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Geopolitical Score 98 Bearish

Strait of Hormuz Traffic Plummets Amid US-Iran Blockade and Conflict

Apr 15, 2026 18:13 UTC
CL=F, BZ=F, XLE, USO
Immediate term

Tanker transits through the critical Strait of Hormuz have dropped 90% below pre-war levels, triggering the most significant oil supply disruption in history. Despite a ceasefire agreement in early April, a US Navy blockade and ongoing territorial disputes continue to stifle global energy flows.

  • Traffic 90% lower than February 27 levels
  • US Navy blockade of Iranian ports currently in effect
  • 20% of global crude oil supply normally transits the strait
  • IEA warns of severe pressure on global energy prices and economy
  • Limited VLCC activity observed including Chinese-owned vessels

Global energy markets are facing unprecedented pressure as shipping data reveals a near-total collapse of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Recent transits have fallen to 90% below the levels recorded on February 27, just prior to the escalation of hostilities between the United States, Israel, and Iran. The waterway, which typically handles approximately 20% of the world's crude oil supplies, has become a primary theater of conflict. While a ceasefire was reached on April 7, the US Navy has since implemented a blockade of maritime traffic entering or exiting Iranian ports following the failure of recent diplomatic negotiations last weekend. Shipping data from LSEG indicates only a handful of vessels are braving the strait. Notable movements include the RHN, a Chinese-owned Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) sailing under the Curaçao flag capable of transporting 2 million barrels, and another VLCC named the Alicia. These represent a fraction of the usual volume as the US and Iran contest control of the sea lane. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has identified the restoration of flows through the strait as the single most critical factor for stabilizing global energy prices and easing pressure on the worldwide economy. The current stalemate continues to fuel extreme volatility in crude markets as the world grapples with the largest supply shock on record.

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