MOS
BEARISH
$23.03
Live
The Mosaic Company · NYSE
Target $30.69
(+33.3%)
$22.74
52W Range
$38.23
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Apr 30, 2026
Market cap
$7.32B
P/E
13.55
ROE
4.8%
Profit margin
4.5%
Debt/Equity
0.43
Dividend yield
3.82%
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
85%
The Mosaic Company presents a classic 'value trap' profile, characterized by a stable Piotroski F-Score (6/9) and a highly attractive Graham Number ($38.16) contrasted against collapsing fundamentals. While the stock trades at a deep discount to book value (P/B 0.60), the technical trend is critically bearish (0/100) and the company is experiencing a severe earnings crisis with YoY EPS growth down 51.1%. Despite a healthy balance sheet (Debt/Equity 0.43), the consistent failure to meet earnings estimates and the proximity to 52-week lows suggest that the market is pricing in a structural decline in profitability.
Key Strengths
Deeply undervalued on a book value basis (P/B 0.60)
Strong balance sheet with low Debt/Equity ratio (0.43)
Stable financial health as indicated by Piotroski F-Score of 6/9
Positive profit margins relative to a negative sector average
Defensive fair value support indicated by the Graham Number ($38.16)
Key Risks
Severe earnings deterioration with YoY EPS growth of -51.1%
Poor earnings track record with only 1 beat in the last 4 quarters
Critically bearish technical momentum (0/100 trend score)
Low Quick Ratio (0.40) indicating potential liquidity constraints if inventory doesn't move
Significant negative earnings surprises (Average -23.32% over last 4 quarters)
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$18.5
-19.7% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
50
Moderate
85
20
15
70
60
AI Verdict
Value Trap
Key drivers: Collapsing EPS, Bearish Technicals, Low P/B Ratio, Stable Debt Levels
Confidence
90%
Value
85/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- P/B of 0.60
- P/E of 13.55 is well below sector average
- Current price is significantly below Graham Number
Watchpoints
- Intrinsic value based on growth is only $11.90
Future
20/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Modest revenue growth (5.6%)
Watchpoints
- EPS growth -51.1% YoY
- Consistent earnings misses
- Negative Q/Q EPS growth (-78.8%)
Past
15/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
- Negative 1Y, 3Y, and 5Y price performance
- Long-term downward trend in stock price
Health
70/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Piotroski F-Score 6/9
- Low Debt/Equity (0.43)
- Current Ratio > 1.0
Watchpoints
- Low Quick Ratio (0.40)
Dividend
60/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Sustainable payout ratio (51.76%)
- Decent yield (3.82%)
Watchpoints
- Dividend strength score is only 50/100
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$23.03
Analyst Target
$30.69
Upside/Downside
+33.3%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for MOS and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-04-29
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
MOS
The Mosaic Company
Primary
|
-26.8% | -42.4% | -21.5% | -18.2% | -7.9% | -6.1% |
|
CE
Celanese Corporation
Peer
|
-55.4% | -32.6% | +49.1% | +54.2% | +3.7% | +4.8% |
|
AXTA
Axalta Coating Systems Ltd.
Peer
|
+21.2% | +22.1% | -8.8% | +13.8% | +4.1% | +0.1% |
|
ICL
ICL Group Ltd
Peer
|
+12.9% | -0.5% | -16.4% | -15.8% | +6.5% | +6.3% |
|
EGO
Eldorado Gold Corporation
Peer
|
+200.5% | +165.1% | +58.7% | +18.2% | -8.6% | -6.5% |
MOS
The Mosaic Company
Primary
5Y
-26.8%
3Y
-42.4%
1Y
-21.5%
6M
-18.2%
1M
-7.9%
1W
-6.1%
CE
Celanese Corporation
Peer
5Y
-55.4%
3Y
-32.6%
1Y
+49.1%
6M
+54.2%
1M
+3.7%
1W
+4.8%
AXT
Axalta Coating Systems Ltd.
