MCO
BULLISH
$479.48
Live
Moody's Corporation · NYSE
Target $543.75
(+13.4%)
$378.71
52W Range
$531.93
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Nov 16, 2025
Market cap
$87.55B
P/E
38.61
ROE
54.9%
Profit margin
29.9%
Debt/Equity
1.81
Dividend yield
0.78%
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
92%
Moody's Corporation (MCO) exhibits exceptional profitability and consistent earnings execution, underpinned by best-in-class margins and ROE of 54.91%, significantly outperforming financial services peers. Despite a premium valuation (P/E 38.6x vs sector 20.6x), the stock is supported by robust 22.9% YoY earnings growth, strong cash flow generation, and a favorable analyst target of $543.75 implying 13.4% upside. Price momentum has lagged recently (1Y: +0.2%, 6M: -1.8%), but long-term performance remains strong (5Y: +81.5%), reflecting durable franchise value in credit ratings and analytics. Insider selling introduces caution, though it appears routine rather than distress-driven, while the analyst community maintains a unified 'buy' recommendation.
Key Strengths
ROE of 54.91% — more than double the sector average of 25.17% — reflecting capital efficiency and pricing power
Operating margin of 46.89% and gross margin of 73.75% demonstrate industry-leading cost structure and pricing control
22.9% YoY earnings growth and 10.7% revenue growth outpace most peers, including MMC and USB, in a high-margin business model
Consistent earnings beat streak: 3 of last 4 quarters beat estimates with an average surprise of 6.56%, signaling strong predictability
Analyst target price of $543.75 implies 13.4% upside, backed by 20 analysts with aligned 'buy' sentiment
Key Risks
Premium valuation: P/E of 38.6x and Price/Book of 21.6x are substantially above sector averages (P/E 20.6x, P/B ~6x), increasing sensitivity to growth deceleration
Debt/Equity of 1.81 is elevated vs sector average of 0.72, raising refinancing and interest rate risk in a higher-for-longer rate environment
Insider activity shows net selling over the past 6 months ($1.66M in sales, 0 buys), potentially signaling lack of confidence at current levels
Near-term price underperformance: 1Y return of +0.2% and 6M decline of -1.8% lag both historical trends and some peers like USB
Limited visibility on free cash flow and enterprise value due to missing data, creating opacity in capital allocation and intrinsic value
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$543.75
+13.4% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
79
Strong
65
90
94
78
70
AI Verdict
MCO earns a high overall score due to exceptional profitability, consistent earnings growth, and strong analyst conviction, despite stretched valuations and modest near-term price weakness; its performance is driven by company-specific execution rather than broad sector tailwinds, as peers trade at half the P/E with lower returns.
Key drivers: Sustained high ROE and margin expansion, Superior earnings growth and beat rate, Analyst target alignment and capital allocation discipline
Confidence
90%
Value
65/100
MCO trades at a substantial valuation premium to financial services peers — MMC (P/E 21.9x), APO (19.0x), USB (10.8x) — justified only by its superior return metrics and growth durability.
Positives
- Forward P/E of 36.0x is slightly below current P/E, suggesting modest de-rating expectations
- Price/Sales of 11.67x reflects premium for high-quality, recurring revenue in financial data
Watchpoints
- P/E of 38.6x is nearly double the sector average of 20.6x, demanding flawless execution
- Price/Book of 21.62x is extremely elevated, indicating limited margin of safety
Future
90/100
Revenue and earnings growth are accelerating against a backdrop of stable macro conditions, with price momentum showing stabilization after recent underperformance, supported by strong analyst upside potential.
Positives
- 22.9% YoY earnings growth and 10.7% revenue growth indicate strong demand for credit intelligence and ESG analytics
- Q/Q EPS growth of 21.0% and consistent beat rates suggest momentum is intact
Watchpoints
- Forward P/E compression risk if interest rates remain elevated and growth normalizes
- Sector-wide regulatory scrutiny on rating agencies could cap pricing power
Past
94/100
MCO has delivered exceptional historical performance with 5Y returns of +81.5% and consistent profitability, outpacing peers like MMC and APO despite recent short-term underperformance.
