MGY
NEUTRAL
$30.24
Live
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation · NYSE
Target $33.89
(+12.1%)
$20.39
52W Range
$32.76
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Apr 30, 2026
Market cap
$5.78B
P/E
17.48
ROE
17.0%
Profit margin
24.8%
Debt/Equity
0.21
Dividend yield
2.03%
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
85%
MGY exhibits a stable financial foundation with a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 and an exceptionally clean balance sheet (Debt/Equity 0.21). However, the stock is trading at a significant premium to its Graham Number ($20.41) and Intrinsic Value ($12.11), suggesting overvaluation. While profitability margins and ROE far exceed sector averages, the company is currently facing negative revenue and earnings growth. The divergence between bullish analyst targets and bearish insider selling creates a conflicted outlook.
Key Strengths
Superior profitability with a 24.79% profit margin and 17.01% ROE
Very low leverage (Debt/Equity 0.21) compared to sector average (1.34)
Strong liquidity position with a current ratio of 1.54
Consistent track record of beating quarterly earnings estimates
Sustainable dividend payout ratio of 34.68%
Key Risks
Significant overvaluation relative to deterministic fair value models
Negative YoY earnings growth (-17.00%) and revenue growth (-2.80%)
Strongly bearish insider sentiment with CEO and CFO selling shares
Bearish technical trend (10/100 score)
High sensitivity to volatile energy commodity pricing
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$21.5
-28.9% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
55
Moderate
30
35
85
65
60
AI Verdict
Stable but Overvalued
Key drivers: High margins, Low debt, Negative growth, Price-to-Value gap
Confidence
90%
Value
30/100
Ref P/E, Graham Number
Positives
- P/E (17.48) is lower than sector average (31.18)
Watchpoints
- Price ($30.24) is ~48% above Graham Number ($20.41)
- Price is significantly above growth-based intrinsic value ($12.11)
Future
35/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Forward P/E (11.56) suggests expected earnings recovery
Watchpoints
- Negative YoY Revenue Growth (-2.80%)
- Negative YoY Earnings Growth (-17.00%)
Past
85/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Strong 5Y change (+196.5%)
- Consistent earnings beats in 3 of last 4 quarters
Watchpoints
- Recent Q/Q EPS decline
Health
65/100
Ref Piotroski F-Score, Debt/Equity
Positives
- Very low Debt/Equity ratio
- Healthy Current/Quick ratios
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates only stable, not strong, health
Dividend
60/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Conservative payout ratio (34.68%)
Watchpoints
- Modest yield (2.03%)
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$30.24
Analyst Target
$33.89
Upside/Downside
+12.1%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for MGY and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-04-29
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
MGY
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation
Primary
|
+196.5% | +54.7% | +45.7% | +33.2% | -5.8% | +3.2% |
|
CRC
California Resources Corporation
Peer
|
+225.4% | +81.0% | +89.0% | +38.2% | -3.3% | +3.2% |
|
KGS
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc.
Peer
|
+388.1% | +388.1% | +98.3% | +91.2% | +16.1% | +5.9% |
|
CNX
CNX Resources Corporation
Peer
|
+193.0% | +155.5% | +33.1% | +23.8% | -1.6% | +2.0% |
|
GLNG
Golar LNG Limited
Peer
|
+505.5% | +176.8% | +55.7% | +38.6% | +18.5% | -3.4% |
MGY
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation
Primary
5Y
+196.5%
3Y
+54.7%
1Y
+45.7%
6M
+33.2%
1M
-5.8%
1W
+3.2%
CRC
California Resources Corporation
Peer
5Y
+225.4%
3Y
+81.0%
1Y
+89.0%
6M
+38.2%
1M
-3.3%
1W
+3.2%
KGS
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+388.1%
3Y
+388.1%
1Y
+98.3%
6M
+91.2%
1M
+16.1%
1W
+5.9%
CNX
CNX Resources Corporation
Peer
5Y
+193.0%
3Y
+155.5%
1Y
+33.1%
6M
+23.8%
1M
-1.6%
1W
+2.0%
GLN
Golar LNG Limited
Peer
5Y
+505.5%
3Y
+176.8%
1Y
+55.7%
6M
+38.6%
1M
+18.5%
1W
-3.4%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
17.48
Forward P/E
11.56
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
2.83
P/S Ratio
4.41
EV/Revenue
4.33
EV/EBITDA
6.43
Market Cap
$5.78B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
24.79%
Operating Margin
29.62%
Gross Margin
80.66%
ROE
17.01%
ROA
9.59%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
-2.8%
Earnings Growth
-17.0%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
-2.75%
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-19.7%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.21
Low debt
Current Ratio
1.54
Good
Quick Ratio
1.53
Excellent
Cash/Share
$1.48
Financial Statement Flow
Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025
Revenue
$0.3B
Gross Margin
43.5%
Op. Margin
29.6%
Net Margin
21.6%
Total Assets
$2.9B
Liabilities
$0.9B
Equity
$1.9B
Debt/Equity
0.47x
Operating CF
$0.2B
CapEx
$-0.1B
Free Cash Flow
$0.1B
FCF Yield
43%
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-05-06
$N/A
2026-02-05
$0.38
+4.5% surprise
2025-10-29
$0.42
+1.6% surprise
2025-07-30
$0.42
+4.9% surprise
Energy Sector Comparison
Comparing MGY against 122 companies in the Energy sector
(12 bullish, 42 neutral, 68 bearish)
P/E Ratio
17.48
This Stock
vs
30.64
Sector Avg
-43.0%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
17.01%
This Stock
vs
3.47%
Sector Avg
+390.7%
(Excellent)
Profit Margin
24.79%
This Stock
vs
6.65%
Sector Avg
+272.9%
(Superior)
Debt to Equity
0.21
This Stock
vs
1.33
Sector Avg
-84.2%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
-2.8%
This Stock
vs
19.51%
Sector Avg
-114.3%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
1.54
This Stock
vs
2.24
Sector Avg
-31.5%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
MGY
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $5.78B | 17.48 | 17.0% | 24.8% | $30.24 | |
|
CRC
California Resources Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $5.74B | 15.6 | 10.1% | 10.7% | $64.74 | Compare |
|
KGS
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $5.89B | 74.96 | 6.3% | 6.2% | $66.71 | Compare |
|
CNX
CNX Resources Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $5.58B | 9.88 | 15.0% | 30.7% | $39.32 | Compare |
|
GLNG
Golar LNG Limited
|
BEARISH | $5.43B | 92.05 | 5.1% | 16.7% | $53.39 | Compare |
MGY
Magnolia Oil &...
