AR Antero Resources Corporation - Fundamental Analysis
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AR Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Energy
Oil & Gas E&P
Current Price
Live
$34.29
Analyst Target
$43.3
+26.3%
Upside
52W High
$44.02
52W Low
$29.1
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$10.58B
P/E
18.14
ROE
8.6%
Profit margin
11.8%
Debt/Equity
0.47
Dividend yield
N/A
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
65%
Analysis Accuracy
The Advanced Deterministic Scorecard reveals a mixed financial profile: the Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates borderline stable health, while the absence of an Altman Z-Score prevents a clear distress risk assessment. The stock trades above the Graham Number ($31.83) at $34.29, suggesting a slight premium, though below the analyst target of $43.30. Solid revenue growth (13.4% YoY) and strong gross margins (67.0%) are offset by weak earnings consistency, deteriorating recent EPS trends, and poor liquidity metrics. Analysts recommend a 'buy', but insider sentiment is neutral with no recent transactions.
Key Strengths
Revenue growth of 13.4% YoY outpaces sector average (0.11%)
Exceptionally high gross margin of 67.0%, indicating strong cost control or pricing power
Low Debt/Equity ratio of 0.47, below sector average of 0.60
Current price ($34.29) below analyst target price ($43.30), implying upside potential
Strong 5-year price appreciation of +399.9%, reflecting long-term investor confidence
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health with risk of deterioration
Current Ratio (0.31) and Quick Ratio (0.28) are critically low, signaling severe short-term liquidity risk
Earnings volatility: last four quarters missed estimates by an average of -21.6%, including a -54.3% Q/Q EPS drop
No Altman Z-Score available, creating uncertainty around bankruptcy risk
Technical Trend score of 0/100 indicates a strongly bearish near-term price momentum
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$31.83
-7.2% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
45
Moderate
55
50
48
42
30
AI Verdict
Neutral with upside potential if execution improves
Key drivers: Above-average revenue growth and gross margin, Low leverage but poor liquidity, Mixed earnings track record with recent misses, Valuation near Graham threshold but below analyst targets, Bearish technicals offset fundamental strengths
Confidence
70%
Value
55/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Price/Book (1.44) and Price/Sales (2.11) are reasonable for Energy sector
- Forward P/E of 10.67 is below current P/E (18.14), suggesting earnings improvement expected
Watchpoints
- Current price ($34.29) exceeds Graham Number ($31.83), indicating slight overvaluation on defensive criteria
- No PEG ratio due to unreliable earnings growth data
Future
50/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Revenue growth (13.4% YoY) is strong for the sector
- Forward P/E implies improving earnings outlook
Watchpoints
- No YoY earnings growth data available
- Recent Q/Q EPS growth down -54.3%
- Last 4 quarters missed earnings estimates by double digits on average
Past
48/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Long-term 5Y price return of +399.9% shows strong investor returns
- Historical ROE (8.58%) near sector average (9.07%)
Watchpoints
- Erratic earnings surprises: 0/4 beats in last 4 quarters
- Negative earnings in multiple quarters (e.g., Q4 2024, Q3 2024)
- High volatility in EPS, from +167% beats to -652% misses
Health
42/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Debt/Equity (0.47) is conservative
- Piotroski F-Score of 4 is in 'stable' range, not weak
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 is below strong threshold (7+)
- Current and Quick Ratios (0.31, 0.28) are dangerously low
- No Altman Z-Score available, increasing uncertainty
Dividend
30/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Payout ratio of 0% allows capital retention
Watchpoints
- No dividend yield or rate disclosed
- Dividend Strength score of 0/100 indicates no meaningful shareholder returns
- No history of consistent payouts
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$34.29
Analyst Target
$43.3
Upside/Downside
+26.3%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for AR and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-23
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AR
Antero Resources Corporation
Primary
|
+399.9% | +14.2% | -15.4% | +5.4% | +0.3% | +6.0% |
|
APA
APA Corporation
Peer
|
+84.3% | +10.9% | +90.4% | +54.1% | +22.0% | +5.5% |
|
AM
Antero Midstream Corporation
Peer
|
+228.5% | +103.9% | +19.4% | +11.2% | +4.9% | +2.5% |
|
AROC
Archrock, Inc.
