MFA
NEUTRAL
$10.17
Live
MFA Financial, Inc. · NYSE
Target $15.1
(+48.5%)
$8.78
52W Range
$10.57
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Apr 30, 2026
Market cap
$1.04B
P/E
7.82
ROE
9.6%
Profit margin
54.3%
Debt/Equity
6.01
Dividend yield
14.16%
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
85%
MFA presents a classic 'value trap' profile, characterized by a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 and an unsustainable dividend payout ratio of 110.77%. While the stock trades at a deep discount to book value (0.57x) and significantly below its Graham Number ($22.93), the underlying financial health is fragile. High leverage (Debt/Equity 6.01) and a severely bearish technical trend (10/100) offset the attractive valuation metrics. The significant gap between the growth-based intrinsic value ($9.10) and the defensive Graham Number suggests high volatility and risk in asset valuation.
Key Strengths
Deep discount to book value (0.57x)
Low P/E ratio (7.82) relative to sector averages
Exceptional year-over-year revenue growth (111.30%)
High current dividend yield (14.16%)
Positive short-term price momentum (6M Change +22.4%)
Key Risks
Unsustainable dividend payout ratio (110.77%) indicating potential cuts
Weak operational health as evidenced by Piotroski F-Score of 3/9
High financial leverage with Debt/Equity at 6.01
Strongly bearish technical trend (10/100)
Inconsistent earnings track record with only 1 of the last 4 quarters beating estimates
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$11.5
+13.1% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
51
Moderate
88
55
60
20
30
AI Verdict
Speculative Value
Key drivers: Deep P/B discount, Poor F-Score, Dividend instability, High leverage
Confidence
80%
Value
88/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- P/B of 0.57
- P/E of 7.82
- Price well below Graham Number ($22.93)
Watchpoints
- Price slightly above growth-based intrinsic value ($9.10)
Future
55/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Triple-digit revenue growth (YoY and Q/Q)
Watchpoints
- High PEG ratio (2.48) suggesting growth is expensive relative to earnings
Past
60/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Strong 1Y (+19.6%) and 6M (+22.4%) price returns
Watchpoints
- History of significant earnings misses (e.g., 2020-06-16)
Health
20/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- High current ratio (40.07)
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score 3/9 (Weak)
- Debt/Equity 6.01 (High risk)
Dividend
30/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Very high yield (14.16%)
Watchpoints
- Payout ratio > 100% (110.77%)
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$10.17
Analyst Target
$15.1
Upside/Downside
+48.5%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for MFA and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-04-29
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
MFA
MFA Financial, Inc.
Primary
|
+12.3% | +47.1% | +19.6% | +22.4% | +9.6% | -0.4% |
|
MMI
Marcus & Millichap, Inc.
Peer
|
-13.5% | -6.4% | -7.5% | -3.3% | +6.9% | -0.8% |
|
BFS
Saul Centers, Inc.
Peer
|
+35.2% | -8.1% | -6.4% | -1.2% | +1.6% | -1.1% |
|
EXPI
eXp World Holdings, Inc.
Peer
|
-84.6% | -47.3% | -31.9% | -44.3% | -5.8% | +1.0% |
|
DEA
Easterly Government Properties, Inc.
Peer
|
-37.7% | -14.6% | +25.7% | +12.0% | +7.0% | +0.4% |
MFA
MFA Financial, Inc.
