AES The AES Corporation - Fundamental Analysis
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AES Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Utilities
Utilities - Diversified
Current Price
Live
$14.25
Analyst Target
$15.21
+6.7%
Upside
52W High
$15.51
52W Low
$9.46
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$10.15B
P/E
9.63
ROE
5.1%
Profit margin
8.7%
Debt/Equity
3.03
Dividend yield
4.82%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
65%
Analysis Accuracy
The AES Corporation exhibits a weak financial health profile with a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, indicating borderline stability, and lacks an Altman Z-Score to confirm safety from distress. While the stock appears undervalued based on a low P/E of 9.63 and forward P/E of 6.16 relative to sector peers, and trades near its Graham Number of $13.44, high leverage (Debt/Equity: 3.03) and weak liquidity (Current Ratio: 0.72) raise concerns. Strong recent earnings growth (YoY +25.3%, Q/Q +26.8%) and a solid dividend yield of 4.82% provide support, but inconsistent quarterly earnings beats (1 of last 4) and bearish technical trend (10/100) limit upside conviction. Analysts recommend a 'buy' with a target of $15.21, implying modest upside, aligning with a neutral stance.
Key Strengths
Attractive valuation with P/E (9.63) and forward P/E (6.16) well below sector average (20.74)
Dividend yield of 4.82% is high and supported by a sustainable payout ratio of 46.08%
Recent earnings growth is strong: 25.3% YoY and 26.8% Q/Q
Trading near Graham Number ($13.44) with current price at $14.25, suggesting limited downside
Analyst consensus is 'buy' with 12 analysts supporting upside to $15.21
Key Risks
Weak Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates fragile financial health and operational instability
Very high Debt/Equity ratio of 3.03, significantly above sector average of 1.73, increasing financial risk
Poor liquidity with Current Ratio (0.72) and Quick Ratio (0.38) below 1.0, indicating short-term solvency concerns
Technical trend score of 10/100 signals strong bearish momentum despite recent price recovery
Only 1 of the last 4 quarters beat earnings estimates, showing inconsistent execution
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$14.5
+1.8% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
63
Strong
82
70
52
38
75
AI Verdict
Neutral with value appeal offset by financial risk
Key drivers: Low valuation multiples, High dividend yield, Strong recent earnings growth, Weak financial health metrics, Bearish insider and technical signals
Confidence
70%
Value
82/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- P/E of 9.63 is significantly below sector average of 20.74
- Forward P/E of 6.16 suggests strong earnings expectations
- Price/Sales of 0.84 indicates undervaluation relative to revenue
Watchpoints
No urgent risks highlighted.
Future
70/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Earnings growth of 25.3% YoY and 26.8% Q/Q is robust
- Q/Q EPS growth of +47.1% in most recent quarter shows acceleration
Watchpoints
- Revenue growth is weak at only 1.90% YoY
- PEG Ratio is unavailable, limiting growth-adjusted valuation insight
Past
52/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Historical EPS surprises show occasional strong beats (e.g., +56.5%, +46.5%)
- Long-term dividend history supports income stability
Watchpoints
- Only 1 of last 4 quarters beat estimates
- 5Y price return of -34.7% underperforms sector and market
Health
38/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Operating margin of 20.50% is healthy
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health
- Debt/Equity of 3.03 is very high
- Current Ratio (0.72) and Quick Ratio (0.38) signal liquidity risk
- Altman Z-Score is missing, creating uncertainty about bankruptcy risk
Dividend
75/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Dividend yield of 4.82% is attractive
- Payout ratio of 46.08% is sustainable
- Dividend Strength score of 70/100 indicates reliable payments
Watchpoints
No urgent risks highlighted.
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$14.25
Analyst Target
$15.21
Upside/Downside
+6.7%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for AES and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-23
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AES
The AES Corporation
Primary
|
-34.7% | -39.8% | +31.2% | +6.0% | +2.1% | +0.4% |
|
BEPC
Brookfield Renewable Corporation
Peer
|
-15.8% | +45.0% | +66.9% | +11.4% | +1.7% | +0.8% |
|
BIPC
Brookfield Infrastructure Corporation
Peer
|
+23.0% | +12.8% | +12.4% | +11.4% | -2.0% | -0.1% |
|
BKH
Black Hills Corporation
Peer
|
+43.4% | +15.9% | +30.7% | +29.1% | +3.2% | -2.3% |
|
AQN
Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp.
Peer
|
-53.0% | +1.0% | +47.5% | +6.3% | +2.4% | -1.4% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
9.63
Forward P/E
6.16
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
2.63
P/S Ratio
0.84
EV/Revenue
3.88
EV/EBITDA
14.64
Market Cap
$10.15B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
8.74%
Operating Margin
20.5%
Gross Margin
17.27%
ROE
5.11%
ROA
2.27%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+1.9%
Earnings Growth
+25.3%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+26.8%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
3.03
High debt
Current Ratio
0.72
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.38
Poor
Cash/Share
$2.47
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-26
$N/A
2025-11-04
$0.75
-2.1% surprise
2025-07-31
$0.51
+29.0% surprise
2025-05-01
$0.27
-17.8% surprise
Utilities Sector Comparison
Comparing AES against 21 companies in the Utilities sector
(0 bullish, 18 neutral, 3 bearish)
P/E Ratio
9.63
This Stock
vs
24.29
Sector Avg
-60.4%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
5.11%
This Stock
vs
-7.2%
Sector Avg
-171.0%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
8.74%
This Stock
vs
10.62%
Sector Avg
-17.7%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
3.03
This Stock
vs
1.76
Sector Avg
+72.0%
(Higher)
Revenue Growth
1.9%
This Stock
vs
6.94%
Sector Avg
-72.6%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
0.72
This Stock
vs
0.88
Sector Avg
-17.6%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AES
The AES Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $10.15B | 9.63 | 5.1% | 8.7% | $14.25 | |
|
BEPC
Brookfield Renewable Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $7.15B | - | -5.9% | -22.9% | $39.79 | |
|
BIPC
Brookfield Infrastructure...
|
BEARISH | $5.45B | - | 34.8% | -4.3% | $45.55 | |
|
BKH
Black Hills Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $5.41B | 18.1 | 7.9% | 12.5% | $71.68 | |
|
AQN
Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp.
|
NEUTRAL | $4.9B | 91.14 | 0.1% | -1.1% | $6.38 |
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
12 analysts
Argus Research
2025-12-05
Hold
Buy
Jefferies
2025-11-18
Underperform
Hold
Mizuho
2025-11-06
Outperform
Outperform
Morgan Stanley
2025-10-22
Overweight
Overweight
Barclays
2025-10-21
Overweight
Overweight
Susquehanna
2025-10-13
Positive
Positive
Evercore ISI Group
2025-10-07
In-Line
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning AES from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.