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CCL

NEUTRAL
$27.17 Live
Carnival Corporation & plc · NYSE
Target $34.51 (+27.0%)
$17.33 52W Range $34.03

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Apr 25, 2026
Market cap
$37.63B
P/E
11.97
ROE
27.9%
Profit margin
11.5%
Debt/Equity
2.04
Dividend yield
0.55%

AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence
85%
Carnival Corporation presents a high-risk recovery profile, characterized by a stable but fragile Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 and a significant valuation gap, as the current price ($27.17) exceeds both the Graham Number ($21.92) and the Intrinsic Value ($15.89). While the company has successfully returned to profitability with a strong ROE of 27.85% and a consistent track record of earnings beats, its balance sheet remains precarious. The critical liquidity risk is highlighted by a Current Ratio of 0.30 and a Debt/Equity ratio of 2.04. Consequently, the stock is a speculative recovery play rather than a fundamental value investment.

Key Strengths

Strong return on equity (ROE) of 27.85%
Consistent earnings beats over the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 18.71%
Low Forward P/E of 10.50 relative to the Consumer Cyclical sector average
Successful transition from heavy pandemic-era losses to positive profit margins (11.48%)
Strong analyst support with a mean target price of $34.51

Key Risks

Severe liquidity risk indicated by a Current Ratio of 0.30
High leverage with a Debt/Equity ratio of 2.04
Trading at a premium to both Graham Number and Intrinsic Value
Bearish insider activity, specifically significant selling by the CFO
High sensitivity to macroeconomic shocks given the cyclical nature of the cruise industry
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$23.5
-13.5% below current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
42
Moderate
Value
55
Future
65
Past
40
Health
30
Dividend
20
AI Verdict
Speculative Recovery
Key drivers: Profitability recovery, Liquidity crisis risk, Valuation premium, High leverage
Confidence
90%
Value
55/100

P/E is attractive, but deterministic value formulas suggest the stock is overvalued.

Positives
  • Low P/E ratio
  • Reasonable PEG ratio (1.08)
Watchpoints
  • Price exceeds Graham Number ($21.92)
  • Price exceeds Intrinsic Value ($15.89)
Future
65/100

Growth is steady, but the primary driver is the recovery from a low baseline.

Positives
  • Positive revenue growth (6.10%)
  • Strong earnings surprise trend
Watchpoints
  • Modest YoY revenue growth compared to sector average
Past
40/100

Historical performance was devastated by the pandemic, though the 3Y change is +204.6%.

Positives
  • Successful pivot back to profitability
Watchpoints
  • History of massive EPS losses from 2020-2023
Health
30/100

The balance sheet is the primary point of failure; liquidity is dangerously low.

Positives
  • Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 (Stable)
Watchpoints
  • Current Ratio of 0.30 is critically low
  • Debt/Equity of 2.04 is high
Dividend
20/100

Dividends are not a primary driver for this equity.

Positives
  • Low payout ratio (6.61%)
Watchpoints
  • Negligible yield (0.55%)
  • Low dividend strength score (25/100)

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$27.17
Analyst Target
$34.51
Upside/Downside
+27.0%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for CCL and closest competitors.

Updated 2026-04-24
CCL
Carnival Corporation & plc
Primary
5Y
-0.9%
3Y
+204.6%
1Y
+46.0%
6M
-7.2%
1M
+5.6%
1W
-7.0%
TCO
Trip.com Group Limited
Peer
5Y
+45.3%
3Y
+51.1%
1Y
-0.4%
6M
-22.9%
1M
+7.7%
1W
+6.3%
YUM
Yum! Brands, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+56.1%
3Y
+28.0%
1Y
+11.1%
6M
+1.6%
1M
+3.1%
1W
-0.1%
CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+25.2%
3Y
+3.6%
1Y
-47.3%
6M
-39.7%
1M
-24.4%
1W
+3.2%
JD
JD.com, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-58.0%
3Y
-20.7%
1Y
-15.8%
6M
-5.9%
1M
+6.6%
1W
+5.3%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
11.97
Forward P/E
10.5
PEG Ratio
1.08
P/B Ratio
2.89
P/S Ratio
1.4
EV/Revenue
2.33
EV/EBITDA
8.66
Market Cap
$37.63B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 11.48%
Operating Margin 9.83%
Gross Margin 55.97%
ROE 27.85%
ROA 5.52%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth +6.1%
Earnings Growth N/A
Q/Q Revenue Growth +6.11%
Q/Q Earnings Growth N/A

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
2.04
High debt
Current Ratio
0.3
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.17
Poor
Cash/Share
$1.03

