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MSM

NEUTRAL
$100.75 Live
MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. · NYSE
Target $93.5 (-7.2%)
$74.3 52W Range $105.09
Overview AI Snowflake Price Valuation Profitability Growth Health Statements Peers Insiders SEC Filings

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Apr 30, 2026
Market cap
$5.63B
P/E
27.08
ROE
15.0%
Profit margin
5.4%
Debt/Equity
0.4
Dividend yield
3.45%

AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence
85%
MSM exhibits strong fundamental health with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and low leverage (Debt/Equity 0.40), yet it is severely overvalued relative to its deterministic baselines. The current price of $100.75 trades at a significant premium to both the Graham Number ($45.55) and the Intrinsic Value ($74.03). While the company has a consistent history of earnings beats, sluggish revenue growth (2.9%) and an unsustainable dividend payout ratio (92.47%) limit further upside. The stock is currently in a 'valuation trap' where strong balance sheet health is offset by expensive multiples and stagnant growth.

Key Strengths

Strong financial health indicated by a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9
Conservative leverage with a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.40
Consistent long-term earnings track record with frequent estimate beats
Healthy Return on Equity (ROE) of 15.00%
Strong recent 1-year price performance (+36.1%)

Key Risks

Severe overvaluation relative to Graham Number and Intrinsic Value
Unsustainable dividend payout ratio of 92.47%
Stagnant revenue growth (2.9% YoY) failing to justify the P/E multiple
High PEG ratio (2.47) indicating the stock is expensive relative to growth
Bearish insider sentiment and a technical trend score of 10/100
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$71.29
-29.2% below current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
53
Moderate
Value
30
Future
40
Past
85
Health
90
Dividend
20
AI Verdict
Fundamentally sound but fundamentally overpriced.
Key drivers: Piotroski F-Score, Dividend Payout Ratio, Price-to-Intrinsic Gap, Revenue Growth
Confidence
90%
Value
30/100

Ref P/E 27.08, PEG 2.47, Graham $45.55

Positives
  • Forward P/E is lower than trailing P/E
Watchpoints
  • Price is >100% above Graham Number
  • Price is ~35% above Intrinsic Value
  • PEG ratio > 2.0
Future
40/100

Ref Growth rates

Positives
  • Positive earnings growth (8.6% YoY)
Watchpoints
  • Very low revenue growth (2.9%)
  • Recent Q/Q EPS decline of 17.2%
Past
85/100

Ref Historical trends

Positives
  • Consistent earnings beats over 25 quarters
  • Strong 1-year price appreciation
Watchpoints
  • Recent earnings surprises have trended lower
Health
90/100

Ref Piotroski F-Score

Positives
  • Piotroski F-Score 8/9
  • Low Debt/Equity (0.40)
  • Current Ratio 1.73
Watchpoints
  • Quick Ratio (0.59) suggests high inventory dependency
Dividend
20/100

Ref Yield 3.45%, Payout 92.47%

Positives
  • Respectable yield of 3.45%
Watchpoints
  • Extreme payout ratio (92.47%) leaves no room for error or growth

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$100.75
Analyst Target
$93.5
Upside/Downside
-7.2%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for MSM and closest competitors.

Updated 2026-04-29
MSM
MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc.
Primary
5Y
+35.2%
3Y
+23.8%
1Y
+36.1%
6M
+23.3%
1M
+13.1%
1W
+4.2%
OMA
Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, S.A.B. de C.V.
Peer
5Y
+201.7%
3Y
+63.6%
1Y
+35.5%
6M
+16.1%
1M
-0.2%
1W
+0.0%
ACA
Arcosa, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+87.6%
3Y
+105.3%
1Y
+13.3%
6M
+24.7%
1M
+2.4%
1W
-1.5%
FCN
FTI Consulting, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+30.3%
3Y
-6.7%
1Y
+13.8%
6M
+16.7%
1M
+9.3%
1W
+2.6%
EQP
EquipmentShare.com Inc.
Peer
5Y
-37.0%
3Y
-37.0%
1Y
-37.0%
6M
-37.0%
1M
-26.8%
1W
-1.2%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
27.08
Forward P/E
20.38
PEG Ratio
2.47
P/B Ratio
4.06
P/S Ratio
1.47
EV/Revenue
1.6
EV/EBITDA
14.61
Market Cap
$5.63B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 5.42%
Operating Margin 7.33%
Gross Margin 40.78%
ROE 15.0%
ROA 8.24%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth +2.9%
Earnings Growth +8.6%
Q/Q Revenue Growth +2.92%
Q/Q Earnings Growth +8.1%

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
0.4
Low debt
Current Ratio
1.73
Good
Quick Ratio
0.59
Poor
Cash/Share
$0.83

Financial Statement Flow

Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q1 2026

Revenue
$0.9B
Gross Margin
41.1%
Op. Margin
7.3%
Net Margin
4.6%
Total Assets
$2.5B
Liabilities
$1.1B
Equity
$1.4B
Debt/Equity
0.77x
Operating CF
$0.1B
CapEx
$-0.0B
Free Cash Flow
$0.1B
FCF Yield
77%

