NGVC
BULLISH
$28.96
Live
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. · NYSE
Target $43.33
(+49.6%)
$23.47
52W Range
$61.22
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated May 01, 2026
Market cap
$667.04M
P/E
14.06
ROE
23.8%
Profit margin
3.6%
Debt/Equity
1.48
Dividend yield
2.07%
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
75%
NGVC presents a compelling value opportunity, characterized by a stable Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 and a current price ($28.96) that sits comfortably between its defensive Graham Number ($21.04) and its growth-based Intrinsic Value ($57.68). While the technical trend is currently bearish and revenue growth is stagnant at 1.6%, the company demonstrates exceptional operational efficiency with an ROE of 23.81% and a consistent track record of earnings beats. The valuation is significantly discounted relative to the Consumer Defensive sector average P/E of 35.93. Despite liquidity concerns indicated by a low quick ratio, the strong analyst consensus and earnings trajectory support a bullish long-term outlook.
Key Strengths
Attractive valuation with a P/E of 14.06 vs sector average of 35.93
High Return on Equity (ROE) of 23.81%
Consistent earnings surprise track record (3/4 beats in last 4 quarters)
Low Price-to-Sales ratio (0.50) suggesting undervaluation of revenue
Sustainable dividend with a low payout ratio of 24.76%
Key Risks
Severe liquidity risk indicated by a Quick Ratio of 0.21
Stagnant top-line growth (Revenue Growth YoY of only 1.60%)
Strongly bearish technical trend (0/100) and -41.3% 1-year price return
Moderate leverage with a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.48
Low insider buying activity providing no internal confidence signal
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$41.5
+43.3% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
67
Strong
85
55
70
50
75
AI Verdict
Undervalued Growth-Laggard
Key drivers: Deep valuation discount, Strong earnings beats, Poor short-term liquidity, Stagnant revenue
Confidence
80%
Value
85/100
Ref P/E 14.06, PEG 1.44, Graham $21.04
Positives
- P/E significantly below sector average
- Price is well below Intrinsic Value of $57.68
- Low P/S ratio
Watchpoints
- Trading above the conservative Graham Number
Future
55/100
Ref Revenue Growth 1.60%, Earnings Growth 14.00%
Positives
- Earnings growth at 14% YoY
- Strong analyst target price of $43.33
Watchpoints
- Revenue growth is nearly flat at 1.6%
Past
70/100
Ref 1Y Change -41.3%, 5Y Change +112.4%
Positives
- Strong 3Y and 5Y price appreciation
- Consistent history of beating EPS estimates
Watchpoints
- Sharp 1Y decline of 41.3%
Health
50/100
Ref Piotroski 6/9, Quick Ratio 0.21
Positives
- Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicates stability
Watchpoints
- Quick Ratio of 0.21 is critically low
- Debt/Equity of 1.48 is elevated
Dividend
75/100
Ref Yield 2.07%, Payout 24.76%
Positives
- Low payout ratio (24.76%) ensures safety
- Consistent yield of 2.07%
Watchpoints
- Yield is modest compared to high-yield defensive plays
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$28.96
Analyst Target
$43.33
Upside/Downside
+49.6%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for NGVC and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-04-30
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
NGVC
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.
Primary
|
+112.4% | +211.2% | -41.3% | -18.6% | +12.0% | +6.5% |
|
MAMA
Mama's Creations, Inc.
Peer
|
+558.5% | +767.2% | +146.8% | +44.9% | -0.6% | +2.9% |
|
GO
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.
Peer
|
-81.8% | -75.7% | -49.4% | -54.6% | +11.1% | -2.8% |
|
UDMY
Udemy, Inc.
Peer
|
-81.2% | -43.1% | -25.6% | -24.5% | +13.4% | +2.2% |
|
STKL
SunOpta Inc.
Peer
|
-55.2% | -22.8% | +65.9% | +13.9% | -0.1% | -0.1% |
NGV
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.
Primary
5Y
+112.4%
3Y
+211.2%
1Y
-41.3%
6M
-18.6%
1M
+12.0%
1W
+6.5%
MAM
Mama's Creations, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+558.5%
3Y
+767.2%
1Y
+146.8%
6M
+44.9%
1M
-0.6%
1W
+2.9%
GO
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.