Financial Statement Flow

Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q1 2026

Revenue
$6.2B
Gross Margin
36.1%
Op. Margin
9.8%
Net Margin
4.2%
Total Assets
$51.6B
Liabilities
$38.5B
Equity
$13.0B
Debt/Equity
2.96x
Operating CF
$1.3B
CapEx
$-0.6B
Free Cash Flow
$0.7B
FCF Yield
55%

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-06-24
$N/A
2026-03-27
$0.2
+8.9% surprise
2025-12-19
$0.34
+38.6% surprise
2025-09-29
$1.43
+8.5% surprise

Consumer Cyclical Sector Comparison

Comparing CCL against 330 companies in the Consumer Cyclical sector (20 bullish, 102 neutral, 208 bearish)
P/E Ratio
11.97
This Stock
vs
34.26
Sector Avg
-65.1% (Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
27.85%
This Stock
vs
-52.63%
Sector Avg
-152.9% (Below Avg)
Profit Margin
11.48%
This Stock
vs
-6.66%
Sector Avg
-272.3% (Weaker)
Debt to Equity
2.04
This Stock
vs
1.42
Sector Avg
+44.0% (Higher)
Revenue Growth
6.1%
This Stock
vs
32.35%
Sector Avg
-81.1% (Slower)
Current Ratio
0.3
This Stock
vs
2.45
Sector Avg
-87.8% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

BAND SIR JONATHON
Director
Sell
2026-04-01
12,000 shares · $314,266
WEINSTEIN JOSHUA IAN
Chief Executive Officer
Stock Award
2026-02-10
635,820 shares
DEYNES BETTINA ALEJANDRA
Officer
Stock Award
2026-02-10
47,686 shares
LJOEN LARS JAKOB
Officer
Stock Award
2026-02-10
18,164 shares
BERNSTEIN DAVID
Chief Financial Officer
Stock Award
2026-02-10
333,805 shares
BERNSTEIN DAVID
Chief Financial Officer
Sell
2026-02-10
361,790 shares · $12,016,891
MIGUEZ ENRIQUE
General Counsel
Stock Award
2026-02-10
63,581 shares
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

SEC Filings

Recent regulatory filings from the SEC EDGAR database

8-K
8-K
2026-04-20

Carnival Corporation & plc filed an 8-K to report its quarterly financial results.

10-Q
10-Q
2026-03-27

Carnival Corporation is pursuing a corporate unification and redomiciliation from Panama to Bermuda, while continuing to manage seasonal revenue peaks centered in the third quarter. Key financial risks include fuel cost volatility, currency fluctuations, and evolving greenhouse gas regulations, which resulted in a $91 million impact from the EU Emissions Trading System in 2025.

8-K
8-K
2026-03-27

Carnival Corporation & plc filed an 8-K likely announcing its first-quarter financial results.

DEF 14A
DEF 14A
2026-02-27

Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) filed a definitive proxy statement on February 27, 2026, providing shareholders with necessary information and voting materials for its upcoming annual meeting.

8-K
FORM 8-K
2026-02-20

Carnival Corporation & plc filed an 8-K, likely to announce its quarterly financial results.

8-K
FORM 8-K
2026-02-12

Carnival Corporation & plc filed a Form 8-K, likely to announce its quarterly financial results.

10-K
10-K
2026-01-27

Carnival Corporation & plc's 10-K filing dated January 27, 2026, provides a comprehensive overview of its global cruise operations and industry market data. The report includes a detailed analysis of the company's financial condition and results of operations within the MD&A, alongside a dedicated section outlining key operational and industry risk factors.

8-K
8-K
2025-12-19
8-K
FORM 8-K
2025-10-15
8-K
FORM 8-K
2025-09-30

Carnival Corporation & plc filed an 8-K on September 30, 2025, likely to announce its quarterly financial results.

8-K
FORM 8-K
2025-09-30
10-Q
10-Q
2025-09-29
8-K
8-K
2025-09-29
8-K
FORM 8-K
2025-08-19
8-K
8-K
2025-08-08
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR. AI summaries generated automatically.

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
BUY
22 analysts
Wells Fargo
2026-04-15
Maintains
Overweight Overweight
UBS
2026-04-13
Maintains
Buy Buy
Citigroup
2026-03-30
Maintains
Buy Buy
Wells Fargo
2026-03-30
Maintains
Overweight Overweight
Bernstein
2026-03-30
Maintains
Market Perform Market Perform
HSBC
2026-03-30
up
Hold Buy
Mizuho
2026-03-27
Maintains
Outperform Outperform
Truist Securities
2026-03-24
Maintains
Hold Hold
Barclays
2026-03-24
Maintains
Overweight Overweight
Susquehanna
2026-03-23
Maintains
Positive Positive

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning CCL from our newsroom.

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