NLY
NEUTRAL
$22.9
Live
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. · NYSE
Target $24.32
(+6.2%)
$18.43
52W Range
$24.52
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated May 01, 2026
Market cap
$16.78B
P/E
7.39
ROE
15.0%
Profit margin
87.4%
Debt/Equity
7.33
Dividend yield
12.23%
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
85%
NLY presents a classic 'value trap' profile, characterized by a very weak Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 and a high Debt/Equity ratio of 7.33. While the stock trades significantly below its Graham Number ($37.18) and Intrinsic Value ($91.45), the fundamental health is deteriorating. Explosive recent earnings growth is offset by a prohibitive PEG ratio of 32.03 and aggressive insider selling by the CEO, CFO, and President. The high dividend yield is attractive but precarious given the 90.32% payout ratio and poor health metrics.
Key Strengths
Significant undervaluation relative to Graham Number ($37.18)
Strong recent YoY earnings growth of 122.50%
High dividend yield of 12.23% providing immediate income
Consistent track record of beating quarterly earnings estimates
Low P/E ratio (7.39) compared to sector averages
Key Risks
Critical financial health weakness (Piotroski F-Score: 2/9)
Extreme leverage with a Debt/Equity ratio of 7.33
Strong bearish insider sentiment with C-suite executives selling shares
Unsustainable PEG ratio (32.03) suggesting growth is not priced efficiently
High dividend payout ratio (90.32%) leaves little margin for error
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$31.5
+37.6% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
56
Moderate
85
50
75
15
55
AI Verdict
High-Risk Value Play
Key drivers: Deep valuation discount, Severe balance sheet fragility, C-suite divestment
Confidence
90%
Value
85/100
P/E 7.39, Graham Number $37.18
Positives
- Price is well below Graham Number
- Low P/E ratio
Watchpoints
- High PEG ratio
Future
50/100
YoY Earnings Growth 122.50%
Positives
- Strong YoY revenue and earnings growth
Watchpoints
- Technical trend is 0/100 (Bearish)
- Growth may be unsustainable
Past
75/100
3Y Change +77.3%
Positives
- Strong 1Y price return (+33.7%)
- Consistent earnings beats
Watchpoints
- Historical volatility inherent to mREITs
Health
15/100
Piotroski F-Score indicates weak financial health
Positives
- High current ratio
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score 2/9
- Debt/Equity 7.33
Dividend
55/100
Yield 12.23%, Payout 90.32%
Positives
- Very high yield (12.23%)
Watchpoints
- Payout ratio > 90%
- Low dividend strength score (40/100)
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$22.9
Analyst Target
$24.32
Upside/Downside
+6.2%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for NLY and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-04-30
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
NLY
Annaly Capital Management, Inc.
Primary
|
+22.5% | +77.3% | +33.7% | +17.8% | +8.3% | +2.1% |
|
INVH
Invitation Homes Inc.
Peer
|
-4.9% | -5.4% | -13.7% | +2.2% | +13.6% | +4.5% |
|
KIM
Kimco Realty Corporation
Peer
|
+39.3% | +43.3% | +21.8% | +11.9% | +6.6% | +0.5% |
|
JLL
Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated
Peer
|
+83.5% | +145.7% | +50.5% | +9.5% | +15.0% | -1.2% |
|
MAA
Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.
Peer
|
-1.1% | -4.7% | -13.8% | +5.2% | +7.9% | +4.1% |
NLY
Annaly Capital Management, Inc.
Primary
5Y
+22.5%
3Y
+77.3%
1Y
+33.7%
6M
+17.8%
1M
+8.3%
1W
+2.1%
INV
Invitation Homes Inc.
