ICE
BULLISH
$152.07
Live
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. · NYSE
Target $192.44
(+26.5%)
$142.29
52W Range
$189.35
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Nov 16, 2025
Market cap
$87.07B
P/E
27.7
ROE
11.5%
Profit margin
32.4%
Debt/Equity
0.68
Dividend yield
1.26%
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
88%
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) presents a compelling investment case supported by strong profitability, consistent earnings growth, and favorable valuation relative to peers despite near-term price underperformance. The company has delivered 23 out of 25 earnings beats over the past six years, with accelerating YoY EPS growth of 10.3% and a robust 24.6% year-over-year earnings increase. While insider selling raises a cautionary note, the stock trades at a forward P/E of 22.56—below its historical average and at a discount to sector leaders—amid improving momentum and a $192.44 analyst target implying 26.5% upside. ICE’s dominant margin profile, disciplined capital allocation, and exposure to structural trends in data and markets position it well for sustained outperformance.
Key Strengths
Exceptional operating margin of 49.07%, among the highest in the Financial Services sector, reflecting pricing power and cost discipline
Gross margin of 100.00%, indicative of a highly scalable, asset-light business model in data and exchange services
Earnings growth accelerating with 24.6% YoY and 24.2% Q/Q growth, outpacing sector average revenue growth of 24.18%
Forward P/E of 22.56 trades at a discount to its own historical levels and peers like MMC and APO despite superior profitability
Strong analyst consensus with a $192.44 target price, implying 26.5% upside from current levels
Key Risks
Insider selling activity: $46.32M in sales over the last 6 months with zero buys, suggesting lack of confidence among executives
High current valuation on trailing P/E of 27.70, above sector average P/E of 20.60, creating multiple expansion risk
Weak liquidity profile: current ratio of 1.01 and extremely low quick ratio of 0.03 indicate potential near-term cash conversion pressure
Revenue growth of 2.60% YoY lags peer group and sector average, raising concerns about top-line scalability
Missing key financial data (EV, debt, cash, shares outstanding) limits full credit and leverage risk assessment
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$192.44
+26.5% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
78
Strong
78
86
90
65
72
AI Verdict
ICE scores highly across profitability, growth trajectory, and valuation discount to peers, offsetting modest revenue growth and recent insider selling; the stock’s 26.5% implied upside from the $192.44 target and strong earnings consistency support a bullish stance within the Financial Services landscape.
Key drivers: Superior margin structure and ROE matching peer leaders, Accelerating earnings growth and strong earnings surprise history, Attractive forward valuation relative to sector and performance
Confidence
90%
Value
78/100
Despite high revenue and earnings multiples, ICE’s profitability (49.07% operating margin) and cash flow generation justify a premium versus peers like USB and PNC, though it trades below growth-adjusted leaders like APO.
Positives
- Forward P/E of 22.56 is below trailing P/E of 27.70 and offers a discount to sector average P/E of 20.60 given superior margins
- Price/Sales of 8.93 is high but justified by 100% gross margins and recurring data revenue
Watchpoints
- Trailing P/E of 27.70 is elevated versus sector average of 20.60, increasing sensitivity to multiple contraction
- Lack of EV/EBITDA and EV/Revenue data prevents full enterprise valuation assessment
Future
86/100
While price momentum has been weak over 6M (-13.2%) and 1Y (-1.7%), the sharp earnings acceleration and positive earnings surprises signal a potential inflection, supported by strong data and exchange volume tailwinds.
Positives
- Earnings growth of 24.6% YoY and 24.2% Q/Q significantly outpaces sector average revenue growth of 24.18%
- Analyst target of $192.44 implies strong conviction in continued outperformance
Watchpoints
- Revenue growth of only 2.60% YoY suggests limited top-line expansion despite earnings leverage
- Missing Q/Q revenue growth and forward guidance limits visibility into near-term momentum
Past
90/100
ICE has demonstrated exceptional earnings consistency and margin stability over six years, with 5Y returns of +62.6% underscoring long-term value creation, even as short-term price action has lagged.
Positives
- 23 of the last 25 quarters beat EPS estimates, with an average surprise of 3.53% over the last four
- Consistent profitability with operating margin above 49% and ROE of 11.49% matching PNC and USB
Watchpoints
- One recent earnings miss in Q1 2023 and flat performance in Q2 2024 highlight occasional volatility
- 1Y return of -1.7% underperforms sector leaders despite strong fundamentals
Health
65/100
While leverage is manageable relative to peers like MMC (1.40) and APO (0.95), the near-zero quick ratio is a red flag compared to sector norms, suggesting potential working capital inefficiencies.
