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EARN

BEARISH
$4.66 Live
Ellington Credit Company · NYSE
Target $5.5 (+18.0%)
$4.27 52W Range $6.08
Overview AI Snowflake Price Valuation Profitability Growth Health Statements Peers Insiders SEC Filings

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Apr 26, 2026
Market cap
$175.07M
P/E
16.64
ROE
-2.8%
Profit margin
-14.6%
Debt/Equity
N/A
Dividend yield
20.6%

AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence
80%
EARN presents a high-risk profile characterized by a stable Piotroski F-Score (5/9) but severe fundamental deterioration, including a -61% YoY revenue collapse and negative profit margins. While the stock trades below its Graham Number ($6.14) and Book Value (P/B 0.78), the massive 20.6% dividend yield is likely unsustainable given the current earnings trajectory and negative ROE. The company's strategic pivot to a RIC focusing on subordinated CLO tranches exposes it to significant credit and subordination risks. Technicals are completely bearish (0/100), suggesting the market is pricing in these structural risks.

Key Strengths

Trading at a discount to book value (P/B 0.78)
Current price is below the Graham Number ($6.14)
Very low Forward P/E (4.24) suggesting potential earnings recovery
Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicates stable baseline financial health
High current income generation for yield-seekers

Key Risks

Severe revenue contraction (-61% YoY)
Negative profit margins (-14.61%) and negative ROE (-2.82%)
High exposure to mezzanine and equity CLO tranches (subordination risk)
Extreme liquidity risk associated with illiquid CLO securities
Dividend trap risk given the 20.6% yield vs. negative profitability
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$3.85
-17.4% below current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
40
Moderate
Value
60
Future
20
Past
40
Health
50
Dividend
30
AI Verdict
High-Risk Value Trap
Key drivers: Revenue collapse, Subordinated CLO risk, Unsustainable dividend yield, Bearish technical trend
Confidence
85%
Value
60/100

Ref P/E 16.64, Graham Number $6.14

Positives
  • P/B < 1.0
  • Price < Graham Number
Watchpoints
  • Price significantly above growth-based intrinsic value ($1.96)
Future
20/100

Ref Growth rates and Profitability

Positives
  • Low forward P/E
Watchpoints
  • Revenue growth -61%
  • Negative profit margins
Past
40/100

Ref Historical price and EPS trends

Positives
  • Consistent quarterly reporting history
Watchpoints
  • 5Y Change -23.4%
  • Recent earnings surprises are predominantly negative
Health
50/100

Ref Piotroski F-Score and Liquidity ratios

Positives
  • Piotroski F-Score 5/9 (Stable)
Watchpoints
  • Extremely low current ratio (0.05)
  • High leverage via repurchase agreements
Dividend
30/100

Ref Yield 20.6%, Profit Margin -14.61%

Positives
  • Extremely high yield (20.6%)
Watchpoints
  • Negative earnings to support distributions
  • High risk of dividend cut

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$4.66
Analyst Target
$5.5
Upside/Downside
+18.0%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for EARN and closest competitors.

Updated 2026-04-24
EAR
Ellington Credit Company
Primary
5Y
-23.4%
3Y
+2.3%
1Y
+1.4%
6M
-4.0%
1M
+5.9%
1W
-1.3%
ANT
Antalpha Platform Holding Compa
Peer
5Y
-42.3%
3Y
-42.3%
1Y
-42.3%
6M
-38.0%
1M
-17.0%
1W
-5.7%
BSL
Blackstone Senior Floating Rate 2027 Term Fund
Peer
5Y
+39.0%
3Y
+38.7%
1Y
+2.4%
6M
-0.7%
1M
+0.8%
1W
-0.5%
DHF
BNY Mellon High Yield Strategies Fund
Peer
5Y
+19.8%
3Y
+42.6%
1Y
+9.0%
6M
-1.2%
1M
+2.0%
1W
-1.2%
CAN
Cango Inc.
Peer
5Y
-61.3%
3Y
-26.8%
1Y
-80.0%
6M
-80.0%
1M
-2.1%
1W
+13.8%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
16.64
Forward P/E
4.24
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
0.78
P/S Ratio
4.88
EV/Revenue
N/A
EV/EBITDA
N/A
Market Cap
$175.07M

