ARLO Arlo Technologies, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
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ARLO Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Industrials
Building Products & Equipment
Current Price
Live
$12.99
Analyst Target
$23.2
+78.6%
Upside
52W High
$19.94
52W Low
$7.84
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$1.38B
P/E
433.0
ROE
3.8%
Profit margin
0.8%
Debt/Equity
0.07
Dividend yield
N/A
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
65%
ARLO exhibits weak financial health with a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, indicating borderline stability, and lacks an Altman Z-Score to assess bankruptcy risk. While the company shows strong recent earnings growth and beats on earnings surprises, profitability remains thin with negative ROA and elevated valuation multiples. The stock trades significantly above its Graham Number of $0.91 and intrinsic value of $0.21, suggesting substantial premium pricing. Analysts maintain a strong_buy recommendation, but insider selling worth $17.9M over the past six months raises caution, offsetting bullish sentiment.
Key Strengths
Strong recent earnings performance with 4 out of the last 5 quarters beating estimates and high positive surprises
Low debt burden with a Debt/Equity ratio of just 0.07, indicating conservative capital structure
Improving earnings trend: YoY EPS growth of +45.5% and Q/Q EPS growth of +433.3%
Analyst consensus is strong_buy with a high target price of $23.20 implying 78% upside
Gross margin of 41.63% is healthy relative to sector despite low net profitability
Key Risks
Weak financial health: Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 suggests instability and lack of Altman Z-Score increases uncertainty
Extremely high P/E of 433.00 indicates potential overvaluation, especially compared to forward P/E of 16.56
Negative ROA of -0.41% signals inefficient asset utilization and poor profitability
Insiders have been aggressively selling, with $17.9M in sales and zero buys in the last 6 months
Price/Sales of 2.70 and Price/Book of 10.63 are elevated relative to minimal profit margins
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$10.5
-19.2% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
41
Moderate
35
70
60
42
0
AI Verdict
Cautiously optimistic with significant financial health and valuation concerns
Key drivers: High analyst target implies growth expectations, Recent earnings momentum, Low leverage, Overvalued metrics, Negative insider sentiment
Confidence
70%
Value
35/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Forward P/E of 16.56 is reasonable
Watchpoints
- Current P/E of 433.00 is extremely high
- Price/Book of 10.63 is elevated
- Price/Sales of 2.70 not justified by current margins
- Stock trades far above Graham Number ($0.91) and intrinsic value ($0.21)
Future
70/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Revenue growth of 1.40% is modest but positive
- Strong YoY EPS growth of +45.5%
- Q/Q EPS growth of +433.3% indicates sharp improvement
- Analyst target suggests strong future upside
Watchpoints
- Earnings growth data incomplete (N/A for some periods)
- Revenue growth lags peer average of 17.89%
Past
60/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Consistent pattern of beating earnings estimates in recent quarters
- Turnaround from large losses to profitability since 2022
Watchpoints
- Historical losses in multiple prior quarters
- Profitability only recently achieved
Health
42/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Current ratio of 1.42 and quick ratio of 1.14 indicate adequate short-term liquidity
- Debt/Equity of 0.07 shows minimal leverage
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health
- ROA of -0.41% is negative
- No Altman Z-Score available for distress assessment
Dividend
0/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
- No dividend paid
- Dividend strength score of 0/100
- Payout ratio is 0.00%
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$12.99
Analyst Target
$23.2
Upside/Downside
+78.6%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for ARLO and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-23
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ARLO
Arlo Technologies, Inc.
Primary
|
+60.2% | +244.6% | +8.2% | -20.0% | -7.4% | -7.8% |
|
BW
Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises, Inc.
Peer
|
+38.8% | +93.9% | +991.4% | +278.1% | +9.4% | -19.8% |
|
ALGT
Allegiant Travel Company
Peer
|
-71.1% | -15.9% | +40.3% | +15.9% | -31.4% | -5.6% |
|
ASTE
Astec Industries, Inc.
Peer
|
-8.6% | +43.5% | +75.4% | +34.5% | +30.3% | +5.7% |
|
AMPX
Amprius Technologies, Inc.
Peer
|
+11.7% | +73.2% | +231.4% | +36.2% | +30.9% | +1.6% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
433.0
Forward P/E
16.56
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
10.63
P/S Ratio
2.7
EV/Revenue
2.39
EV/EBITDA
1000.12
Market Cap
$1.38B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
0.84%
Operating Margin
0.62%
Gross Margin
41.63%
ROE
3.8%
ROA
-0.41%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+1.4%
Earnings Growth
N/A
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
N/A
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.07
Low debt
Current Ratio
1.42
Good
Quick Ratio
1.14
Good
Cash/Share
$1.56
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-26
$N/A
2025-11-06
$0.16
+8.0% surprise
2025-08-07
$0.03
-14.3% surprise
2025-05-08
$0.15
+28.2% surprise
Industrials Sector Comparison
Comparing ARLO against 122 companies in the Industrials sector
(6 bullish, 58 neutral, 58 bearish)
P/E Ratio
433.0
This Stock
vs
73.3
Sector Avg
+490.7%
(Expensive)
Return on Equity (ROE)
3.8%
This Stock
vs
7.81%
Sector Avg
-51.3%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
0.84%
This Stock
vs
58.28%
Sector Avg
-98.6%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.07
This Stock
vs
5.47
Sector Avg
-98.7%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
1.4%
This Stock
vs
21.59%
Sector Avg
-93.5%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
1.42
This Stock
vs
2.66
Sector Avg
-46.6%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ARLO
Arlo Technologies, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $1.38B | 433.0 | 3.8% | 0.8% | $12.99 | |
|
BW
Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $1.37B | - | -% | -6.2% | $10.51 | |
|
ALGT
Allegiant Travel Company
|
BEARISH | $1.38B | - | -4.2% | -1.7% | $75.04 | |
|
ASTE
Astec Industries, Inc.
|
BULLISH | $1.42B | 29.71 | 5.9% | 2.8% | $62.09 | |
|
AMPX
Amprius Technologies, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $1.46B | - | -39.0% | -53.2% | $11.17 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-09 | BINDER KURTIS JOSEPH | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 55,043 | $753,500 |
| 2026-01-09 | BUSSE BRIAN C | General Counsel | Sale | 18,841 | $257,920 |
| 2026-01-09 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 90,089 | $1,233,255 |
| 2026-01-08 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 166,666 | - |
| 2026-01-08 | BINDER KURTIS JOSEPH | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 100,000 | - |
| 2026-01-08 | BUSSE BRIAN C | General Counsel | Stock Award | 50,000 | - |
| 2025-12-01 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 257,242 | $3,672,876 |
| 2025-11-28 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | Chief Executive Officer | Gift | 563,293 | - |
| 2025-11-14 | BUSSE BRIAN C | General Counsel | Sale | 149,521 | $2,149,140 |
| 2025-11-04 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 18,645 | $333,089 |
| 2025-11-03 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 33,175 | - |
| 2025-10-15 | BINDER KURTIS JOSEPH | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 51,668 | $920,527 |
| 2025-10-02 | BUSSE BRIAN C | General Counsel | Sale | 9,171 | $155,835 |
| 2025-10-02 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 95,430 | $1,621,566 |
| 2025-10-01 | MCRAE MATTHEW BLAKE | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 178,094 | - |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
STRONG_BUY
5 analysts
BWS Financial
2025-11-11
Buy
Buy
BWS Financial
2025-08-11
Buy
Buy
Raymond James
2025-08-08
Outperform
Outperform
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning ARLO from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.