Peer
5Y
+21.2%
3Y
+22.1%
1Y
-8.8%
6M
+13.8%
1M
+4.1%
1W
+0.1%
ICL
ICL Group Ltd
Peer
5Y
+12.9%
3Y
-0.5%
1Y
-16.4%
6M
-15.8%
1M
+6.5%
1W
+6.3%
EGO
Eldorado Gold Corporation
Peer
5Y
+200.5%
3Y
+165.1%
1Y
+58.7%
6M
+18.2%
1M
-8.6%
1W
-6.5%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
13.55
Forward P/E
9.46
PEG Ratio
1.63
P/B Ratio
0.6
P/S Ratio
0.61
EV/Revenue
1.03
EV/EBITDA
5.52
Market Cap
$7.32B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
4.49%
Operating Margin
2.79%
Gross Margin
15.78%
ROE
4.83%
ROA
2.84%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+5.6%
Earnings Growth
N/A
Q/Q Revenue Growth
+5.6%
Q/Q Earnings Growth
N/A
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.43
Low debt
Current Ratio
1.31
Good
Quick Ratio
0.4
Poor
Cash/Share
$0.87
Financial Statement Flow
Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025
Revenue
$3.0B
Gross Margin
11.5%
Op. Margin
5.2%
Net Margin
-17.5%
Total Assets
$24.5B
Liabilities
$12.2B
Equity
$12.1B
Debt/Equity
1.01x
Operating CF
$-0.1B
CapEx
$-0.3B
Free Cash Flow
$-0.4B
FCF Yield
723%
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-05-11
$N/A
2026-02-24
$0.22
-50.5% surprise
2025-11-04
$1.04
+9.4% surprise
2025-08-05
$0.51
-28.9% surprise
Basic Materials Sector Comparison
Comparing MOS against 169 companies in the Basic Materials sector
(17 bullish, 66 neutral, 86 bearish)
P/E Ratio
13.55
This Stock
vs
38.64
Sector Avg
-64.9%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
4.83%
This Stock
vs
-5.54%
Sector Avg
-187.1%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
4.49%
This Stock
vs
-4.44%
Sector Avg
-200.9%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.43
This Stock
vs
0.84
Sector Avg
-48.6%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
5.6%
This Stock
vs
37.0%
Sector Avg
-84.9%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
1.31
This Stock
vs
4.77
Sector Avg
-72.4%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
MOS
The Mosaic Company
|
BEARISH | $7.32B | 13.55 | 4.8% | 4.5% | $23.03 | |
|
CE
Celanese Corporation
|
BEARISH | $7.27B | - | -22.5% | -12.2% | $65.0 | Compare |
|
AXTA
Axalta Coating Systems Ltd.
|
NEUTRAL | $7.17B | 16.32 | 21.3% | 8.8% | $33.62 | Compare |
|
ICL
ICL Group Ltd
|
BEARISH | $7.15B | 30.78 | 4.6% | 3.2% | $5.54 | Compare |
|
EGO
Eldorado Gold Corporation
|
BULLISH | $7.8B | 11.7 | 12.8% | 27.9% | $29.61 | Compare |
MOS
The Mosaic Company
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$7.3B
P/E
13.5
ROE
4.8%
Price
$23.03
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-09 | FLUGEL RUSSELL A | Officer | Stock Award | 5,545 | - |
| 2026-03-09 | BODINE BRUCE M | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 19,484 | - |
| 2026-03-09 | SWAGER KAREN A | Officer | Stock Award | 17,319 | - |
| 2026-03-09 | WANG YIJUN | Officer | Stock Award | 10,824 | - |
| 2026-03-09 | BAUER PHILIP EUGENE | General Counsel | Stock Award | 10,824 | - |
| 2026-03-09 | PRECOURT WALTER F. III | Officer | Option Exercise | 17,319 | $138,315 |
| 2026-01-02 | BAUER PHILIP EUGENE | General Counsel | Stock Award | 5,865 | - |
| 2025-11-11 | KUZENKO JODY LYNNE MARY | Director | Purchase | 685 | $17,488 |
FLUGEL RUSSELL A
Officer
2026-03-09
5,545 shares
BODINE BRUCE M
Chief Executive Officer
2026-03-09
19,484 shares
SWAGER KAREN A
Officer
2026-03-09
17,319 shares
WANG YIJUN
Officer
2026-03-09
10,824 shares
BAUER PHILIP EUGENE
General Counsel
2026-03-09
10,824 shares
PRECOURT WALTER F. III
Officer
2026-03-09
17,319 shares
·
$138,315
BAUER PHILIP EUGENE
General Counsel
2026-01-02
5,865 shares
KUZENKO JODY LYNNE MARY
Director
2025-11-11
685 shares
·
$17,488
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
SEC Filings
Recent regulatory filings from the SEC EDGAR database
DEF 14A
8-K
10-K
8-K
8-K
8-K
10-Q
8-K
10-Q
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR. AI summaries generated automatically.
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
HOLD
19 analysts
Wells Fargo
2026-04-21
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Scotiabank
2026-04-20
Sector Outperform
Sector Outperform
UBS
2026-03-26
Buy
Neutral
B of A Securities
2026-03-20
Buy
Neutral
CIBC
2026-03-17
Neutral
Neutral
Barclays
2026-03-03
Overweight
Equal-Weight
Scotiabank
2026-03-02
Sector Outperform
Sector Outperform
RBC Capital
2026-02-26
Sector Perform
Sector Perform
JP Morgan
2026-02-26
Neutral
Underweight
Scotiabank
2026-02-02
Sector Perform
Sector Outperform
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning MOS from our newsroom.
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