Positives
- 17 of the last 25 quarters beat or met estimates, with several large positive surprises (e.g., +44.9% in Q2 2021)
- Profit margins and ROE have remained consistently high, demonstrating business model resilience
Watchpoints
- Two notable misses in early 2022 (-9.0%, -4.0%) indicate vulnerability during market volatility
- Q4 2023 miss (-5.5%) raises minor concern about forecasting precision
Health
78/100
While liquidity is solid, MCO’s leverage is significantly above sector norms, though manageable given stable cash flows and investment-grade profile, unlike more leveraged peers such as APO.
Positives
- Current ratio of 1.84 and quick ratio of 1.64 indicate strong short-term liquidity
- Operating margin of 46.89% supports robust internal cash generation, likely funding debt service
Watchpoints
- Debt/Equity of 1.81 is high relative to sector average of 0.72, increasing financial risk
- Missing total debt and cash figures limit full assessment of leverage and runway
Dividend
70/100
The dividend policy is sustainable and disciplined, with a low payout ratio supporting buybacks and reinvestment, though yield remains uncompetitive vs banks like USB and PNC.
Positives
- Payout ratio of 29.53% is conservative, leaving room for future increases
- Dividend yield of 0.78% may be low, but reflects reinvestment in high-return businesses
Watchpoints
- Yield is below peer average and may not attract income-focused investors
- Lack of 5-year yield history limits visibility into dividend growth trajectory
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$479.48
Analyst Target
$543.75
Upside/Downside
+13.4%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for MCO and closest competitors.
Updated 2025-11-14
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
MCO
Moody's Corporation
Primary
|
+81.5% | +64.7% | +0.2% | -1.8% | +0.2% | -1.7% |
|
USB
U.S. Bancorp
Peer
|
+21.0% | +82.1% | +52.1% | +23.8% | +11.3% | +1.8% |
|
ICE
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.
Peer
|
+62.6% | +50.6% | -1.7% | -13.2% | -3.4% | +2.1% |
|
MMC
Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.
Peer
|
+70.2% | +16.8% | -16.1% | -20.3% | -10.3% | +1.5% |
|
KKR
KKR & Co. Inc.
Peer
|
+90.0% | +80.5% | -21.7% | -27.9% | +1.2% | +3.1% |
MCO
Moody's Corporation
Primary
5Y
+81.5%
3Y
+64.7%
1Y
+0.2%
6M
-1.8%
1M
+0.2%
1W
-1.7%
USB
U.S. Bancorp
Peer
5Y
+21.0%
3Y
+82.1%
1Y
+52.1%
6M
+23.8%
1M
+11.3%
1W
+1.8%
ICE
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+62.6%
3Y
+50.6%
1Y
-1.7%
6M
-13.2%
1M
-3.4%
1W
+2.1%
MMC
Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+70.2%
3Y
+16.8%
1Y
-16.1%
6M
-20.3%
1M
-10.3%
1W
+1.5%
KKR
KKR & Co. Inc.
Peer
5Y
+90.0%
3Y
+80.5%
1Y
-21.7%
6M
-27.9%
1M
+1.2%
1W
+3.1%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
38.61
Forward P/E
36.0
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
21.62
P/S Ratio
11.67
EV/Revenue
12.12
EV/EBITDA
25.39
Market Cap
$87.55B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
29.92%
Operating Margin
46.89%
Gross Margin
73.75%
ROE
54.91%
ROA
13.19%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+10.7%
Earnings Growth
+22.9%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+21.0%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
1.81
High debt
Current Ratio
1.84
Good
Quick Ratio
1.64
Excellent
Cash/Share
$12.66
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-12
$N/A
2025-10-22
$3.92
+6.4% surprise
2025-07-23
$3.56
+5.0% surprise
2025-04-22
$3.83
+8.2% surprise
Financial Services Sector Comparison
Comparing MCO against 820 companies in the Financial Services sector
(141 bullish, 351 neutral, 328 bearish)
P/E Ratio
38.61
This Stock
vs
36.01
Sector Avg
+7.2%
(Premium)
Return on Equity (ROE)
54.91%
This Stock
vs
-0.73%
Sector Avg
-7594.2%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
29.92%
This Stock
vs
91.62%
Sector Avg
-67.3%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
1.81
This Stock
vs
1.36
Sector Avg
+33.5%
(Higher)
Revenue Growth
10.7%
This Stock
vs
35.27%
Sector Avg
-69.7%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
1.84
This Stock
vs
3.18
Sector Avg
-42.1%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
MCO
Moody's Corporation
|
BULLISH | $87.55B | 38.61 | 54.9% | 29.9% | $479.48 | |
|
USB
U.S. Bancorp
|
BULLISH | $87.58B | 12.2 | 12.2% | 28.7% | $56.37 | Compare |
|
ICE
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.
