ARX Accelerant Holdings - Fundamental Analysis
BEARISH
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ARX Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Financial Services
Insurance Brokers
Current Price
Live
$14.85
Analyst Target
$21.06
+41.8%
Upside
52W High
$31.18
52W Low
$11.2
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$3.29B
P/E
N/A
ROE
-280.1%
Profit margin
-182.9%
Debt/Equity
0.17
Dividend yield
N/A
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
68%
Analysis Accuracy
The Advanced Deterministic Scorecard reveals a weak financial health profile with a Piotroski F-Score of just 2/9, indicating significant operational and profitability concerns. Despite strong revenue growth of 57.1% YoY and a bullish analyst recommendation, the company is deeply unprofitable with a -182.93% profit margin and -280.06% ROE, severely undermining its valuation. High valuation multiples like a Price/Book of 4.87 and Forward P/E of 23.02 are not justified by current earnings or cash flow, while the stock has declined 44% over the past year. Although balance sheet liquidity appears strong with a Current Ratio of 32.67 and low Debt/Equity of 0.17, the lack of Altman Z-Score and intrinsic value metrics limits confidence in solvency assessment.
Key Strengths
Exceptional revenue growth at 57.10% YoY, outpacing sector average of 45.45%
Strong gross margin of 63.44%, indicating pricing power or efficient cost structure
Very low Debt/Equity ratio of 0.17, well below sector average of 1.91
Exceptional liquidity with Current Ratio of 32.67 and Quick Ratio of 31.73
Analyst consensus recommendation is 'buy' with a target price of $21.06 implying 42% upside
Key Risks
Critically low Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 signals severe financial distress and poor earnings quality
Massive negative profitability: -182.93% profit margin and -280.06% ROE indicate systemic losses
No calculable Altman Z-Score increases uncertainty around bankruptcy risk
Stock trades at high valuation (Forward P/E 23.02) despite negative earnings and no Graham Number
Price performance has been disastrous: -44% over 1Y and -50.1% over 6M despite revenue growth
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$8.5
-42.8% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
28
Weak
28
62
30
22
0
AI Verdict
High-risk turnaround play with unproven profitability
Key drivers: Piotroski F-Score of 2 severely penalizes health score, Negative earnings and ROE drag down value and future scores, High revenue growth supports future potential, Analyst target implies significant upside but contradicts fundamentals, Lack of cash flow and intrinsic value data increases uncertainty
Confidence
70%
Value
28/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Low Debt/Equity of 0.17 supports balance sheet strength
Watchpoints
- No Graham Number due to unprofitability
- Forward P/E of 23.02 not supported by current earnings
- Price/Book of 4.87 is high for a loss-making company
Future
62/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Revenue growth of 57.10% YoY exceeds peer average
- Most recent Q/Q EPS growth of +178.6% shows potential inflection
- Analyst target price implies strong future expectations
Watchpoints
- Earnings growth data is incomplete (N/A)
- No PEG ratio due to unprofitability
Past
30/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Company beat earnings estimates in 2 out of 3 quarters with 47.48% average surprise
Watchpoints
- 52-week high of $31.18 vs current $14.85 represents -52% decline
- 5Y, 3Y, 1Y returns all at -44%, indicating prolonged underperformance
- No 50-day or 200-day moving average data suggests volatility or illiquidity
Health
22/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Current Ratio of 32.67 and Quick Ratio of 31.73 indicate extreme liquidity
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 indicates weak financial health
- No Altman Z-Score available increases risk uncertainty
- ROE of -280.06% and negative ROIC signal capital destruction
Dividend
0/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
- Dividend Strength score of 0/100
- No dividend yield or payout history
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$14.85
Analyst Target
$21.06
Upside/Downside
+41.8%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for ARX and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-23
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ARX
Accelerant Holdings
Primary
|
-44.0% | -44.0% | -44.0% | -50.1% | -11.9% | -1.3% |
|
AHL
Aspen Insurance Holdings Limite
Peer
|
+14.7% | +14.7% | +14.7% | +16.8% | +0.6% | -0.1% |
|
BFH
Bread Financial Holdings, Inc.
