | +28.6% | +7.5% |
|
AMWD
American Woodmark Corporation
Peer
|
-29.5% | +16.0% | -12.9% | +11.6% | +22.4% | +13.7% |
|
BBW
Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc.
Peer
|
+1447.6% | +196.4% | +52.8% | +24.3% | +6.1% | -10.3% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
23.04
Forward P/E
12.93
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
3.54
P/S Ratio
0.73
EV/Revenue
0.96
EV/EBITDA
7.04
Market Cap
$951.68M
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
3.34%
Operating Margin
7.69%
Gross Margin
31.03%
ROE
18.23%
ROA
6.48%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+9.1%
Earnings Growth
+167.3%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+173.0%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
2.22
High debt
Current Ratio
2.57
Strong
Quick Ratio
2.38
Excellent
Cash/Share
$3.51
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-26
$N/A
2025-11-04
$0.25
+18.9% surprise
2025-08-05
$0.26
+15.2% surprise
2025-05-05
$0.23
+17.8% surprise
Consumer Cyclical Sector Comparison
Comparing ACEL against 94 companies in the Consumer Cyclical sector
(6 bullish, 49 neutral, 39 bearish)
P/E Ratio
23.04
This Stock
vs
42.9
Sector Avg
-46.3%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
18.23%
This Stock
vs
6.28%
Sector Avg
+190.5%
(Excellent)
Profit Margin
3.34%
This Stock
vs
0.87%
Sector Avg
+283.4%
(Superior)
Debt to Equity
2.22
This Stock
vs
1.65
Sector Avg
+34.6%
(Higher)
Revenue Growth
9.1%
This Stock
vs
7.63%
Sector Avg
+19.3%
(Growing)
Current Ratio
2.57
This Stock
vs
1.86
Sector Avg
+37.9%
(Stronger)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ACEL
Accel Entertainment, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $951.68M | 23.04 | 18.2% | 3.3% | $11.29 | |
|
BJRI
BJ's Restaurants, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $974.13M | 32.38 | 8.4% | 2.2% | $44.03 | |
|
AXL
American Axle &...
|
NEUTRAL | $982.81M | 23.66 | 6.3% | 0.7% | $8.28 | |
|
AMWD
American Woodmark Corporation
|
BEARISH | $984.0M | 15.35 | 6.8% | 3.9% | $67.54 | |
|
BBW
Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $831.54M | 14.7 | 41.2% | 10.9% | $63.35 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-15 | RUTTENBERG DAVID W | Director | Sale | 25,000 | $289,442 |
| 2025-12-24 | HARMER DEREK | Officer | Sale | 10,000 | $115,000 |
| 2025-12-15 | RUBENSTEIN ANDREW H | Chief Executive Officer | Gift | 13,200 | - |
| 2025-12-15 | RUTTENBERG DAVID W | Director | Sale | 25,000 | $279,868 |
| 2025-12-15 | HARMER DEREK | Officer | Sale | 10,000 | $111,100 |
| 2025-12-15 | KOZLIK CHRISTEN | Officer | Stock Award | 1,875 | - |
| 2025-12-12 | PHELAN MARK T | Officer | Stock Award | 1,784 | - |
| 2025-12-12 | HARMER DEREK | Officer | Stock Award | 1,847 | - |
| 2025-12-12 | RUBENSTEIN ANDREW H | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 6,957 | - |
| 2025-12-11 | RUTTENBERG DAVID W | Director | Sale | 25,000 | $275,155 |
| 2025-12-01 | RUBENSTEIN ANDREW H | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 45,000 | $464,103 |
| 2025-09-16 | RUBENSTEIN ANDREW H | Chief Executive Officer | Gift | 3,250 | - |
| 2025-09-15 | RUTTENBERG DAVID W | Director | Sale | 25,000 | $277,660 |
| 2025-09-15 | KOZLIK CHRISTEN | Officer | Stock Award | 1,875 | - |
| 2025-09-12 | PHELAN MARK T | Officer | Stock Award | 1,784 | - |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
STRONG_BUY
6 analysts
CBRE
2026-01-16
Buy
Truist Securities
2025-12-16
Hold
Citizens
2025-12-05
Market Outperform
Macquarie
2025-11-05
Outperform
Outperform
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning ACEL from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.