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HRTG

NEUTRAL
$29.9 Live
Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. · NYSE
Target $36.5 (+22.1%)
$16.82 52W Range $31.98

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Apr 28, 2026
Market cap
$918.56M
P/E
4.73
ROE
49.1%
Profit margin
23.1%
Debt/Equity
0.2
Dividend yield
N/A

AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence
80%
HRTG presents a stark contradiction between extreme valuation attractiveness and deteriorating fundamental health, evidenced by a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3/9. While the stock trades at a very low P/E of 4.73 and well below its Graham Number ($49.47), the combination of heavy insider selling and a low current ratio (0.83) suggests significant underlying risk. Explosive earnings growth is not currently supported by organic revenue growth (2.40%), indicating potential non-recurring gains or aggressive accounting. The technical trend is heavily bearish, offsetting the bullish analyst recommendations.

Key Strengths

Extremely low P/E ratio (4.73) relative to sector averages
Exceptional Return on Equity (ROE) of 49.14%
Strong recent earnings track record with significant beats
Low Debt/Equity ratio (0.20) indicating low leverage
Trading significantly below Graham Number and Intrinsic Value

Key Risks

Weak Piotroski F-Score (3/9) indicating poor fundamental health
Aggressive insider selling (15 sell transactions, 0 buys)
Liquidity concerns with a Current Ratio of 0.83 and Quick Ratio of 0.42
Stagnant year-over-year revenue growth (2.40%)
Strongly bearish technical trend (10/100)
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$42.5
+42.1% above current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
47
Moderate
Value
92
Future
55
Past
65
Health
25
Dividend
0
AI Verdict
High-Risk Value Trap Candidate
Key drivers: Deep valuation discount, Poor fundamental health score, Bearish insider sentiment, Divergence between revenue and earnings growth
Confidence
85%
Value
92/100

Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number

Positives
  • P/E of 4.73 is deeply undervalued
  • Price is well below Graham Number ($49.47)
Watchpoints
  • Low valuation may reflect market skepticism of earnings quality
Future
55/100

Ref Growth rates

Positives
  • Massive YoY earnings growth (226%)
Watchpoints
  • Revenue growth is nearly flat (2.4%)
  • Q/Q revenue growth is sharply negative (-32.27%)
Past
65/100

Ref Historical trends

Positives
  • Consistent earnings beats in the last 4 quarters
  • Strong 3Y and 5Y price appreciation
Watchpoints
  • High volatility in historical quarterly EPS
Health
25/100

Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score

Positives
  • Low Debt/Equity ratio
Watchpoints
  • Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 is weak
  • Current ratio below 1.0 indicates liquidity risk
Dividend
0/100

Ref Yield, Payout

Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
  • No dividend payments

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$29.9
Analyst Target
$36.5
Upside/Downside
+22.1%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for HRTG and closest competitors.

Updated 2026-04-27
HRT
Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc.
Primary
5Y
+230.6%
3Y
+825.7%
1Y
+58.3%
6M
+27.1%
1M
+15.8%
1W
+9.5%
MBW
Mercantile Bank Corporation
Peer
5Y
+101.4%
3Y
+106.2%
1Y
+36.6%
6M
+21.2%
1M
+9.5%
1W
-0.1%
AWF
AllianceBernstein Global High Income Fund
Peer
5Y
+32.4%
3Y
+32.7%
1Y
+5.2%
6M
-0.2%
1M
-1.0%
1W
+0.7%
BFS
Business First Bancshares, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+34.8%
3Y
+98.0%
1Y
+22.3%
6M
+14.3%
1M
+5.5%
1W
-2.5%
CHY
Calamos Convertible and High Income Fund
Peer
5Y
+18.4%
3Y
+43.7%
1Y
+38.4%
6M
+5.6%
1M
+1.1%
1W
+4.7%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
4.73
Forward P/E
6.08
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
1.74
P/S Ratio
1.08
EV/Revenue
0.49
EV/EBITDA
1.48
Market Cap
$918.56M

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 23.08%
Operating Margin 41.65%
Gross Margin 42.5%
ROE 49.14%
ROA 7.16%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth +2.4%
Earnings Growth +226.0%
Q/Q Revenue Growth -32.27%
Q/Q Earnings Growth +228.6%

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
0.2
Low debt
Current Ratio
0.83
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.42
Poor
Cash/Share
$19.13

