MSDL
BEARISH
$15.09
Live
Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund · NYSE
Target $15.57
(+3.2%)
$13.66
52W Range
$20.0
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Apr 30, 2026
Market cap
$1.29B
P/E
10.78
ROE
6.8%
Profit margin
30.7%
Debt/Equity
1.19
Dividend yield
11.93%
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
85%
MSDL presents a classic 'yield trap' profile, characterized by a stable but mediocre Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 and a critical lack of earnings growth. While the stock trades at a discount to book value (P/B 0.74) and below its Graham Number ($25.26), these value metrics are undermined by a catastrophic dividend payout ratio of 142.86% and a 43% year-over-year collapse in earnings. The technical trend is completely bearish (0/100), and the intrinsic value of $9.80 suggests the current price is unsupported by fundamental growth.
Key Strengths
Trading significantly below book value (P/B 0.74)
Very high current dividend yield of 11.93%
Strong operating margins (80.06%)
Price is well below the defensive Graham Number ($25.26)
Stable liquidity with a current ratio of 1.39
Key Risks
Unsustainable dividend payout ratio (142.86%) indicating a high risk of dividend cuts
Severe earnings contraction (-43% YoY and -44.4% Q/Q)
Negative revenue growth (-6.2% YoY)
Consistent failure to meet earnings estimates (0/4 beats in last 4 quarters)
Strongly bearish technical trend (0/100)
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$12.4
-17.8% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
35
Weak
60
15
30
50
20
AI Verdict
High-Yield Trap
Key drivers: Dividend sustainability, Earnings decay, Negative growth trajectory
Confidence
90%
Value
60/100
P/E 10.78, P/B 0.74, Graham $25.26
Positives
- P/B ratio 0.74
- Price below Graham Number
Watchpoints
- Price exceeds growth-based intrinsic value ($9.80)
Future
15/100
Severe YoY and Q/Q contraction across top and bottom lines
Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
- Revenue growth -6.20%
- Earnings growth -43.00%
Past
30/100
Long-term downward trend in EPS and price performance
Positives
- Maintained high profit margins
Watchpoints
- 1Y return -12.8%
- Consistent EPS misses over last 10 quarters
Health
50/100
Altman Z-Score not provided; Piotroski indicates stagnant health
Positives
- Current ratio 1.39
- Quick ratio 1.23
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score 4/9 (Stable/Mediocre)
Dividend
20/100
Dividend strength score 40/100
Positives
- High nominal yield (11.93%)
Watchpoints
- Payout ratio 142.86% (Earnings do not cover dividend)
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$15.09
Analyst Target
$15.57
Upside/Downside
+3.2%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for MSDL and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-04-29
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
MSDL
Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund
Primary
|
-6.5% | -6.5% | -12.8% | -5.9% | +10.5% | -0.8% |
|
TIGR
UP Fintech Holding Limited
Peer
|
-60.7% | +131.6% | +7.1% | -28.2% | +8.2% | +3.5% |
|
AMAL
Amalgamated Financial Corp.
Peer
|
+179.2% | +157.6% | +56.9% | +60.1% | +10.8% | +0.7% |
|
DSL
DoubleLine Income Solutions Fund
Peer
|
+6.1% | +32.5% | +3.6% | -1.4% | +3.6% | -1.2% |
|
PEBO
Peoples Bancorp Inc.
Peer
|
+32.9% | +61.6% | +33.3% | +24.4% | +10.5% | +1.8% |
MSD
Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund
Primary
5Y
-6.5%
3Y
-6.5%
1Y
-12.8%
6M
-5.9%
1M
+10.5%
1W
-0.8%
TIG
UP Fintech Holding Limited
Peer
5Y
-60.7%
3Y
+131.6%
1Y
+7.1%
6M
-28.2%
1M
+8.2%
1W
+3.5%
AMA
Amalgamated Financial Corp.
Peer
5Y
+179.2%
3Y
+157.6%
1Y
+56.9%
6M
+60.1%
1M
+10.8%
1W
+0.7%
DSL
DoubleLine Income Solutions Fund
Peer
5Y
+6.1%
3Y
+32.5%
1Y
+3.6%
6M
-1.4%
1M
+3.6%
1W
-1.2%
PEB
Peoples Bancorp Inc.