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin -14.61%
Operating Margin 68.38%
Gross Margin 100.0%
ROE -2.82%
ROA -0.6%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth -61.0%
Earnings Growth N/A
Q/Q Revenue Growth N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth N/A

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
N/A
Current Ratio
0.05
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.05
Poor
Cash/Share
$N/A

Financial Statement Flow

Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q1 2025

Revenue
$-0.0B
Net Margin
148.7%
Total Assets
$0.8B
Liabilities
$0.6B
Equity
$0.2B
Debt/Equity
2.43x
Operating CF
$0.0B
Free Cash Flow
$0.0B
FCF Yield
100%

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-03-04
$0.21
-12.5% surprise
2025-11-19
$0.23
+13.5% surprise
2025-08-19
$0.18
-21.7% surprise
2025-08-19
$0.18
-20.9% surprise

Financial Services Sector Comparison

Comparing EARN against 697 companies in the Financial Services sector (120 bullish, 285 neutral, 292 bearish)
P/E Ratio
16.64
This Stock
vs
38.65
Sector Avg
-56.9% (Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
-2.82%
This Stock
vs
-2.77%
Sector Avg
+2.1% (Above Avg)
Profit Margin
-14.61%
This Stock
vs
60.34%
Sector Avg
-124.2% (Weaker)
Revenue Growth
-61.0%
This Stock
vs
39.95%
Sector Avg
-252.7% (Slower)
Current Ratio
0.05
This Stock
vs
3.42
Sector Avg
-98.5% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

EARN Ellington Credit Company
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$175M
P/E
16.6
ROE
-2.8%
Price
$4.66
ANTA Antalpha...
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$175M
P/E
9.9
ROE
19.6%
Price
$7.39
 Compare with EARN
BSL Blackstone...
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$176M
P/E
14.3
ROE
6.4%
Price
$13.55
 Compare with EARN
DHF BNY Mellon...
NEUTRAL
Mkt Cap
$177M
P/E
11.6
ROE
7.5%
Price
$2.43
 Compare with EARN
CANG Cango Inc.
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$173M
P/E
-
ROE
-95.2%
Price
$0.42
 Compare with EARN

SEC Filings

Recent regulatory filings from the SEC EDGAR database

8-K
8-K
2026-04-08

EARN filed an 8-K on April 8, 2026, likely to announce its first-quarter financial results.

8-K
8-K
2026-03-31

EARN reported its first-quarter financial results for the period ending March 31, 2026.

8-K
8-K
2026-03-26

EARN filed an 8-K on March 26, 2026, likely to announce its annual financial results.

8-K
8-K
2026-03-09

EARN filed an 8-K on March 9, 2026, likely to announce its annual financial results.

8-K
8-K
2026-03-04

EARN filed an 8-K on March 4, 2026, likely reporting its annual financial results for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025.

8-K
8-K
2026-02-09

EARN filed an 8-K on February 9, 2026, likely to announce its fourth quarter and full-year financial results.

8-K
8-K
2026-01-09
8-K
8-K
2025-12-04

EARN filed an 8-K on December 4, 2025, likely to announce its quarterly financial results.

8-K
8-K
2025-11-19
8-K
8-K
2025-11-10

EARN filed a current report on November 10, 2025, likely announcing its third-quarter financial results.

8-K
8-K
2025-10-07
8-K
8-K
2025-09-08
8-K
8-K
2025-08-19
8-K
8-K
2025-08-07
8-K
8-K
2025-07-08
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR. AI summaries generated automatically.

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
NONE
1 analysts
Piper Sandler
2026-03-06
Maintains
Overweight Overweight

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning EARN from our newsroom.

Newest → oldest
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