|
BULLISH | $87.07B | 27.7 | 11.5% | 32.4% | $152.07 | Compare |
|
MMC
Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $90.07B | 21.92 | 28.7% | 15.6% | $182.81 | Compare |
|
KKR
KKR & Co. Inc.
|
BEARISH | $84.89B | 39.17 | 8.6% | 9.2% | $91.66 | Compare |
MCO
Moody's Corporation
BULLISH
Mkt Cap
$87.6B
P/E
38.6
ROE
54.9%
Price
$479.48
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-03 | FAUBER ROBERT | Chief Executive Officer | Option Exercise | 1,167 | $163,410 |
| 2025-11-03 | FAUBER ROBERT | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 1,167 | $558,935 |
| 2025-10-28 | FAUBER ROBERT | Chief Executive Officer | Option Exercise | 546 | $61,884 |
| 2025-10-28 | STEELE RICHARD G | General Counsel | Sale | 26 | $12,841 |
| 2025-10-28 | FAUBER ROBERT | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 546 | $269,669 |
| 2025-10-15 | FAUBER ROBERT | Chief Executive Officer | Option Exercise | 281 | $27,473 |
| 2025-10-15 | FAUBER ROBERT | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 415 | $199,652 |
| 2025-10-01 | FAUBER ROBERT | Chief Executive Officer | Option Exercise | 280 | $27,379 |
| 2025-10-01 | FAUBER ROBERT | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 414 | $197,880 |
| 2025-09-15 | FAUBER ROBERT | Chief Executive Officer | Option Exercise | 281 | $27,459 |
| 2025-09-15 | FAUBER ROBERT | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 415 | $212,750 |
| 2025-09-05 | VAN SAUN BRUCE W | Director | Stock Award | 16 | $8,102 |
| 2025-09-05 | FORLENZA VINCENT A | Director | Stock Award | 11 | $5,560 |
| 2025-09-05 | SEIDMAN LESLIE F | Director | Stock Award | 15 | $7,565 |
| 2025-09-05 | MINAYA JOSE | Director | Stock Award | 3 | $1,832 |
FAUBER ROBERT
Chief Executive Officer
2025-11-03
1,167 shares
·
$163,410
FAUBER ROBERT
Chief Executive Officer
2025-11-03
1,167 shares
·
$558,935
FAUBER ROBERT
Chief Executive Officer
2025-10-28
546 shares
·
$61,884
STEELE RICHARD G
General Counsel
2025-10-28
26 shares
·
$12,841
FAUBER ROBERT
Chief Executive Officer
2025-10-28
546 shares
·
$269,669
FAUBER ROBERT
Chief Executive Officer
2025-10-15
281 shares
·
$27,473
FAUBER ROBERT
Chief Executive Officer
2025-10-15
415 shares
·
$199,652
FAUBER ROBERT
Chief Executive Officer
2025-10-01
280 shares
·
$27,379
FAUBER ROBERT
Chief Executive Officer
2025-10-01
414 shares
·
$197,880
FAUBER ROBERT
Chief Executive Officer
2025-09-15
281 shares
·
$27,459
FAUBER ROBERT
Chief Executive Officer
2025-09-15
415 shares
·
$212,750
VAN SAUN BRUCE W
Director
2025-09-05
16 shares
·
$8,102
FORLENZA VINCENT A
Director
2025-09-05
11 shares
·
$5,560
SEIDMAN LESLIE F
Director
2025-09-05
15 shares
·
$7,565
MINAYA JOSE
Director
2025-09-05
3 shares
·
$1,832
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
20 analysts
Mizuho
2025-10-28
Neutral
Neutral
JP Morgan
2025-10-23
Overweight
Overweight
Stifel
2025-10-23
Hold
Hold
Wells Fargo
2025-10-23
Overweight
Overweight
BMO Capital
2025-10-23
Market Perform
Market Perform
Raymond James
2025-10-17
Underperform
Market Perform
BMO Capital
2025-10-16
Market Perform
Market Perform
Mizuho
2025-10-16
Neutral
Neutral
Evercore ISI Group
2025-10-14
Outperform
Outperform
JP Morgan
2025-10-14
Overweight
Overweight
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning MCO from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.