NOG
BEARISH
$27.16
Live
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. · NYSE
Target $35.67
(+31.3%)
$20.18
52W Range
$32.62
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated May 01, 2026
Market cap
$2.87B
P/E
N/A
ROE
-29.8%
Profit margin
-32.4%
Debt/Equity
1.43
Dividend yield
6.63%
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
85%
NOG exhibits severe financial distress as evidenced by a critical Piotroski F-Score of 1/9, indicating a systemic decline in operational health. While the forward P/E of 6.57 and PEG of 0.65 suggest a valuation discount, this is offset by negative profit margins (-32.36%) and a dangerously low current ratio of 0.53. The dividend is fundamentally unsustainable with a payout ratio of 461.54%, suggesting the yield is not supported by earnings. Despite bullish analyst targets, the combination of negative ROE and bearish technical trends points to a high-risk profile.
Key Strengths
Low forward P/E ratio (6.57) suggesting potential value if operations stabilize
Attractive PEG ratio (0.65) relative to projected earnings
Consistent history of beating quarterly earnings estimates (3/4 last 4 quarters)
Strong gross margin (74.58%) indicating core product value
Positive 1-year price performance (+19.6%) despite fundamental headwinds
Key Risks
Critical liquidity risk with a current ratio of 0.53
Unsustainable dividend payout ratio of 461.54%
Severe deterioration in financial health (Piotroski F-Score 1/9)
Negative profitability metrics including ROE (-29.77%) and Profit Margin (-32.36%)
Significant YoY EPS decline of -44.4%
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$23.5
-13.5% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
32
Weak
55
30
45
10
20
AI Verdict
High Risk / Value Trap
Key drivers: Piotroski F-Score 1/9, Unsustainable Payout Ratio, Liquidity Crisis (Current Ratio < 1.0), Negative Net Income
Confidence
90%
Value
55/100
Forward P/E 6.57, PEG 0.65
Positives
- Low Forward P/E
- Low PEG Ratio
Watchpoints
- Negative Profit Margins
- Price/Book at 1.24 despite negative ROE
Future
30/100
Declining growth metrics across revenue and earnings
Positives
- Analyst target price of $35.67
Watchpoints
- Negative YoY Revenue Growth (-7.10%)
- Negative YoY EPS Growth (-44.4%)
Past
45/100
Historical beats contrasted with current trend decay
Positives
- Strong earnings surprise track record
- 5-year price appreciation (+125.3%)
Watchpoints
- Recent Q/Q EPS decline (-10.8%)
Health
10/100
Piotroski F-Score indicates extreme weakness
Positives
- ROA remains slightly positive (1.25%)
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score 1/9
- Current Ratio 0.53
- Debt/Equity 1.43
Dividend
20/100
Dividend strength score 40/100
Positives
- High nominal yield (6.63%)
Watchpoints
- Payout ratio of 461.54% is mathematically unsustainable
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$27.16
Analyst Target
$35.67
Upside/Downside
+31.3%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for NOG and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-04-30
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
NOG
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.
Primary
|
+125.3% | -4.6% | +19.6% | +31.9% | -7.1% | +1.0% |
|
DHT
DHT Holdings, Inc.
Peer
|
+317.7% | +130.8% | +79.7% | +48.1% | +1.6% | -1.4% |
|
DK
Delek US Holdings, Inc.
Peer
|
+131.3% | +146.5% | +255.3% | +23.7% | +2.1% | +18.4% |
|
BKV
BKV Corporation
Peer
|
+56.5% | +56.5% | +6.5% | +43.1% | +2.9% | +7.3% |
|
EFXT
Enerflex Ltd.
Peer
|
+323.1% | +365.1% | +289.4% | +106.4% | +18.3% | +12.2% |
NOG
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.
Primary
5Y
+125.3%
3Y
-4.6%
1Y
+19.6%
6M
+31.9%
1M
-7.1%
1W
+1.0%
DHT
DHT Holdings, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+317.7%
3Y
+130.8%
1Y
+79.7%
6M
+48.1%
1M
+1.6%
1W
-1.4%
DK
Delek US Holdings, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+131.3%
3Y
+146.5%
1Y
+255.3%
6M
+23.7%
1M
+2.1%
1W
+18.4%
BKV
BKV Corporation
Peer
5Y
+56.5%
3Y
+56.5%
1Y
+6.5%
6M
+43.1%
1M
+2.9%
1W
+7.3%
EFX
Enerflex Ltd.