Peer
5Y
+32.9%
3Y
+61.6%
1Y
+33.3%
6M
+24.4%
1M
+10.5%
1W
+1.8%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
10.78
Forward P/E
8.34
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
0.74
P/S Ratio
3.24
EV/Revenue
8.31
EV/EBITDA
N/A
Market Cap
$1.29B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
30.73%
Operating Margin
80.06%
Gross Margin
100.0%
ROE
6.8%
ROA
5.03%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
-6.2%
Earnings Growth
-43.0%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
-35.67%
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-44.4%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
1.19
Moderate
Current Ratio
1.39
Good
Quick Ratio
1.23
Good
Cash/Share
$0.91
Financial Statement Flow
Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025
Revenue
$0.0B
Net Margin
87.9%
Total Assets
$3.9B
Liabilities
$2.2B
Equity
$1.7B
Debt/Equity
1.24x
Operating CF
$0.1B
Free Cash Flow
$0.1B
FCF Yield
100%
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-05-07
$N/A
2026-02-26
$0.49
-0.5% surprise
2025-11-06
$0.5
-0.6% surprise
2025-08-07
$0.5
-2.9% surprise
Financial Services Sector Comparison
Comparing MSDL against 915 companies in the Financial Services sector
(148 bullish, 394 neutral, 373 bearish)
P/E Ratio
10.78
This Stock
vs
34.57
Sector Avg
-68.8%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
6.8%
This Stock
vs
0.12%
Sector Avg
+5552.6%
(Excellent)
Profit Margin
30.73%
This Stock
vs
92.09%
Sector Avg
-66.6%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
1.19
This Stock
vs
1.29
Sector Avg
-7.3%
(Lower)
Revenue Growth
-6.2%
This Stock
vs
33.99%
Sector Avg
-118.2%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
1.39
This Stock
vs
3.02
Sector Avg
-54.0%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
MSDL
Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund
|
BEARISH | $1.29B | 10.78 | 6.8% | 30.7% | $15.09 | |
|
TIGR
UP Fintech Holding Limited
|
BULLISH | $1.27B | 7.65 | 22.4% | 31.7% | $7.11 | Compare |
|
AMAL
Amalgamated Financial Corp.
|
NEUTRAL | $1.26B | 12.41 | 13.9% | 33.4% | $42.31 | Compare |
|
DSL
DoubleLine Income Solutions Fund
|
BEARISH | $1.26B | 11.42 | -% | -% | $10.96 | Compare |
|
PEBO
Peoples Bancorp Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $1.25B | 11.5 | 9.2% | 25.6% | $34.74 | Compare |
MSDL
Morgan Stanley...
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$1.3B
P/E
10.8
ROE
6.8%
Price
$15.09
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-05 | DAY JEFF M | President | Purchase | 5,000 | $74,475 |
| 2026-03-03 | MILLER DAVID N | Director | Purchase | 10,000 | $146,850 |
| 2026-03-03 | MIZRACHI ORIT | President | Purchase | 1,000 | $14,490 |
| 2026-03-02 | OCCI MICHAEL JR. | Chief Executive Officer | Purchase | 7,000 | $104,098 |
| 2025-11-11 | KRISHNAN ASHWIN | Chief Investment Officer | Purchase | 3,000 | $50,160 |
| 2025-11-10 | FRANK BRUCE D | Director | Purchase | 600 | $9,843 |
DAY JEFF M
President
2026-03-05
5,000 shares
·
$74,475
MILLER DAVID N
Director
2026-03-03
10,000 shares
·
$146,850
MIZRACHI ORIT
President
2026-03-03
1,000 shares
·
$14,490
OCCI MICHAEL JR.
Chief Executive Officer
2026-03-02
7,000 shares
·
$104,098
KRISHNAN ASHWIN
Chief Investment Officer
2025-11-11
3,000 shares
·
$50,160
FRANK BRUCE D
Director
2025-11-10
600 shares
·
$9,843
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
SEC Filings
Recent regulatory filings from the SEC EDGAR database
8-K
DEF 14A
8-K
8-K
10-K
8-K
8-K
10-Q
8-K
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR. AI summaries generated automatically.
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
HOLD
7 analysts
UBS
2026-04-20
Neutral
Neutral
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
2026-04-16
Market Perform
Market Perform
UBS
2026-03-13
Neutral
Neutral
JP Morgan
2026-03-13
Neutral
Neutral
RBC Capital
2026-03-05
Sector Perform
Sector Perform
Wells Fargo
2026-03-02
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
2026-03-02
Market Perform
Market Perform
Wells Fargo
2026-01-07
Overweight
Equal-Weight
RBC Capital
2025-11-26
Outperform
Sector Perform
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
2025-11-10
Market Perform
Market Perform
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning MSDL from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.