Equities Hit Record Highs on U.S.-Iran Peace Hopes, but Crypto Options Signal Caution

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 climbed to record highs on Thursday, capping a two-week rally fueled by reports that the U.S. and Iran have reached an 'in principle' agreement to extend diplomatic negotiations past the April 7 ceasefire expiry. While equity markets are aggressively pricing in a resolution to the Persian Gulf conflict, other asset classes remain hesitant. In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin rose to $74,935, gaining 5.4% over the week. Ether showed even stronger momentum, climbing 8.1% to $2,360. This strength is supported by robust on-chain fundamentals, with Ethereum network transactions hitting a record 200.4 million in the first quarter and stablecoin supply reaching an all-time high of $180 billion. Despite the spot price gains, professional derivatives desks warn that the rally lacks broad conviction. Data from QCP Capital indicates that Bitcoin's move is spot-led rather than a result of general re-risking. Funding rates on perpetual contracts remain negative, and 30-day risk reversals show a continued preference for downside protection over upside exposure. Broader macro indicators remain mixed. Brent crude ticked up to $95 as the U.S. continues its naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which remains effectively closed, while gold held steady near $4,800. Traders are now closely monitoring whether the U.S.-Iran framework survives detailed negotiations regarding the nuclear program and maritime access before next week's deadline.