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-07-01
$N/A
2026-04-01
$0.82
-1.9% surprise
2026-01-07
$0.99
+4.8% surprise
2025-10-23
$1.09
+6.3% surprise

Industrials Sector Comparison

Comparing MSM against 514 companies in the Industrials sector (42 bullish, 195 neutral, 277 bearish)
P/E Ratio
27.08
This Stock
vs
93.12
Sector Avg
-70.9% (Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
15.0%
This Stock
vs
0.92%
Sector Avg
+1536.5% (Excellent)
Profit Margin
5.42%
This Stock
vs
6.42%
Sector Avg
-15.6% (Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.4
This Stock
vs
2.75
Sector Avg
-85.3% (Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
2.9%
This Stock
vs
66.24%
Sector Avg
-95.6% (Slower)
Current Ratio
1.73
This Stock
vs
3.02
Sector Avg
-42.5% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

MSM MSC Industrial...
NEUTRAL
Mkt Cap
$5.6B
P/E
27.1
ROE
15.0%
Price
$100.75
OMAB Grupo...
NEUTRAL
Mkt Cap
$5.6B
P/E
18.3
ROE
48.8%
Price
$116.52
 Compare with MSM
ACA Arcosa, Inc.
NEUTRAL
Mkt Cap
$5.6B
P/E
38.6
ROE
5.9%
Price
$113.5
 Compare with MSM
FCN FTI Consulting, Inc.
BULLISH
Mkt Cap
$5.5B
P/E
22.4
ROE
13.6%
Price
$184.23
 Compare with MSM
EQPT EquipmentShare.com Inc.
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$5.5B
P/E
2050.0
ROE
0.3%
Price
$20.5
 Compare with MSM

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

JACOBSON MITCHELL LAWRENCE
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
Gift
2026-04-07
14,972 shares
PALADINO STEVEN
Director
Gift
2026-02-05
13,960 shares
SESERI RUDINA
Director
Sell
2026-02-02
1,800 shares · $156,294
SESERI RUDINA
Director
Stock Award
2026-01-23
745 shares
PURCELL RAHQUEL
Director
Stock Award
2026-01-23
745 shares
KAUFMANN MICHAEL C
Director
Stock Award
2026-01-23
745 shares
PALADINO STEVEN
Director
Stock Award
2026-01-23
745 shares
SESERI RUDINA
Director
Stock Award
2026-01-22
823 shares
AARNES ROBERT B
Director
Stock Award
2026-01-22
823 shares
PURCELL RAHQUEL
Director
Stock Award
2026-01-22
823 shares
KAUFMANN MICHAEL C
Director
Stock Award
2026-01-22
823 shares
PALADINO STEVEN
Director
Stock Award
2026-01-22
823 shares
JACOBSON MITCHELL LAWRENCE
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
Gift
2026-01-21
2,913 shares
ROCKETT JULIE VALSA
Officer
Stock Award
2025-12-17
20 shares
JACOBSON MITCHELL LAWRENCE
Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
Buy
2025-11-18
22,870 shares · $1,943,037
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

SEC Filings

Recent regulatory filings from the SEC EDGAR database

8-K
8-K
2026-04-15

MSM filed an 8-K on April 15, 2026, likely to announce its first-quarter financial results.

10-Q
10-Q
2026-04-01

MSM submitted its quarterly 10-Q filing on April 1, 2026. While the document includes a section for risk factors under Item 1A, no specific financial highlights or detailed risk disclosures were provided in the available excerpts.

8-K
8-K
2026-04-01

MSM likely reported its annual financial results or filed its Form 10-K on April 1, 2026.

8-K
8-K
2026-03-19

MSM filed an 8-K on March 19, 2026, likely to announce its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results.

8-K
8-K
2026-03-02

MSM filed an 8-K on March 2, 2026, likely to announce its annual financial results for the 2025 fiscal year.

8-K
8-K
2026-01-21
10-Q
10-Q
2026-01-07

MSM filed its 10-Q on January 7, 2026. The provided excerpt contains no specific financial highlights but notes the inclusion of risk factors under Item 1A.

8-K
8-K
2026-01-07

MSM filed an 8-K on January 7, 2026, likely reporting preliminary year-end financial results or a corporate governance update.

8-K
8-K
2026-01-05

MSM filed an 8-K on January 5, 2026, likely reporting preliminary year-end financial results or a corporate update.

8-K/A
8-K/A
2026-01-05

MSM filed an amendment to a previously submitted current report.

8-K
8-K
2025-12-18
8-K
8-K
2025-12-12
DEF 14A
DEF 14A
2025-12-11
8-K
8-K
2025-10-23
10-K
10-K
2025-10-23
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR. AI summaries generated automatically.

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
HOLD
6 analysts
Keybanc
2026-04-27
up
Sector Weight Overweight
JP Morgan
2026-02-06
down
Overweight Neutral

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning MSM from our newsroom.

Newest → oldest
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