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NATL

NEUTRAL
$44.47 Live
NCR Atleos Corporation · NYSE
Target $50.27 (+13.0%)
$23.56 52W Range $48.5

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Apr 30, 2026
Market cap
$3.28B
P/E
20.78
ROE
51.8%
Profit margin
3.7%
Debt/Equity
7.39
Dividend yield
N/A

AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence
85%
NATL presents a high-risk, high-reward profile characterized by a stable but mediocre Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 and a critical lack of liquidity. While the stock trades significantly below its growth-based intrinsic value ($63.13) and boasts an attractive forward P/E of 7.86, these metrics are overshadowed by a dangerous Debt/Equity ratio of 7.39 and a Current Ratio below 1.0. The company is experiencing explosive earnings growth, yet revenue growth remains stagnant at 4%, suggesting efficiency gains or accounting adjustments rather than market expansion. Overall, the valuation is attractive only if the company can successfully manage its massive leverage.

Key Strengths

Strong forward valuation with a Forward P/E of 7.86
Explosive earnings growth (YoY +97.5%, Q/Q +220.6%)
Very low Price-to-Sales ratio (0.75), suggesting undervaluation relative to revenue
High Return on Equity (51.84%), though heavily inflated by leverage
Positive analyst sentiment with a target price of $50.27

Key Risks

Extreme leverage with a Debt/Equity ratio of 7.39
Poor short-term liquidity (Current Ratio 0.96, Quick Ratio 0.53)
Thin net profit margins (3.72%) leaving little room for error
Bearish insider sentiment and technical trend (10/100)
Stagnant revenue growth (4%) despite high earnings growth
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$38.5
-13.4% below current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
43
Moderate
Value
65
Future
70
Past
60
Health
20
Dividend
0
AI Verdict
Speculative Value Trap Risk
Key drivers: Extreme Debt/Equity, Low Forward P/E, Liquidity Crunch, Earnings Acceleration
Confidence
90%
Value
65/100

Trades at a premium to defensive value (Graham) but a discount to growth intrinsic value.

Positives
  • P/S of 0.75
  • Forward P/E of 7.86
Watchpoints
  • Price far exceeds Graham Number ($16.23)
  • High P/B ratio of 8.13
Future
70/100

Growth is concentrated in the bottom line rather than top-line expansion.

Positives
  • Massive EPS growth
  • Positive analyst targets
Watchpoints
  • Low revenue growth (4%)
  • Competitive technology risks
Past
60/100

Strong 1-year performance is now facing a technical reversal.

Positives
  • 1Y return of +57%
  • Consistent earnings beats in recent quarters
Watchpoints
  • Recent technical trend is sharply bearish
Health
20/100

Balance sheet is highly distressed; solvency is the primary concern.

Positives
  • Piotroski F-Score is stable (4/9)
Watchpoints
  • Debt/Equity 7.39
  • Current Ratio < 1.0
  • Quick Ratio 0.53
Dividend
0/100

Company is prioritizing debt/operations over shareholder distributions.

Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
  • No dividend paid
  • 0/100 strength score

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$44.47
Analyst Target
$50.27
Upside/Downside
+13.0%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for NATL and closest competitors.

Updated 2026-04-29
NAT
NCR Atleos Corporation
Primary
5Y
+93.3%
3Y
+93.3%
1Y
+57.0%
6M
+20.4%
1M
+4.4%
1W
-2.2%
BL
BlackLine, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-60.8%
3Y
-23.5%
1Y
-12.2%
6M
-5.2%
1M
-7.6%
1W
+0.8%
GTL
GitLab Inc.
Peer
5Y
-81.3%
3Y
-41.3%
1Y
-54.8%
6M
-56.5%
1M
-16.1%
1W
-14.0%
SYN
Synaptics Incorporated
Peer
5Y
-37.3%
3Y
-12.7%
1Y
+69.7%
6M
+14.4%
1M
+16.9%
1W
+12.3%
DIO
Diodes Incorporated
Peer
5Y
-9.8%
3Y
-15.3%
1Y
+99.8%
6M
+43.6%
1M
+17.6%
1W
+7.3%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
20.78
Forward P/E
7.86
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
8.13
P/S Ratio
0.75
EV/Revenue
1.33
EV/EBITDA
7.07
Market Cap
$3.28B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 3.72%
Operating Margin 18.14%
Gross Margin 24.37%
ROE 51.84%
ROA 6.04%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth +4.0%
Earnings Growth +97.5%
Q/Q Revenue Growth +3.97%
Q/Q Earnings Growth +102.4%

