NRG
BEARISH
$155.58
Live
NRG Energy, Inc. · NYSE
Target $201.76
(+29.7%)
$114.0
52W Range
$189.96
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated May 01, 2026
Market cap
$33.04B
P/E
38.8
ROE
41.5%
Profit margin
2.8%
Debt/Equity
9.89
Dividend yield
1.22%
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
85%
NRG exhibits a severe disconnect between its current market price ($155.58) and its deterministic value markers, with a Graham Number of $22.11 and an Intrinsic Value of $28.07. While the Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates stable health, this is overshadowed by an extreme Debt/Equity ratio of 9.89 and a Price/Book ratio of 28.73, which are highly atypical for the utilities sector. Despite bullish analyst targets and revenue growth, the massive insider sell-off of over $5 billion and a -91.3% collapse in YoY earnings suggest significant internal risk. The stock is currently trading at a massive premium that is not supported by fundamental value metrics.
Key Strengths
Strong revenue growth of 13.70% YoY
High Return on Equity (ROE) of 41.55%
Attractive Forward P/E of 13.67 suggesting expected earnings recovery
Consistent history of beating earnings estimates in the last 4 quarters
Strong 5-year price appreciation (+399.8%)
Key Risks
Extreme leverage with a Debt/Equity ratio of 9.89
Severe earnings contraction (-91.30% YoY)
Massive valuation gap relative to Graham Number and Intrinsic Value
Heavy insider selling totaling $5.29 billion
Very high Price/Book ratio (28.73) indicating potential overvaluation
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$32.5
-79.1% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
40
Moderate
15
50
65
30
40
AI Verdict
Overvalued / High Risk
Key drivers: Extreme Debt/Equity, Valuation Gap, Insider Selling, Earnings Volatility
Confidence
90%
Value
15/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Forward P/E is reasonable
Watchpoints
- Price is ~7x the Graham Number
- P/B ratio is astronomical at 28.73
- Trailing P/E of 38.80 is high for utilities
Future
50/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Revenue growth is positive
- Analyst target price is significantly higher ($201.76)
Watchpoints
- Recent earnings growth is deeply negative (-91.3%)
- High sensitivity to regulatory and environmental risks (Clean Air Act)
Past
65/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Exceptional 5-year and 3-year price performance
- Recent trend of beating EPS estimates
Watchpoints
- High volatility in quarterly EPS surprises
Health
30/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 is stable
- Current ratio of 1.64 shows adequate short-term liquidity
Watchpoints
- Debt/Equity of 9.89 is dangerously high compared to peer average of 1.57
Dividend
40/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Sustainable payout ratio (43.89%)
Watchpoints
- Low dividend yield (1.22%) for a utility stock
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$155.58
Analyst Target
$201.76
Upside/Downside
+29.7%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for NRG and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-04-30
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
NRG
NRG Energy, Inc.
Primary
|
+399.8% | +385.3% | +43.7% | -9.6% | +6.5% | +0.7% |
|
DTE
DTE Energy Company
Peer
|
+45.3% | +44.3% | +11.1% | +7.7% | +0.7% | +2.4% |
|
FTS
Fortis Inc.
Peer
|
+52.4% | +42.5% | +19.1% | +10.5% | +1.8% | -0.9% |
|
CNP
CenterPoint Energy, Inc.
Peer
|
+101.1% | +49.0% | +14.7% | +8.6% | +0.9% | -1.2% |
|
AEE
Ameren Corporation
Peer
|
+57.8% | +30.0% | +12.9% | +3.7% | +2.5% | -1.6% |
NRG
NRG Energy, Inc.
Primary
5Y
+399.8%
3Y
+385.3%
1Y
+43.7%
6M
-9.6%
1M
+6.5%
1W
+0.7%
DTE
DTE Energy Company
Peer
5Y
+45.3%
3Y
+44.3%
1Y
+11.1%
6M
+7.7%
1M
+0.7%
1W
+2.4%
FTS
Fortis Inc.