Peer
5Y
+323.1%
3Y
+365.1%
1Y
+289.4%
6M
+106.4%
1M
+18.3%
1W
+12.2%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
N/A
Forward P/E
6.57
PEG Ratio
0.65
P/B Ratio
1.24
P/S Ratio
1.49
EV/Revenue
2.79
EV/EBITDA
5.87
Market Cap
$2.87B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
-32.36%
Operating Margin
-128.17%
Gross Margin
74.58%
ROE
-29.77%
ROA
1.25%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
-7.1%
Earnings Growth
N/A
Q/Q Revenue Growth
-6.25%
Q/Q Earnings Growth
N/A
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
1.43
Moderate
Current Ratio
0.53
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.5
Poor
Cash/Share
$0.35
Financial Statement Flow
Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q1 2026
Revenue
$0.5B
Gross Margin
32.9%
Op. Margin
28.0%
Net Margin
-96.1%
Total Assets
$5.5B
Liabilities
$3.7B
Equity
$1.8B
Debt/Equity
2.09x
Operating CF
$0.3B
CapEx
$-0.6B
Free Cash Flow
$-0.3B
FCF Yield
-96%
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-08-06
$N/A
2026-04-28
$0.74
+9.3% surprise
2026-02-25
$0.83
+7.6% surprise
2025-11-06
$1.03
+18.3% surprise
Energy Sector Comparison
Comparing NOG against 137 companies in the Energy sector
(14 bullish, 51 neutral, 72 bearish)
Return on Equity (ROE)
-29.77%
This Stock
vs
10.58%
Sector Avg
-381.3%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
-32.36%
This Stock
vs
7.94%
Sector Avg
-507.5%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
1.43
This Stock
vs
1.27
Sector Avg
+12.6%
(Higher)
Revenue Growth
-7.1%
This Stock
vs
19.16%
Sector Avg
-137.1%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
0.53
This Stock
vs
2.26
Sector Avg
-76.7%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
NOG
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $2.87B | - | -29.8% | -32.4% | $27.16 | |
|
DHT
DHT Holdings, Inc.
|
BULLISH | $2.91B | 13.79 | 19.4% | 38.3% | $18.06 | Compare |
|
DK
Delek US Holdings, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $2.79B | - | 8.2% | -0.2% | $46.67 | Compare |
|
BKV
BKV Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $2.73B | 58.69 | 2.7% | 5.5% | $28.17 | Compare |
|
EFXT
Enerflex Ltd.
|
BEARISH | $3.13B | 49.38 | 6.0% | 2.5% | $25.68 | Compare |
NOG
Northern Oil and...
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$2.9B
P/E
-
ROE
-29.8%
Price
$27.16
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | LASHER STUART G. | Director | Stock Award | 1,496 | - |
| 2026-03-31 | POMERANTZ JENNIFER S. | Director | Stock Award | 2,351 | - |
| 2026-03-31 | EASLEY ROY ERNEST | Director | Stock Award | 1,496 | - |
| 2026-03-31 | KIMBLE WILLIAM F | Director | Stock Award | 1,496 | - |
| 2026-03-31 | FRANTZ MICHAEL A | Director | Stock Award | 1,496 | - |
| 2026-03-31 | AKRADI BAHRAM | Director | Stock Award | 3,933 | - |
| 2026-03-31 | MEIER LISA G | Director | Stock Award | 1,496 | - |
| 2026-03-16 | DIRLAM ADAM A | President | Stock Award | 36,241 | - |
| 2026-03-16 | O'GRADY NICHOLAS L | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 52,391 | - |
| 2026-03-16 | EVANS JAMES B | Chief Technology Officer | Stock Award | 12,044 | - |
| 2026-03-16 | ROMSLO ERIK J | Officer | Stock Award | 10,839 | - |
| 2026-03-16 | ALLEN CHAD WILLIAM | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 13,850 | - |
| 2026-02-09 | DIRLAM ADAM A | President | Stock Award | 11,642 | - |
| 2026-02-09 | O'GRADY NICHOLAS L | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 29,688 | - |
| 2026-02-09 | EVANS JAMES B | Chief Technology Officer | Stock Award | 5,073 | - |
LASHER STUART G.
Director
2026-03-31
1,496 shares
POMERANTZ JENNIFER S.
Director
2026-03-31
2,351 shares
EASLEY ROY ERNEST
Director
2026-03-31
1,496 shares
KIMBLE WILLIAM F
Director
2026-03-31
1,496 shares
FRANTZ MICHAEL A
Director
2026-03-31
1,496 shares
AKRADI BAHRAM
Director
2026-03-31
3,933 shares
MEIER LISA G
Director
2026-03-31
1,496 shares
DIRLAM ADAM A
President
2026-03-16
36,241 shares
O'GRADY NICHOLAS L
Chief Executive Officer
2026-03-16
52,391 shares
EVANS JAMES B
Chief Technology Officer
2026-03-16
12,044 shares
ROMSLO ERIK J
Officer
2026-03-16
10,839 shares
ALLEN CHAD WILLIAM
Chief Financial Officer
2026-03-16
13,850 shares
DIRLAM ADAM A
President
2026-02-09
11,642 shares
O'GRADY NICHOLAS L
Chief Executive Officer
2026-02-09
29,688 shares
EVANS JAMES B
Chief Technology Officer
2026-02-09
5,073 shares
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
SEC Filings
Recent regulatory filings from the SEC EDGAR database
10-Q
DEF 14A
8-K
10-K
8-K
8-K
8-K
8-K
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR. AI summaries generated automatically.
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
9 analysts
Citigroup
2026-04-14
Buy
Buy
Citigroup
2026-03-31
Buy
Buy
B of A Securities
2026-03-24
Buy
Buy
Piper Sandler
2026-03-12
Neutral
Neutral
Citigroup
2026-03-11
Buy
Buy
Piper Sandler
2026-03-05
Neutral
Neutral
Morgan Stanley
2026-01-23
Underweight
Underweight
RBC Capital
2026-01-20
Sector Perform
Sector Perform
Mizuho
2025-12-12
Neutral
Neutral
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning NOG from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
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