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
7.39
High debt
Current Ratio
0.96
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.53
Poor
Cash/Share
$6.2

Financial Statement Flow

Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025

Revenue
$1.2B
Gross Margin
26.6%
Op. Margin
13.5%
Net Margin
7.2%
Total Assets
$5.7B
Liabilities
$5.3B
Equity
$0.4B
Debt/Equity
13.07x
Operating CF
$0.2B
CapEx
$-0.0B
Free Cash Flow
$0.2B
FCF Yield
84%

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-05-06
$N/A
2026-02-26
$1.09
+11.2% surprise
2025-11-05
$0.34
-51.4% surprise
2025-08-06
$0.93
+10.7% surprise

Technology Sector Comparison

Comparing NATL against 597 companies in the Technology sector (46 bullish, 214 neutral, 337 bearish)
P/E Ratio
20.78
This Stock
vs
80.99
Sector Avg
-74.3% (Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
51.84%
This Stock
vs
-31.59%
Sector Avg
-264.1% (Below Avg)
Profit Margin
3.72%
This Stock
vs
-11.8%
Sector Avg
-131.5% (Weaker)
Debt to Equity
7.39
This Stock
vs
0.77
Sector Avg
+856.8% (Higher)
Revenue Growth
4.0%
This Stock
vs
4143.28%
Sector Avg
-99.9% (Slower)
Current Ratio
0.96
This Stock
vs
3.7
Sector Avg
-74.0% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

OLIVER TIMOTHY CHARLES
Chief Executive Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-10
219,915 shares · $9,799,412
NUNEZ RICARDO JOSE
General Counsel
Stock Award
2026-03-10
34,928 shares · $1,556,392
MACKINNON STUART
Chief Operating Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-10
58,213 shares · $2,593,971
WAMSER R ANDREW JR
Chief Financial Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-10
45,277 shares · $2,017,543
HORNFECK TRACI
Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-10
8,977 shares · $400,015
BURSON ANDREA RICHARDS
Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-10
19,404 shares · $864,642
OLIVER TIMOTHY CHARLES
Chief Executive Officer
Option Exercise
2026-01-30
28,817 shares · $1,098,216
MACKINNON STUART
Chief Operating Officer
Stock Award
2026-01-30
17,183 shares
FRYMIRE MICHELLE MCKINNEY
Director
Sell
2025-11-19
8,786 shares · $307,686
OLIVER TIMOTHY CHARLES
Chief Executive Officer
Option Exercise
2025-11-10
172,711 shares · $2,941,268
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

SEC Filings

Recent regulatory filings from the SEC EDGAR database

DEF 14A
DEF 14A
2026-04-03

NATL filed a definitive proxy statement (DEF 14A) on April 3, 2026, providing shareholders with necessary information to vote on corporate matters at the upcoming annual meeting.

8-K
FORM 8-K
2026-03-12
8-K
FORM 8-K
2026-03-05
10-K
10-K
2026-02-27

NCR Atleos Corporation provides self-directed banking solutions, including ATM/ITM technology and "ATM as a Service," following its October 2023 spin-off from NCR Corporation. While specific financial metrics were not detailed in the provided excerpts, the company identifies strategic and technological risks as factors that could materially impact its financial condition and stock value.

8-K
FORM 8-K
2026-02-26

NATL filed an 8-K on February 26, 2026, likely to announce its quarterly financial results.

8-K
8-K
2026-02-26

NATL filed an 8-K on February 26, 2026, likely to announce its fourth quarter and full-year financial results.

8-K
8-K
2025-12-19
10-Q
10-Q
2025-11-06

NATL filed its 10-Q on November 6, 2025. While specific financial highlights were not provided in the excerpt, the filing includes a dedicated section for Risk Factors under Item 1A.

8-K
8-K
2025-11-05

NATL filed an 8-K on November 5, 2025, likely to announce its third-quarter financial results.

8-K
FORM 8-K
2025-10-28
8-K
8-K
2025-09-26
8-K
8-K
2025-09-03
10-Q
10-Q
2025-08-07
8-K
8-K
2025-08-06
8-K
8-K
2025-05-21
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR. AI summaries generated automatically.

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
NONE
3 analysts
Wedbush
2026-02-27
down
Outperform Neutral
DA Davidson
2026-02-27
down
Buy Neutral

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning NATL from our newsroom.

Newest → oldest
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