Peer
5Y
+52.4%
3Y
+42.5%
1Y
+19.1%
6M
+10.5%
1M
+1.8%
1W
-0.9%
CNP
CenterPoint Energy, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+101.1%
3Y
+49.0%
1Y
+14.7%
6M
+8.6%
1M
+0.9%
1W
-1.2%
AEE
Ameren Corporation
Peer
5Y
+57.8%
3Y
+30.0%
1Y
+12.9%
6M
+3.7%
1M
+2.5%
1W
-1.6%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
38.8
Forward P/E
13.67
PEG Ratio
1.37
P/B Ratio
28.73
P/S Ratio
1.08
EV/Revenue
1.5
EV/EBITDA
15.5
Market Cap
$33.04B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
2.81%
Operating Margin
4.26%
Gross Margin
19.38%
ROE
41.55%
ROA
4.57%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+13.7%
Earnings Growth
-91.3%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
+13.7%
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-89.7%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
9.89
High debt
Current Ratio
1.64
Good
Quick Ratio
1.09
Good
Cash/Share
$21.93
Financial Statement Flow
Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025
Revenue
$7.8B
Gross Margin
18.4%
Op. Margin
4.3%
Net Margin
0.9%
Total Assets
$29.1B
Liabilities
$27.5B
Equity
$1.7B
Debt/Equity
16.33x
Operating CF
$0.1B
CapEx
$-0.3B
Free Cash Flow
$-0.2B
FCF Yield
-138%
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-05-06
$N/A
2026-02-24
$1.04
+16.4% surprise
2025-11-06
$2.78
+30.7% surprise
2025-08-06
$1.73
+5.0% surprise
Utilities Sector Comparison
Comparing NRG against 77 companies in the Utilities sector
(4 bullish, 45 neutral, 28 bearish)
P/E Ratio
38.8
This Stock
vs
26.67
Sector Avg
+45.5%
(Expensive)
Return on Equity (ROE)
41.55%
This Stock
vs
0.07%
Sector Avg
+62601.5%
(Excellent)
Profit Margin
2.81%
This Stock
vs
6.82%
Sector Avg
-58.7%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
9.89
This Stock
vs
1.66
Sector Avg
+496.0%
(Higher)
Revenue Growth
13.7%
This Stock
vs
22.3%
Sector Avg
-38.6%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
1.64
This Stock
vs
1.15
Sector Avg
+42.6%
(Stronger)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
NRG
NRG Energy, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $33.04B | 38.8 | 41.5% | 2.8% | $155.58 | |
|
DTE
DTE Energy Company
|
NEUTRAL | $30.59B | 20.91 | 12.2% | 9.2% | $147.03 | Compare |
|
FTS
Fortis Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $28.68B | 22.62 | 7.6% | 14.8% | $56.33 | Compare |
|
CNP
CenterPoint Energy, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $27.78B | 26.06 | 9.6% | 11.4% | $42.47 | Compare |
|
AEE
Ameren Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $27.68B | 19.79 | 11.4% | 16.3% | $102.32 | Compare |
NRG
NRG Energy, Inc.
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$33.0B
P/E
38.8
ROE
41.5%
Price
$155.58
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-16 | KINNEY VIRGINIA | Officer | Sale | 5,000 | $783,250 |
| 2026-03-04 | NANUS DAVID | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Sale | 16,129,269 | $2,645,200,116 |
| 2026-03-04 | LS POWER EQUITY ADVISORS, L.L.C | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Sale | 16,129,269 | $2,645,200,116 |
| 2026-02-09 | KAPOOR SANJAY | Director | Stock Award | 1,453 | - |
| 2026-02-02 | COBEN LAWRENCE S | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 759 | - |
| 2026-02-02 | ZLOTNIK MARCIE C | Director | Stock Award | 23 | - |
| 2026-02-02 | CURCI BRIAN | General Counsel | Stock Award | 41 | - |
| 2026-02-02 | PRUNER ALEXANDRA | Director | Stock Award | 98 | - |
| 2026-02-02 | SPENCER GERALD ALFRED | Officer | Stock Award | 13 | - |
| 2026-02-02 | CHUNG BRUCE | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 59 | - |
| 2026-02-02 | KINNEY VIRGINIA | Officer | Stock Award | 31 | - |
| 2026-02-02 | LIYANEARACHCHI DAK | Chief Technology Officer | Stock Award | 22 | - |
| 2026-02-02 | BENTLEY BRAD | Officer | Stock Award | 103 | - |
| 2026-02-02 | CARRILLO ANTONIO | Director | Stock Award | 60 | - |
| 2026-02-02 | ABRAHAM SPENCER E. J.D. | Director | Stock Award | 248 | - |
KINNEY VIRGINIA
Officer
2026-03-16
5,000 shares
·
$783,250
NANUS DAVID
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
2026-03-04
16,129,269 shares
·
$2,645,200,116
LS POWER EQUITY ADVISORS, L.L.C
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
2026-03-04
16,129,269 shares
·
$2,645,200,116
KAPOOR SANJAY
Director
2026-02-09
1,453 shares
COBEN LAWRENCE S
Chief Executive Officer
2026-02-02
759 shares
ZLOTNIK MARCIE C
Director
2026-02-02
23 shares
CURCI BRIAN
General Counsel
2026-02-02
41 shares
PRUNER ALEXANDRA
Director
2026-02-02
98 shares
SPENCER GERALD ALFRED
Officer
2026-02-02
13 shares
CHUNG BRUCE
Chief Financial Officer
2026-02-02
59 shares
KINNEY VIRGINIA
Officer
2026-02-02
31 shares
LIYANEARACHCHI DAK
Chief Technology Officer
2026-02-02
22 shares
BENTLEY BRAD
Officer
2026-02-02
103 shares
CARRILLO ANTONIO
Director
2026-02-02
60 shares
ABRAHAM SPENCER E. J.D.
Director
2026-02-02
248 shares
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
SEC Filings
Recent regulatory filings from the SEC EDGAR database
8-K
8-K
DEF 14A
8-K
8-K
10-K
NRG's 10-K filing dated February 24, 2026, indicates the company utilizes Adjusted EBITDA as a key performance metric and is subject to the Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax. While specific financial results were not provided in the excerpts, the glossary suggests operational risks related to the Clean Air Act and Asset Retirement Obligations.
8-K
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR. AI summaries generated automatically.
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
17 analysts
Morgan Stanley
2026-04-21
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Barclays
2026-03-31
Overweight
Overweight
Wolfe Research
2026-03-18
Peer Perform
Outperform
Jefferies
2026-01-27
Buy
Buy
Wells Fargo
2026-01-20
Overweight
Overweight
UBS
2025-12-09
Buy
BMO Capital
2025-11-07
Market Perform
Market Perform
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning NRG from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.