Financial Statement Flow

Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025

Revenue
$0.1B
Net Margin
46.8%
Total Assets
$2.2B
Liabilities
$1.7B
Equity
$0.5B
Debt/Equity
3.35x
Operating CF
$0.0B
CapEx
$-0.0B
Free Cash Flow
$0.0B
FCF Yield
79%

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-05-07
$N/A
2026-03-09
$2.15
+24.1% surprise
2025-11-05
$1.56
+194.3% surprise
2025-08-05
$1.55
+51.2% surprise

Financial Services Sector Comparison

Comparing HRTG against 820 companies in the Financial Services sector (141 bullish, 351 neutral, 328 bearish)
P/E Ratio
4.73
This Stock
vs
36.01
Sector Avg
-86.9% (Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
49.14%
This Stock
vs
-0.73%
Sector Avg
-6806.3% (Below Avg)
Profit Margin
23.08%
This Stock
vs
91.62%
Sector Avg
-74.8% (Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.2
This Stock
vs
1.36
Sector Avg
-85.5% (Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
2.4%
This Stock
vs
35.27%
Sector Avg
-93.2% (Slower)
Current Ratio
0.83
This Stock
vs
3.18
Sector Avg
-73.8% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

GARATEIX ERNESTO J
Chief Executive Officer
Sell
2026-04-20
8,334 shares · $229,653
MOURA TIMOTHY
Officer
Sell
2026-04-02
50,490 shares · $1,301,437
BINNUN SHARON
Officer
Sell
2026-04-01
9,200 shares · $236,588
GARATEIX ERNESTO J
Chief Executive Officer
Sell
2026-03-20
8,334 shares · $211,579
MOURA TIMOTHY
Officer
Sell
2026-03-19
29,133 shares · $775,761
BINNUN SHARON
Officer
Sell
2026-03-17
7,893 shares · $223,751
JOHNS TIMOTHY E.
Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-05
2,599 shares
GARATEIX ERNESTO J
Chief Executive Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-05
107,085 shares
BINNUN SHARON
Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-05
15,184 shares
LUSK KIRK H.
Chief Financial Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-05
42,758 shares
MOURA TIMOTHY
Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-05
20,599 shares
GARATEIX ERNESTO J
Chief Executive Officer
Sell
2026-02-20
8,334 shares · $200,999
GARATEIX ERNESTO J
Chief Executive Officer
Sell
2026-01-20
8,334 shares · $216,916
GARATEIX ERNESTO J
Chief Executive Officer
Sell
2025-12-22
8,334 shares · $245,669
GARATEIX ERNESTO J
Chief Executive Officer
Sell
2025-12-12
8,000 shares · $228,112
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

SEC Filings

Recent regulatory filings from the SEC EDGAR database

10-K
10-K
2026-03-12

HRTG filed its annual 10-K report on March 12, 2026. The provided excerpts do not contain specific financial metrics or detailed risk disclosures.

8-K
8-K
2026-03-09
8-K
8-K
2026-02-23
10-Q
10-Q
2025-11-07

HRTG's 10-Q filing identifies key operational risks centered on the execution of its core business plan, liquidity, and the potential for rising material and labor costs. The company also notes uncertainties regarding geographic expansion, legislative impacts, and the management of claims. No specific financial performance metrics were provided in the available excerpts.

8-K
8-K
2025-11-05
8-K
8-K
2025-09-25
10-Q
10-Q
2025-08-08

HRTG's 10-Q filing dated August 8, 2025, identifies key operational risks centered on the execution of its core business plan and geographic expansion. Financial risks include potential increases in material and labor costs, as well as the impact of legislation and claims-related expenses. No specific financial performance metrics were provided in the available excerpts.

8-K
8-K
2025-08-05

Heritage-Crystal Clean, Inc. (HRTG) filed an 8-K, likely reporting its second-quarter financial results.

8-K
8-K
2025-07-24

Heritage-Crystal Clean, Inc. (HRTG) filed an 8-K likely announcing its second-quarter financial results.

8-K
8-K
2025-06-11
10-Q
10-Q
2025-05-09
8-K
8-K
2025-05-08
8-K
8-K
2025-05-06
DEF 14A
DEF 14A
2025-04-25
10-K
10-K
2025-03-13
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR. AI summaries generated automatically.

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
BUY
2 analysts
Truist Securities
2026-03-10
Maintains
Buy Buy
Truist Securities
2025-11-07
Maintains
Buy Buy

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning HRTG from our newsroom.

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