Positives
- Debt/Equity of 0.68 is below sector average of 0.72, indicating conservative leverage
- Profit margins and ROE suggest efficient use of capital despite moderate ROA
Watchpoints
- Current ratio of 1.01 and quick ratio of 0.03 signal severe liquidity constraints and reliance on receivables
- Missing total debt and cash data raises transparency concerns and limits cash runway analysis
Dividend
72/100
The dividend is well-covered and modestly yielding, aligning with ICE’s reinvestment priorities in data and technology, though it offers less income appeal than traditional financial peers.
Positives
- Dividend yield of 1.26% with a sustainable 34.43% payout ratio, leaving room for growth
- Consistent annual payout indicates capital return discipline
Watchpoints
- Lack of 5-year yield average and ex-dividend date limits assessment of dividend growth trajectory
- Yield is below sector average income offerings like USB and PNC
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$152.07
Analyst Target
$192.44
Upside/Downside
+26.5%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for ICE and closest competitors.
Updated 2025-11-14
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ICE
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.
Primary
|
+62.6% | +50.6% | -1.7% | -13.2% | -3.4% | +2.1% |
|
MCO
Moody's Corporation
Peer
|
+81.5% | +64.7% | +0.2% | -1.8% | +0.2% | -1.7% |
|
USB
U.S. Bancorp
Peer
|
+21.0% | +82.1% | +52.1% | +23.8% | +11.3% | +1.8% |
|
PNC
The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc.
Peer
|
+41.8% | +89.3% | +24.6% | +7.5% | -2.0% | +1.9% |
|
MMC
Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.
Peer
|
+70.2% | +16.8% | -16.1% | -20.3% | -10.3% | +1.5% |
ICE
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.
Primary
5Y
+62.6%
3Y
+50.6%
1Y
-1.7%
6M
-13.2%
1M
-3.4%
1W
+2.1%
MCO
Moody's Corporation
Peer
5Y
+81.5%
3Y
+64.7%
1Y
+0.2%
6M
-1.8%
1M
+0.2%
1W
-1.7%
USB
U.S. Bancorp
Peer
5Y
+21.0%
3Y
+82.1%
1Y
+52.1%
6M
+23.8%
1M
+11.3%
1W
+1.8%
PNC
The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+41.8%
3Y
+89.3%
1Y
+24.6%
6M
+7.5%
1M
-2.0%
1W
+1.9%
MMC
Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+70.2%
3Y
+16.8%
1Y
-16.1%
6M
-20.3%
1M
-10.3%
1W
+1.5%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
27.7
Forward P/E
22.56
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
3.03
P/S Ratio
8.93
EV/Revenue
10.81
EV/EBITDA
17.37
Market Cap
$87.07B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
32.43%
Operating Margin
49.07%
Gross Margin
100.0%
ROE
11.49%
ROA
2.19%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+2.6%
Earnings Growth
+24.6%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+24.2%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.68
Moderate
Current Ratio
1.01
Good
Quick Ratio
0.03
Poor
Cash/Share
$1.49
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-05
$N/A
2025-10-30
$1.71
+6.4% surprise
2025-07-31
$1.48
+3.2% surprise
2025-05-01
$1.72
+1.0% surprise
Financial Services Sector Comparison
Comparing ICE against 975 companies in the Financial Services sector
(156 bullish, 425 neutral, 394 bearish)
P/E Ratio
27.7
This Stock
vs
34.86
Sector Avg
-20.5%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
11.49%
This Stock
vs
0.29%
Sector Avg
+3832.4%
(Excellent)
Profit Margin
32.43%
This Stock
vs
88.25%
Sector Avg
-63.3%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.68
This Stock
vs
1.32
Sector Avg
-48.4%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
2.6%
This Stock
vs
33.02%
Sector Avg
-92.1%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
1.01
This Stock
vs
3.69
Sector Avg
-72.5%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ICE
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.
|
BULLISH | $87.07B | 27.7 | 11.5% | 32.4% | $152.07 | |
|
MCO
Moody's Corporation
|
BULLISH | $87.55B | 38.61 | 54.9% | 29.9% | $479.48 | Compare |
|
USB
U.S. Bancorp
|
BULLISH | $87.58B | 12.2 | 12.2% | 28.7% | $56.37 | Compare |
|
PNC
The PNC Financial Services...
|
NEUTRAL | $84.86B | 12.66 | 12.2% | 31.1% | $209.88 | Compare |
|
MMC
Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $90.07B | 21.92 | 28.7% | 15.6% | $182.81 | Compare |
ICE
Intercontinental...