Peer
5Y
-81.8%
3Y
-75.7%
1Y
-49.4%
6M
-54.6%
1M
+11.1%
1W
-2.8%
UDM
Udemy, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-81.2%
3Y
-43.1%
1Y
-25.6%
6M
-24.5%
1M
+13.4%
1W
+2.2%
STK
SunOpta Inc.
Peer
5Y
-55.2%
3Y
-22.8%
1Y
+65.9%
6M
+13.9%
1M
-0.1%
1W
-0.1%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
14.06
Forward P/E
12.99
PEG Ratio
1.44
P/B Ratio
3.03
P/S Ratio
0.5
EV/Revenue
0.72
EV/EBITDA
9.98
Market Cap
$667.04M
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
3.58%
Operating Margin
4.38%
Gross Margin
33.65%
ROE
23.81%
ROA
6.01%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+1.6%
Earnings Growth
+14.0%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
+1.62%
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+14.0%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
1.48
Moderate
Current Ratio
1.07
Good
Quick Ratio
0.21
Poor
Cash/Share
$1.01
Financial Statement Flow
Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025
Revenue
$0.3B
Gross Margin
29.5%
Op. Margin
4.5%
Net Margin
3.4%
Total Assets
$0.7B
Liabilities
$0.4B
Equity
$0.2B
Debt/Equity
2.04x
Operating CF
$0.0B
CapEx
$-0.0B
Free Cash Flow
$0.0B
FCF Yield
55%
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-05-07
$N/A
2026-02-05
$0.49
+6.5% surprise
2025-11-20
$0.51
+21.4% surprise
2024-08-08
$0.4
+185.7% surprise
Consumer Defensive Sector Comparison
Comparing NGVC against 193 companies in the Consumer Defensive sector
(11 bullish, 69 neutral, 113 bearish)
P/E Ratio
14.06
This Stock
vs
35.2
Sector Avg
-60.1%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
23.81%
This Stock
vs
-12.23%
Sector Avg
-294.7%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
3.58%
This Stock
vs
-7.24%
Sector Avg
-149.5%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
1.48
This Stock
vs
1.9
Sector Avg
-22.3%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
1.6%
This Stock
vs
98.67%
Sector Avg
-98.4%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
1.07
This Stock
vs
2.23
Sector Avg
-52.1%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
NGVC
Natural Grocers by Vitamin...
|
BULLISH | $667.04M | 14.06 | 23.8% | 3.6% | $28.96 | |
|
MAMA
Mama's Creations, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $645.17M | 132.25 | 12.8% | 3.1% | $15.87 | Compare |
|
GO
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.
|
BEARISH | $689.03M | - | -20.6% | -4.8% | $7.02 | Compare |
|
UDMY
Udemy, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $754.49M | 172.33 | 1.9% | 0.5% | $5.17 | Compare |
|
STKL
SunOpta Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $767.41M | 49.77 | 9.0% | 1.9% | $6.47 | Compare |
NGVC
Natural Grocers...
BULLISH
Mkt Cap
$667M
P/E
14.1
ROE
23.8%
Price
$28.96
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-05 | BUFFA SANDRA M | Director | Stock Award | 1,532 | - |
| 2026-03-05 | CERKOVNIK EDWARD | Director | Stock Award | 1,532 | - |
| 2026-03-05 | ROONEY DAVID C. | Director | Stock Award | 1,532 | - |
| 2025-11-03 | ISELY RAQUEL M | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Stock Award | 4,000 | - |
| 2025-11-03 | LINNANE ROBERT | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Stock Award | 2,000 | - |
BUFFA SANDRA M
Director
2026-03-05
1,532 shares
CERKOVNIK EDWARD
Director
2026-03-05
1,532 shares
ROONEY DAVID C.
Director
2026-03-05
1,532 shares
ISELY RAQUEL M
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
2025-11-03
4,000 shares
LINNANE ROBERT
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
2025-11-03
2,000 shares
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
STRONG_BUY
3 analysts
Freedom Broker
2026-02-13
Buy
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning NGVC from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.