AL Air Lease Corporation - Fundamental Analysis
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AL Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Industrials
Rental & Leasing Services
Current Price
Live
$64.42
Analyst Target
$65.0
+0.9%
Upside
52W High
$64.47
52W Low
$38.25
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$7.2B
P/E
7.47
ROE
12.7%
Profit margin
35.1%
Debt/Equity
2.42
Dividend yield
1.37%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
65%
Analysis Accuracy
Air Lease Corporation exhibits mixed financial health with a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicating stable but not strong fundamentals, and no available Altman Z-Score limits distress risk assessment. The company shows strong profitability metrics including a 49.84% operating margin and 35.09% profit margin, well above sector averages, while trading at a low P/E of 7.47 versus the sector average of 49.90, suggesting potential undervaluation. However, bearish insider activity, a weak current ratio of 0.80, and high debt/equity of 2.42 raise concerns about liquidity and leverage. Despite robust historical earnings surprises and solid ROE, technical trend and insider selling pressure weigh on near-term outlook.
Key Strengths
Exceptionally high operating margin (49.84%) and profit margin (35.09%), significantly above sector average of 82.53% profit margin (note: likely data anomaly; AL's margins are strong in context)
Low P/E ratio of 7.47 compared to sector average of 49.90, indicating potential undervaluation
Strong track record of earnings beats: 3 out of last 4 quarters beaten with an average surprise of 45.32%
High ROE of 12.74%, above sector average of 8.23%
Low dividend payout ratio of 10.21%, indicating sustainable dividend policy
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates only stable financial health, not strong, with red flags in liquidity and leverage
Debt/Equity ratio of 2.42 is high, exceeding sector average of 1.53, increasing financial risk
Current Ratio of 0.80 and Quick Ratio of 0.67 indicate potential short-term liquidity issues
Insider trading shows strong bearish signal: $47.99M in sell transactions and zero buys in last 6 months
Technical trend score of 10/100 suggests weak price momentum near 52-week high with minimal recent appreciation
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$120.31
+86.8% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
61
Strong
85
50
75
40
55
AI Verdict
Neutral with value appeal but structural risks
Key drivers: Low valuation multiples, High insider selling, Solid earnings beat history, Weak liquidity position, Leveraged balance sheet
Confidence
70%
Value
85/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- P/E of 7.47 well below sector average
- Price/Book of 0.86 suggests asset discount
- Graham Number ($120.31) implies significant undervaluation
Watchpoints
- Intrinsic Value ($254.29) not supported by current growth or PEG data
- EV/EBITDA and other key EV metrics unavailable
Future
50/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Earnings Growth (YoY) of 47.60% is strong
- Q/Q Earnings Growth of 40.90% indicates recent acceleration
Watchpoints
- Year-over-Year EPS Growth is -3.2%, conflicting with reported earnings growth
- Revenue Growth (YoY) of 5.10% is below sector average of 16.48%
- PEG Ratio unavailable limits growth-adjusted valuation
Past
75/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Consistent earnings beat streak: 3 of last 4 quarters
- Average earnings surprise of 45.32% over last 4 quarters
- Long-term price performance strong: +64.5% over 5 years
Watchpoints
- Most recent Q/Q EPS growth only +11.0%, down from prior highs
- One earnings miss in last 4 quarters
Health
40/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- ROE of 12.74% is healthy
- No Altman Z-Score provided, but no immediate distress signal
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health
- Debt/Equity of 2.42 is high
- Current and Quick Ratios below 1.0 signal liquidity risk
Dividend
55/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Low payout ratio of 10.21% ensures sustainability
- Dividend has room to grow
Watchpoints
- Dividend Strength score of 25/100 indicates weak yield and history
- Dividend Yield of 1.37% is below market average
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$64.42
Analyst Target
$65.0
Upside/Downside
+0.9%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for AL and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-23
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AL
Air Lease Corporation
Primary
|
+64.5% | +54.2% | +38.3% | +11.7% | +0.3% | +0.2% |
|
AAON
AAON, Inc.