BULLISH
Mkt Cap
$87.1B
P/E
27.7
ROE
11.5%
Price
$152.07
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-11 | SURDYKOWSKI ANDREW J | General Counsel | Sale | 2,081 | $314,231 |
| 2025-10-08 | KAPANI MAYUR | Chief Technology Officer | Sale | 10,082 | $1,601,862 |
| 2025-10-08 | KAPANI MAYUR | Chief Technology Officer | Option Exercise | 5,345 | $306,322 |
| 2025-09-22 | HILL JONATHAN HOPKIN | Director | Stock Award | 1,381 | - |
| 2025-09-17 | WILLIAMS STUART GLEN | Chief Operating Officer | Sale | 939 | $161,542 |
| 2025-09-12 | FOLEY DOUGLAS | Officer | Sale | 1,600 | $280,992 |
| 2025-09-04 | SPRIESER JUDITH A. | Director | Sale | 2,900 | $506,086 |
| 2025-09-04 | MARTIN LYNN C | Officer | Gift | 143 | - |
| 2025-08-27 | FAROOQUI DURIYA M | Director | Sale | 2,036 | $363,100 |
| 2025-08-26 | SURDYKOWSKI ANDREW J | General Counsel | Sale | 3,850 | $686,570 |
| 2025-08-26 | SURDYKOWSKI ANDREW J | General Counsel | Option Exercise | 1,770 | $88,518 |
| 2025-08-22 | TIRINNANZI MARTHA A | Director | Sale | 610 | $109,654 |
| 2025-08-20 | GARDINER WARREN | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 1,570 | $280,166 |
| 2025-08-12 | SPRECHER JEFFREY C | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 216,575 | $39,653,199 |
| 2025-08-12 | SPRECHER JEFFREY C | Chief Executive Officer | Option Exercise | 66,575 | $3,815,413 |
SURDYKOWSKI ANDREW J
General Counsel
2025-11-11
2,081 shares
·
$314,231
KAPANI MAYUR
Chief Technology Officer
2025-10-08
10,082 shares
·
$1,601,862
KAPANI MAYUR
Chief Technology Officer
2025-10-08
5,345 shares
·
$306,322
HILL JONATHAN HOPKIN
Director
2025-09-22
1,381 shares
WILLIAMS STUART GLEN
Chief Operating Officer
2025-09-17
939 shares
·
$161,542
FOLEY DOUGLAS
Officer
2025-09-12
1,600 shares
·
$280,992
SPRIESER JUDITH A.
Director
2025-09-04
2,900 shares
·
$506,086
MARTIN LYNN C
Officer
2025-09-04
143 shares
FAROOQUI DURIYA M
Director
2025-08-27
2,036 shares
·
$363,100
SURDYKOWSKI ANDREW J
General Counsel
2025-08-26
3,850 shares
·
$686,570
SURDYKOWSKI ANDREW J
General Counsel
2025-08-26
1,770 shares
·
$88,518
TIRINNANZI MARTHA A
Director
2025-08-22
610 shares
·
$109,654
GARDINER WARREN
Chief Financial Officer
2025-08-20
1,570 shares
·
$280,166
SPRECHER JEFFREY C
Chief Executive Officer
2025-08-12
216,575 shares
·
$39,653,199
SPRECHER JEFFREY C
Chief Executive Officer
2025-08-12
66,575 shares
·
$3,815,413
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
16 analysts
Barclays
2025-10-31
Overweight
Overweight
JP Morgan
2025-10-31
Overweight
Overweight
TD Cowen
2025-10-31
Buy
Buy
UBS
2025-10-31
Buy
Buy
Morgan Stanley
2025-10-21
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Raymond James
2025-10-13
Outperform
Strong Buy
Barclays
2025-10-08
Overweight
Overweight
Morgan Stanley
2025-10-01
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
JP Morgan
2025-09-25
Overweight
Overweight
Barclays
2025-08-01
Overweight
Overweight
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning ICE from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.