NEUTRAL
Mkt Cap
$5.8B
P/E
17.5
ROE
17.0%
Price
$30.24
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | SZABO SHANDELL | Director | Sale | 11,731 | $375,169 |
| 2026-03-10 | DJEREJIAN EDWARD P | Director | Sale | 18,000 | $521,604 |
| 2026-03-09 | CORALES BRIAN M. | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 33,000 | $960,960 |
| 2026-03-09 | SMITH DAN F | Director | Sale | 18,000 | $522,216 |
| 2026-03-09 | STAVROS CHRISTOPHER G | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 119,954 | $3,513,213 |
| 2026-03-09 | YANG TIMOTHY D | Officer | Sale | 150,000 | $4,393,800 |
| 2026-03-09 | ACOSTA ARCILIA C | Director | Sale | 19,235 | $559,777 |
| 2026-03-02 | ACOSTA ARCILIA C | Director | Stock Award | 69 | - |
| 2026-02-05 | CORALES BRIAN M. | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 40,016 | - |
| 2026-02-05 | CORALES BRIAN M. | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 31,708 | - |
| 2026-02-05 | STAVROS CHRISTOPHER G | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 121,103 | - |
| 2026-02-05 | STAVROS CHRISTOPHER G | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 108,603 | - |
| 2026-02-05 | YANG TIMOTHY D | General Counsel | Stock Award | 42,122 | - |
| 2026-02-05 | YANG TIMOTHY D | General Counsel | Stock Award | 49,532 | - |
| 2025-12-01 | ACOSTA ARCILIA C | Director | Stock Award | 76 | - |
SZABO SHANDELL
Director
2026-03-30
11,731 shares
·
$375,169
DJEREJIAN EDWARD P
Director
2026-03-10
18,000 shares
·
$521,604
CORALES BRIAN M.
Chief Financial Officer
2026-03-09
33,000 shares
·
$960,960
SMITH DAN F
Director
2026-03-09
18,000 shares
·
$522,216
STAVROS CHRISTOPHER G
Chief Executive Officer
2026-03-09
119,954 shares
·
$3,513,213
YANG TIMOTHY D
Officer
2026-03-09
150,000 shares
·
$4,393,800
ACOSTA ARCILIA C
Director
2026-03-09
19,235 shares
·
$559,777
ACOSTA ARCILIA C
Director
2026-03-02
69 shares
CORALES BRIAN M.
Chief Financial Officer
2026-02-05
40,016 shares
CORALES BRIAN M.
Chief Financial Officer
2026-02-05
31,708 shares
STAVROS CHRISTOPHER G
Chief Executive Officer
2026-02-05
121,103 shares
STAVROS CHRISTOPHER G
Chief Executive Officer
2026-02-05
108,603 shares
YANG TIMOTHY D
General Counsel
2026-02-05
42,122 shares
YANG TIMOTHY D
General Counsel
2026-02-05
49,532 shares
ACOSTA ARCILIA C
Director
2025-12-01
76 shares
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
SEC Filings
Recent regulatory filings from the SEC EDGAR database
DEF 14A
10-K
8-K
10-Q
8-K
10-Q
8-K
8-K
10-Q
8-K
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR. AI summaries generated automatically.
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
18 analysts
Truist Securities
2026-04-27
Hold
Hold
Citigroup
2026-04-13
Neutral
Neutral
Wells Fargo
2026-04-10
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Roth Capital
2026-04-08
Buy
Neutral
Keybanc
2026-04-02
Overweight
Overweight
Citigroup
2026-03-31
Neutral
Neutral
Truist Securities
2026-03-24
Buy
Hold
Piper Sandler
2026-03-12
Neutral
Neutral
Piper Sandler
2026-03-05
Neutral
Neutral
UBS
2026-03-05
Buy
Buy
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning MGY from our newsroom.
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