Peer
|
+35.8% | +79.6% | +7.7% | +9.5% | -10.3% | -6.7% |
|
BANC
Banc of California, Inc.
Peer
|
+24.0% | +31.3% | +30.2% | +33.3% | +1.3% | -4.2% |
|
APAM
Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc.
Peer
|
+22.7% | +53.3% | +5.4% | -4.3% | +3.2% | -2.8% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
N/A
Forward P/E
23.02
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
4.87
P/S Ratio
4.29
EV/Revenue
2.32
EV/EBITDA
20.17
Market Cap
$3.29B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
-182.93%
Operating Margin
0.09%
Gross Margin
63.44%
ROE
-280.06%
ROA
0.52%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+57.1%
Earnings Growth
N/A
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
N/A
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.17
Low debt
Current Ratio
32.67
Strong
Quick Ratio
31.73
Excellent
Cash/Share
$7.49
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-03-31
$N/A
2025-11-12
$0.39
+80.6% surprise
2025-08-28
$0.14
+14.4% surprise
Financial Services Sector Comparison
Comparing ARX against 208 companies in the Financial Services sector
(5 bullish, 111 neutral, 92 bearish)
Return on Equity (ROE)
-280.06%
This Stock
vs
-7.62%
Sector Avg
+3574.6%
(Excellent)
Profit Margin
-182.93%
This Stock
vs
82.75%
Sector Avg
-321.0%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.17
This Stock
vs
1.48
Sector Avg
-88.3%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
57.1%
This Stock
vs
28.35%
Sector Avg
+101.4%
(Fast Growth)
Current Ratio
32.67
This Stock
vs
3.81
Sector Avg
+757.8%
(Stronger)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ARX
Accelerant Holdings
|
BEARISH | $3.29B | - | -280.1% | -182.9% | $14.85 | |
|
AHL
Aspen Insurance Holdings Limite
|
BEARISH | $3.42B | 5.48 | 14.0% | 14.2% | $37.26 | |
|
BFH
Bread Financial Holdings, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $3.14B | 7.19 | 14.8% | 18.8% | $68.78 | |
|
BANC
Banc of California, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $3.1B | 17.79 | 6.0% | 20.4% | $19.92 | |
|
APAM
Artisan Partners Asset...
|
NEUTRAL | $3.04B | 11.61 | 49.6% | 22.9% | $43.09 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-08 | MERIWETHER KAREN SUE | Director | Purchase | 542 | $7,951 |
| 2025-11-19 | GAYNOR SAMUEL SAM | Director | Purchase | 7,500 | $100,774 |
| 2025-11-19 | LEE-SMITH CHRISTOPHER | Officer and Director | Purchase | 14,700 | $197,240 |
| 2025-11-18 | ONEILL FRANCIS JAMES | Officer | Purchase | 38,000 | $506,810 |
| 2025-11-17 | STERNBERG MATTHEW DAVID | Officer | Purchase | 5,700 | $74,696 |
| 2025-11-14 | RADKE JEFFREY L | Chief Executive Officer | Purchase | 74,110 | $999,366 |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
9 analysts
Piper Sandler
2026-01-07
Overweight
Overweight
Citizens
2025-12-04
Market Perform
Market Outperform
Morgan Stanley
2025-11-17
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Piper Sandler
2025-11-14
Overweight
Overweight
RBC Capital
2025-10-31
Outperform
Outperform
Wells Fargo
2025-10-08
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Morgan Stanley
2025-10-07
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Piper Sandler
2025-10-06
Overweight
Overweight
Goldman Sachs
2025-10-06
Neutral
Buy
Raymond James
2025-09-22
Outperform
Outperform
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning ARX from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.