Peer
|
+72.1% | +40.5% | +7.6% | +2.2% | -18.3% | -5.0% |
|
AAL
American Airlines Group Inc.
Peer
|
-59.1% | -29.7% | -3.5% | -20.2% | -28.2% | -7.9% |
|
ADT
ADT Inc.
Peer
|
+1.2% | +0.3% | +11.5% | -3.6% | -0.6% | -2.7% |
|
AWI
Armstrong World Industries, Inc.
Peer
|
+142.3% | +157.4% | +25.5% | +11.5% | -2.1% | -4.5% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
7.47
Forward P/E
8.76
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
0.86
P/S Ratio
2.48
EV/Revenue
9.26
EV/EBITDA
N/A
Market Cap
$7.2B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
35.09%
Operating Margin
49.84%
Gross Margin
58.44%
ROE
12.74%
ROA
2.78%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+5.1%
Earnings Growth
+47.6%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+40.9%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
2.42
High debt
Current Ratio
0.8
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.67
Poor
Cash/Share
$4.05
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-12
$N/A
2025-11-03
$1.21
+11.2% surprise
2025-08-04
$1.09
+28.6% surprise
2025-05-05
$3.26
+96.2% surprise
Industrials Sector Comparison
Comparing AL against 122 companies in the Industrials sector
(6 bullish, 59 neutral, 57 bearish)
P/E Ratio
7.47
This Stock
vs
73.49
Sector Avg
-89.8%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
12.74%
This Stock
vs
7.83%
Sector Avg
+62.7%
(Excellent)
Profit Margin
35.09%
This Stock
vs
57.85%
Sector Avg
-39.4%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
2.42
This Stock
vs
5.46
Sector Avg
-55.7%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
5.1%
This Stock
vs
22.8%
Sector Avg
-77.6%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
0.8
This Stock
vs
2.64
Sector Avg
-69.8%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AL
Air Lease Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $7.2B | 7.47 | 12.7% | 35.1% | $64.42 | |
|
AAON
AAON, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $6.85B | 65.04 | 12.5% | 7.5% | $83.9 | |
|
AAL
American Airlines Group Inc.
|
BEARISH | $6.8B | 60.59 | -% | 0.2% | $10.3 | |
|
ADT
ADT Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $6.59B | 11.31 | 17.2% | 12.5% | $8.03 | |
|
AWI
Armstrong World Industries, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $8.1B | 27.1 | 38.0% | 19.1% | $187.28 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | POERSCHKE JOHN D | Officer | Stock Award | 22,044 | - |
| 2025-12-31 | KORDE KISHORE | Officer | Stock Award | 29,319 | - |
| 2025-12-31 | BEKER DAVID | Officer | Stock Award | 49,157 | - |
| 2025-12-31 | PLUEGER JOHN L | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 314,980 | - |
| 2025-12-31 | FORSYTE CAROL HYLAND | General Counsel | Stock Award | 29,257 | - |
| 2025-12-31 | KHATIBI ALEX A | Officer | Stock Award | 28,950 | - |
| 2025-12-31 | WILLIS GREGORY B | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 29,061 | - |
| 2025-12-16 | UDVAR-HAZY STEVEN F | Director | Gift | 105,000 | - |
| 2025-12-15 | UDVAR-HAZY STEVEN F | Director | Sale | 149,632 | $9,588,527 |
| 2025-12-15 | LEVY GRANT ALLAN | Officer | Sale | 1,000 | $64,300 |
| 2025-12-15 | KORDE KISHORE | Officer | Sale | 29,172 | $1,869,925 |
| 2025-12-11 | UDVAR-HAZY STEVEN F | Director | Sale | 122,300 | $7,823,632 |
| 2025-12-09 | UDVAR-HAZY STEVEN F | Director | Sale | 173,533 | $11,105,952 |
| 2025-12-09 | PLUEGER JOHN L | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 155,821 | $9,976,985 |
| 2025-12-08 | UDVAR-HAZY STEVEN F | Director | Gift | 3,000 | - |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
HOLD
3 analysts
Barclays
2026-01-06
Overweight
Equal-Weight
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning AL from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.