Peer
|
+281.4% | +240.6% | -2.8% | +21.6% | +8.0% | +5.2% |
|
BTU
Peabody Energy Corporation
Peer
|
+1129.6% | +41.6% | +99.3% | +128.8% | +23.3% | +4.4% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
18.14
Forward P/E
10.67
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
1.44
P/S Ratio
2.11
EV/Revenue
N/A
EV/EBITDA
N/A
Market Cap
$10.58B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
11.79%
Operating Margin
11.2%
Gross Margin
67.0%
ROE
8.58%
ROA
3.25%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+13.4%
Earnings Growth
N/A
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
N/A
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.47
Low debt
Current Ratio
0.31
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.28
Poor
Cash/Share
$N/A
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-11
$N/A
2025-10-29
$0.16
-37.3% surprise
2025-07-30
$0.35
-16.4% surprise
2025-04-30
$0.78
-11.0% surprise
Energy Sector Comparison
Comparing AR against 26 companies in the Energy sector
(0 bullish, 20 neutral, 6 bearish)
P/E Ratio
18.14
This Stock
vs
23.13
Sector Avg
-21.5%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
8.58%
This Stock
vs
7.95%
Sector Avg
+7.9%
(Above Avg)
Profit Margin
11.79%
This Stock
vs
8.82%
Sector Avg
+33.7%
(Superior)
Debt to Equity
0.47
This Stock
vs
0.68
Sector Avg
-29.7%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
13.4%
This Stock
vs
4.1%
Sector Avg
+227.1%
(Fast Growth)
Current Ratio
0.31
This Stock
vs
1.18
Sector Avg
-73.9%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AR
Antero Resources Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $10.58B | 18.14 | 8.6% | 11.8% | $34.29 | |
|
APA
APA Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $12.18B | 8.64 | 25.3% | 16.5% | $34.47 | |
|
AM
Antero Midstream Corporation
|
BEARISH | $8.97B | 19.13 | 22.5% | 37.8% | $18.75 | |
|
AROC
Archrock, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $4.88B | 18.44 | 19.6% | 18.4% | $27.85 | |
|
BTU
Peabody Energy Corporation
|
BEARISH | $4.62B | - | -0.4% | -0.8% | $37.96 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-09 | HARDESTY BENJAMIN A | Director | Stock Award | 2,310 | - |
| 2026-01-09 | TYREE THOMAS BURDICK JR. | Director | Stock Award | 1,712 | - |
| 2026-01-09 | MUTSCHLER JACQUELINE C | Director | Stock Award | 1,712 | - |
| 2026-01-09 | MUNOZ JEFFREY S | Director | Stock Award | 1,712 | - |
| 2026-01-09 | SUTIL VICKY | Director | Stock Award | 1,712 | - |
| 2026-01-09 | SCHROER BRENDA R | Director | Stock Award | 1,712 | - |
| 2026-01-09 | KEENAN W HOWARD JR | Director | Stock Award | 1,712 | - |
| 2025-11-07 | KRUEGER BRENDAN E. | Chief Financial Officer | Purchase | 5,000 | $166,750 |
| 2025-11-07 | KRUEGER BRENDAN E. | Chief Financial Officer | Purchase | 5,000 | $166,750 |
| 2025-11-03 | HARDESTY BENJAMIN A | Director | Gift | 1,425 | - |
| 2025-10-10 | HARDESTY BENJAMIN A | Director | Stock Award | 2,010 | - |
| 2025-10-10 | TYREE THOMAS BURDICK JR. | Director | Stock Award | 1,700 | - |
| 2025-10-10 | MUTSCHLER JACQUELINE C | Director | Stock Award | 1,700 | - |
| 2025-10-10 | MUNOZ JEFFREY S | Director | Stock Award | 1,700 | - |
| 2025-10-10 | SUTIL VICKY | Director | Stock Award | 1,700 | - |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
20 analysts
Morgan Stanley
2026-01-23
Overweight
Overweight
Barclays
2026-01-21
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Wells Fargo
2025-12-12
Overweight
Overweight
UBS
2025-12-12
Buy
Buy
Barclays
2025-12-11
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
B of A Securities
2025-12-10
Buy
Buy
Morgan Stanley
2025-12-09
Overweight
Overweight
BMO Capital
2025-12-09
Market Perform
Market Perform
JP Morgan
2025-12-08
Overweight
Neutral
Wells Fargo
2025-11-03
Equal-Weight
Overweight
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning AR from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.