Peer
5Y
-4.9%
3Y
-5.4%
1Y
-13.7%
6M
+2.2%
1M
+13.6%
1W
+4.5%
KIM
Kimco Realty Corporation
Peer
5Y
+39.3%
3Y
+43.3%
1Y
+21.8%
6M
+11.9%
1M
+6.6%
1W
+0.5%
JLL
Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated
Peer
5Y
+83.5%
3Y
+145.7%
1Y
+50.5%
6M
+9.5%
1M
+15.0%
1W
-1.2%
MAA
Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-1.1%
3Y
-4.7%
1Y
-13.8%
6M
+5.2%
1M
+7.9%
1W
+4.1%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
7.39
Forward P/E
7.69
PEG Ratio
32.03
P/B Ratio
1.16
P/S Ratio
6.71
EV/Revenue
54.31
EV/EBITDA
N/A
Market Cap
$16.78B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
87.39%
Operating Margin
81.0%
Gross Margin
97.49%
ROE
15.04%
ROA
1.82%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+48.8%
Earnings Growth
+122.5%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
+85.36%
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+127.5%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
7.33
High debt
Current Ratio
17.57
Strong
Quick Ratio
17.57
Excellent
Cash/Share
$3.21
Financial Statement Flow
Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q1 2026
Revenue
$0.3B
Net Margin
85.1%
Total Assets
$138.5B
Liabilities
$122.2B
Equity
$16.3B
Debt/Equity
7.51x
Operating CF
$-1.4B
CapEx
$-0.5B
Free Cash Flow
$-1.9B
FCF Yield
136%
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-07-22
$N/A
2026-04-21
$0.76
+2.3% surprise
2026-01-28
$0.74
+1.4% surprise
2025-10-22
$0.73
+1.3% surprise
Real Estate Sector Comparison
Comparing NLY against 204 companies in the Real Estate sector
(10 bullish, 42 neutral, 152 bearish)
P/E Ratio
7.39
This Stock
vs
40.56
Sector Avg
-81.8%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
15.04%
This Stock
vs
-27.72%
Sector Avg
-154.3%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
87.39%
This Stock
vs
11.81%
Sector Avg
+639.7%
(Superior)
Debt to Equity
7.33
This Stock
vs
2.39
Sector Avg
+206.2%
(Higher)
Revenue Growth
48.8%
This Stock
vs
13794.44%
Sector Avg
-99.6%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
17.57
This Stock
vs
8.6
Sector Avg
+104.3%
(Stronger)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
NLY
Annaly Capital Management, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $16.78B | 7.39 | 15.0% | 87.4% | $22.9 | |
|
INVH
Invitation Homes Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $16.87B | 29.31 | 6.1% | 21.6% | $28.14 | Compare |
|
KIM
Kimco Realty Corporation
|
BEARISH | $16.05B | 29.02 | 5.5% | 27.3% | $23.8 | Compare |
|
JLL
Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated
|
BULLISH | $15.85B | 20.84 | 10.9% | 3.0% | $341.55 | Compare |
|
MAA
Mid-America Apartment...
|
BEARISH | $15.47B | 34.41 | 7.6% | 20.2% | $129.71 | Compare |
NLY
Annaly Capital...
NEUTRAL
Mkt Cap
$16.8B
P/E
7.4
ROE
15.0%
Price
$22.9
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-25 | FINKELSTEIN DAVID L | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 325,797 | $7,496,589 |
| 2026-02-25 | WOLFE SERENA | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 83,106 | $1,912,269 |
| 2026-02-25 | CAMPBELL STEVEN FRANCIS | President | Stock Award | 85,319 | $1,963,190 |
| 2026-02-25 | CAMPBELL STEVEN FRANCIS | President | Sale | 26,491 | $604,790 |
| 2026-02-18 | FINKELSTEIN DAVID L | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 50,000 | $1,156,500 |
| 2026-02-18 | WOLFE SERENA | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 16,536 | $382,643 |
| 2026-02-18 | CAMPBELL STEVEN FRANCIS | President | Sale | 28,225 | $652,562 |
| 2026-01-30 | FINKELSTEIN DAVID L | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 152,976 | $3,519,978 |
| 2026-01-30 | WOLFE SERENA | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 45,632 | $1,049,992 |
| 2026-01-30 | CAMPBELL STEVEN FRANCIS | President | Stock Award | 52,151 | $1,199,995 |
| 2025-11-03 | FINKELSTEIN DAVID L | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 50,000 | $1,058,000 |
| 2025-11-03 | GREEN ANTHONY C. | Officer | Sale | 22,499 | $475,854 |
FINKELSTEIN DAVID L
Chief Executive Officer
2026-02-25
325,797 shares
·
$7,496,589
WOLFE SERENA
Chief Financial Officer
2026-02-25
83,106 shares
·
$1,912,269
CAMPBELL STEVEN FRANCIS
President
2026-02-25
85,319 shares
·
$1,963,190
CAMPBELL STEVEN FRANCIS
President
2026-02-25
26,491 shares
·
$604,790
FINKELSTEIN DAVID L
Chief Executive Officer
2026-02-18
50,000 shares
·
$1,156,500
WOLFE SERENA
Chief Financial Officer
2026-02-18
16,536 shares
·
$382,643
CAMPBELL STEVEN FRANCIS
President
2026-02-18
28,225 shares
·
$652,562
FINKELSTEIN DAVID L
Chief Executive Officer
2026-01-30
152,976 shares
·
$3,519,978
WOLFE SERENA
Chief Financial Officer
2026-01-30
45,632 shares
·
$1,049,992
CAMPBELL STEVEN FRANCIS
President
2026-01-30
52,151 shares
·
$1,199,995
FINKELSTEIN DAVID L
Chief Executive Officer
2025-11-03
50,000 shares
·
$1,058,000
GREEN ANTHONY C.
Officer
2025-11-03
22,499 shares
·
$475,854
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
11 analysts
UBS
2026-04-24
Neutral
Neutral
JP Morgan
2026-04-23
Overweight
Overweight
Jones Trading
2026-04-22
Buy
Buy
JP Morgan
2026-04-16
Overweight
Overweight
Piper Sandler
2026-04-02
Overweight
Overweight
RBC Capital
2026-02-05
Outperform
Outperform
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
2026-01-30
Outperform
Outperform
Wells Fargo
2026-01-30
Overweight
Overweight
Barclays
2026-01-30
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Jones Trading
2026-01-29
Buy
Buy
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning NLY from our newsroom.
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