Primary
5Y
+12.3%
3Y
+47.1%
1Y
+19.6%
6M
+22.4%
1M
+9.6%
1W
-0.4%
MMI
Marcus & Millichap, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-13.5%
3Y
-6.4%
1Y
-7.5%
6M
-3.3%
1M
+6.9%
1W
-0.8%
BFS
Saul Centers, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+35.2%
3Y
-8.1%
1Y
-6.4%
6M
-1.2%
1M
+1.6%
1W
-1.1%
EXP
eXp World Holdings, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-84.6%
3Y
-47.3%
1Y
-31.9%
6M
-44.3%
1M
-5.8%
1W
+1.0%
DEA
Easterly Government Properties, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-37.7%
3Y
-14.6%
1Y
+25.7%
6M
+12.0%
1M
+7.0%
1W
+0.4%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
7.82
Forward P/E
6.8
PEG Ratio
2.48
P/B Ratio
0.57
P/S Ratio
3.19
EV/Revenue
36.32
EV/EBITDA
N/A
Market Cap
$1.04B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
54.33%
Operating Margin
61.66%
Gross Margin
89.72%
ROE
9.63%
ROA
1.45%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+111.3%
Earnings Growth
N/A
Q/Q Revenue Growth
+149.05%
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+819.3%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
6.01
High debt
Current Ratio
40.07
Strong
Quick Ratio
39.32
Excellent
Cash/Share
$2.09
Financial Statement Flow
Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025
Revenue
$0.1B
Net Margin
66.8%
Total Assets
$13.0B
Liabilities
$11.2B
Equity
$1.8B
Debt/Equity
6.14x
Operating CF
$0.0B
Free Cash Flow
$0.0B
FCF Yield
100%
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-05-05
$N/A
2026-02-18
$0.42
+64.5% surprise
2025-11-06
$0.2
-27.2% surprise
2025-08-06
$0.24
-18.7% surprise
Real Estate Sector Comparison
Comparing MFA against 197 companies in the Real Estate sector
(9 bullish, 41 neutral, 147 bearish)
P/E Ratio
7.82
This Stock
vs
40.06
Sector Avg
-80.5%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
9.63%
This Stock
vs
-28.9%
Sector Avg
-133.3%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
54.33%
This Stock
vs
11.67%
Sector Avg
+365.4%
(Superior)
Debt to Equity
6.01
This Stock
vs
2.39
Sector Avg
+151.6%
(Higher)
Revenue Growth
111.3%
This Stock
vs
14310.31%
Sector Avg
-99.2%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
40.07
This Stock
vs
8.76
Sector Avg
+357.5%
(Stronger)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
MFA
MFA Financial, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $1.04B | 7.82 | 9.6% | 54.3% | $10.17 | |
|
MMI
Marcus & Millichap, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $1.07B | - | -0.3% | -0.3% | $28.01 | Compare |
|
BFS
Saul Centers, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $1.08B | 27.63 | 10.3% | 13.8% | $31.5 | Compare |
|
EXPI
eXp World Holdings, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $964.69M | - | -10.1% | -0.5% | $5.99 | Compare |
|
DEA
Easterly Government...
|
BEARISH | $1.12B | 105.32 | 0.8% | 3.2% | $23.17 | Compare |
MFA
MFA Financial, Inc.
NEUTRAL
Mkt Cap
$1.0B
P/E
7.8
ROE
9.6%
Price
$10.17
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-15 | GOODMAN LAURIE S | Director | Stock Award | 3,473 | - |
| 2026-01-15 | JOSEPHS ROBIN | Director | Stock Award | 3,473 | - |
| 2026-01-08 | SCHWARTZ HAROLD EDWARD J.D. | Officer | Stock Award | 117,396 | - |
| 2026-01-08 | WULFSOHN BRYAN | President | Stock Award | 300,004 | - |
| 2026-01-08 | SEEMUNGAL NATASHA | Officer | Stock Award | 21,745 | - |
| 2026-01-08 | LIN MEI | Officer | Stock Award | 21,745 | - |
| 2026-01-08 | ROPER MICHAEL CHARLES | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 69,576 | - |
| 2026-01-08 | SAMUELS LORI R | Officer | Stock Award | 69,576 | - |
| 2026-01-08 | KNUTSON CRAIG L | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 695,667 | - |
GOODMAN LAURIE S
Director
2026-01-15
3,473 shares
JOSEPHS ROBIN
Director
2026-01-15
3,473 shares
SCHWARTZ HAROLD EDWARD J.D.
Officer
2026-01-08
117,396 shares
WULFSOHN BRYAN
President
2026-01-08
300,004 shares
SEEMUNGAL NATASHA
Officer
2026-01-08
21,745 shares
LIN MEI
Officer
2026-01-08
21,745 shares
ROPER MICHAEL CHARLES
Chief Financial Officer
2026-01-08
69,576 shares
SAMUELS LORI R
Officer
2026-01-08
69,576 shares
KNUTSON CRAIG L
Chief Executive Officer
2026-01-08
695,667 shares
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
HOLD
5 analysts
RBC Capital
2026-03-05
Sector Perform
Sector Perform
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
2026-02-20
Market Perform
Market Perform
UBS
2025-11-18
Buy
Buy
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning MFA from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.